当前我国地震预报面临的主要科学问题及其建议

论述了我国目前在长期、中期和短临预报中所面临的主要科学问题，提出了从哪些方面进行突破的建议。     

Earthquake—generating Structure Revealed by 1999 Sichuan mianzhu Earthquake Sequence with Ms=5.0

Through the accurate determination of hypocenter location,the measurement of the main focal mechanism solutions and the analyses of time dependent processes for Sichuan Mianzhu earthquake sequence with Ms=5.0 occurred along the middle segment of Longmenshan fault zone on November 30,1999,the distribution of focal depth section,the stress relase and seismicity features are given to reveal the earthquake-geneating structure of the earthquake sequence.The obtained results show the activity features for this sequence as follows:(1) There is no obvious foreshock,the accumulated strain energy releases in nearly pulse way,fluctuation of the seismic activity level is not quite evident during the duration of the sequence,and the statistical relation between the large events and the small events is less compatible with the traditional G-R estimation;(2) The epicenters of the earthquake sequence are not distributed on the main Longmenshan piedmont faults emerging out ground,but near the hidden Longmenshan piedmont faults.The direction of epicenter distribution is not very coincident with the fault strikes.The microscopic epicenters are relatively far from the macroscopic epicenters,The focal depths range from 5km to 16km;(3) The fractures of focal fault plane with the NE strike appear out the strike-slip displacement with a few overthrust components under the major principal compressive stress of NNE direction.From these,we consider it should be paid more attentions to the underground hidden faults near the ground fault zone on a large scale for their generating earthquake risk.     

上海地震台阵的地震定位方法

详细介绍了上海地震台阵数据处理软件系统中的地震定位方法，用台阵的聚束方法得到地震的方位角和视慢度，根据统计得到的视慢度－震中距表推算震中距。并结合了地震台网的定位方法，由单台记录的各类主要震相从J－B走时表得到震中距，然后进行地震定位。该定位方法可对近震、远震进行定位处理，并由深震相得到震源深度。     

Precise revision of the garnet-muscovite geothermometer

The garnet-muscovite geothermometer was refined through empirical calibration by using natural rocks metamorphosed under the physical conditions of 238—1306 MPa and 490—700℃. Input temperatures and pressures were determined through simultaneously applying the garnet-biotite geothermometer and the garnet-biotite-plagioclase-quartz barometer, assuming that all FeO in muscovite and garnet be ferrous. Garnet was treated as the asymmetric quaternary solid solution, and muscovite as the symmetric binary solid solution. Input muscovite compositions include Fe atoms between 0.03—0.19 and Mg atoms between 0.04—0.16 on the basis of 11 oxygen atoms, and input garnet compositions include spessartine fractions between 0.01—0.289, grossular fractions between 0.028—0.273, and the Fe/Mg ratio between 3.387-18.986. The resulting garnet-muscovite geothermometer reproduces temperatures within (50℃ compared with the garnet-biotite thermometer. Total random error of ±37℃ of the new thermometer may stem from the pressure uncertainty of ±200 MPa, and uncertainties of ±5% of Fe and Mg components in muscovite, and ±5% of Fe, Mg, Mn and Ca components in garnet, altogether. When there exist 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% and 50% Fe3+ in muscovite, respectively, the computed garnet-muscovite temperatures will be 1—6℃, 2—12℃, 3—16℃, 5—24℃ and 7—29℃, respectively, lower than those obtained when assuming that all FeO be ferrous. The new garnet-muscovite geothermometer can efficiently reflect temperature change of typical prograde sequences and contact aureole rocks, and may be applied to low- to high-grade and low- to high-pressure metamorphic rocks.     

东南极格罗夫山变基性岩初步研究

东南极格罗夫山存在一套经历了峰期麻粒岩相变质作用的镁铁质麻粒岩和斜长角闪岩。对含石榴石的镁铁质麻粒岩的详细研究则显示了近等温降压 (ITD)的顺时针PT演化轨迹 ,与拉斯曼丘陵有相似的演化历史。岩石的主量元素组成和玄武岩一致 ,并且具有拉斑玄武岩演化趋势。进一步的地球化学研究表明 ,这套玄武岩为洋岛型玄武岩 (OIB)和洋中脊型玄武岩(MORB)的组合。OIB型具有大体类似的地球化学性质 ,它们均富集Ti(TiO2 =2 .68% )、REE( =2 0 2 μg/g)、LREE[(La/Yb) N=4.8]、Ti/Y( =343)、Zr/Y( =3.1 ) ,具洋岛玄武岩的特征 ,推测岩浆来源于富集地幔源区 (EM)。而MORB型以低Ti (TiO2 =1 .1 %— 1 .31 % ) ,明显低于OIB的P的含量 (P2 O5=0 .1 %— 0 .2 % ) ,低REE ( 4 7— 93μg/g)、LREE/HREE( 2 .2 7— 2 .5 4 )、(La/Yb) N( =1 .30— 1 .62 )为特征 ,具洋中脊玄武岩的特征。MORB和OIB组合的出现说明在泛非期该区可能存在过洋盆。     

Velocity profile of a sand cloud blowing over a gravel surface

Particle dynamic analyzer (PDA) measurement technology was used to study the turbulent characteristics and the variation with height of the mean horizontal (in the downwind direction) and vertical (in the upward direction) particle velocity of a sand cloud blowing over a gravel surface. The results show that the mean horizontal particle velocity of the cloud increases with height, while the mean vertical velocity decreases with height. The variation of the mean horizontal velocity with height is, to some extent, similar to the wind profile that increases logarithmically with height in the turbulent boundary layer. The variation of the mean vertical velocity with height is much more complex than that of the mean horizontal velocity. The increase of the resultant mean velocity with height can be expressed by a modified power function. Particle turbulence in the downwind direction decreases with height, while that in the vertical direction is complex. For fine sands (0.2–0.3 mm and 0.3–0.4 mm), there is a tendency for the particle turbulence to increase with height. In the very near-surface layer (<4 mm), the movement of blown sand particles is very complex due to the rebound of particles on the bed and the interparticle collisions in the air. Wind starts to accelerate particle movement about 4 mm from the surface. The initial rebound on the bed and the interparticle collisions in the air have a profound effect on particle movement below that height, where particle concentration is very high and wind velocity is very low.     

基于GIS的黄河上游龙羊峡库区生态环境遥感监测研究

本项研究以黄河上游生态环境严重退化的龙羊峡库区为研究区，应用遥感与GIS一体化的方法，建立了库区生态环境动态监测信息系统。在系统的支持下，利用多时相、多波段TM遥感数据，对库区近十年来生态环境变化进行监测分析，揭示了库区土地沙漠化、水土流失、土地利用／土地覆盖的现状，以及建库近十年来生态环境时空演化的过程与发展趋势，为库区生态环境治理提供科学依据。本项研究利用遥感和GIS技术，采用生态环境综合分类系统，在一次分类处理中通过多层次不同级别的组合获得了基于同一信息源的土地沙漠化、草场盖度、土地利用处地覆盖等多种环境类型信息，并利用环境信息模型对库区的土壤侵蚀进行了评价。基于GIS的分类后再处理使遥感分类精度有了一定程度的提高。研究表明，在GIS的支持下充分利用遥感信息监测与评价生态环境，是区域生态环境定量化研究的有效途径。     

青藏公路铁路沿线生态系统特征及道路修建对其影响

根据2001—08和2002—08月野外调查数据及2001年1：100万中国植被图、1996年1：400万青藏高原植被区划图和2000年青藏铁路沿线自然保护区分布及功能区界调整图，以青藏公路铁路沿线植被生态系统为研究对象，运用ARCVIEW和ARC／INFO软件研究青藏公路铁路建设对沿线生态系统结构的影响，结论如下：①青藏公路铁路南北跨越9个纬度，东西跨越12个经度，共穿越青东祁连山地草原地带、柴达木山地荒漠地带、青南高寒草甸草原地带、羌塘高寒草原地带、果洛那曲高寒灌丛草甸地带和藏南山地灌丛草原地带6个自然区，对植被类型的统计结果显示了地带性。②青藏公路铁路的建设对生态系统产生直接的切割，使景观更加破碎。③青藏公路铁路的建设直接破坏沿线植被生态系统(主要为50m缓冲区内)，年损失总净初级生产量为30504．62t，损失总生物量432919．25～1436104．3t／a。损失总净初级生产量占1km缓冲区年净初级生产量535005．07～535740．11t／a的百分比为5．70％，占10km缓冲区年净初级生产量3408950．45～3810480．92t／a的0．80～0．89％；损失生物量占1km缓冲区生物总量7502971．85～25488342．71t／a的5．70％，占10km缓冲区总生物量43615065．35～164150665．37t／a的0．80％～0．89％。     

Dynamic processes of a simple linear dune—a study in the Taklimakan Sand Sea, China

Samples of dune sands, surveys of the morphology and field measurements of wind velocity and direction of a simple linear dune in Taklimakan Sand Sea show that the airflow and sand flux vary with the change of wind direction on the dune surface. Decrease of the airflow stress on the lee flank does not result in much decrease of the sand flux because of the low threshold shear velocities and the airflow conditions. There are no significant relations between the sand flux on the lee flank and the angle of incidence of the airflow. The low threshold shear velocities and the maintenance of the sand flux at the lee flank are the main mechanisms keeping the linear shape of the dunes. Measurements of the sand flux shows that it reaches a maximum on the crest of the dune. The grain size of the transported sands has some differences compared to that of the dune surface. The sands transported are finer than that on the dune surface, but better sorted under the influence of the medium to low wind activity. The field experiment results exhibit that it is possible for the dunes to be shaped as linear dunes during the processes of accumulation and elongation.