The cost of achieving South Africa’s ‘fair share’ of global climate change mitigation

Global climate change mitigation action is hampered by systematic under-assessment of national ‘fair shares’, largely on the basis of perceived national interests. This paper aims to inform discussions centred on South Africa’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) by estimating (1) emissions reduction pathways for the country using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator (CERC) assuming a maximum 2°C aggregate warming target and (2) the likely economy-wide net mitigation costs or savings associated with reaching these pathways if known lower-cost mitigation measures, identified through the national mitigation potential analysis, are prioritised. The cumulative net savings associated with achieving the CERC ‘fair share’ emissions pathway, assuming the moderate use of low carbon power generation measures, would reach $5.3 billion by 2030. Net savings could be substantially greater reaching $46.8 billion by 2030 assuming power generation focuses on moving towards full decarbonisation. An unconditional commitment to the mitigation action implied by the ‘fair share’ emissions pathway therefore seems reasonable and prudent purely from the point of view of net country-wide savings. Only if power generation moves towards full decarbonisation would there be a reasonable chance of achieving the more ambitious CERC domestic emissions pathway. However, the significant additional cost associated with achieving the domestic emissions pathway should be conditional on international assistance.

Key policy insights

• South Africa can only achieve its ‘fair share’ of the global mitigation effort if greater use is made of renewable energy options, and can realise significant net savings if it does so.

• Further emissions reductions would incur costs and require significant upscaling of the share of renewable energy and full implementation of all non-power generation mitigation measures available.

• Committing to this further mitigation action contingent on international finance would both strengthen the nation’s position in climate negotiations and support the provision of finance for those vulnerable developing nations that bear little or no responsibility for climate change.

     

Surface water quality in a sulfide mineral‐rich arid zone in North‐Central Chile: Learning from a complex past,addressing an uncertain future

This study presents an analysis of up to 30 years of hydrological variables and selected water quality parameters (pH, SO₄, Fe, Cu, and As) in the upper area of the Elqui River basin in North‐Central Chile. A correlation analysis determined statistically significant positive relationship for SO₄‐Cu, Fe‐As, and Fe‐Cu. In terms of historical behaviour, no statistically significant trends were detected for precipitation or temperature. In contrast, for flow, there is an overall decreasing pattern for the entire area of study, although only in one case this trend was statistically significant. Along with the aforementioned analysis, a characterization of the flow‐water quality relationships is considered for the time period analyzed. Although erratic behaviours were confirmed, a negative (i.e., inverse) flow‐concentration relationship was identified for SO₄, a positive (i.e., direct) relationship for Fe, and undefined relationships for As and Cu were obtained. From these analyses and based on previous studies on projections regarding climate change for the Andean region, and in particular for the upper Elqui zone, an estimation of the possible effects of the change in water regimes on water quality in the area of study is developed. It is likely that a decrease in surface flow, as a consequence of climate change could translate into improvements in water quality in terms of Fe and eventually As and Cu, but into an impairment in the case of SO₄. In any case, this is a complex situation that demands special attention in the face of industrial activities that could be developed in tributaries like the Claro River, which currently play an important role in depurating or diluting contaminants in the waters of the Elqui River. Finally, it should be noted that this study addresses an issue that goes beyond the local interest and could be used as a reference to compare other transitional environments containing sulphide ores or areas of hydrothermal alterations, which are considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change and variability.     

Evaluating the persistence of post‐fire residual patches in the eastern Canadian boreal mixedwood forest

In boreal forest ecosystems, wildfire severity (i.e. the extent of fire‐related tree mortality) is affected by environmental conditions and fire intensity. A burned area usually includes tree patches that partially or entirely escaped fire, called ‘residual patches’. Although the occurrence of residual patches has been extensively documented, their persistence through time, and thus their capacity to escape several consecutive fires, has not yet been investigated. Macroscopic charcoal particles embedded in organic soils were used to reconstruct the fire history of 13 residual patches of the eastern Canadian boreal mixedwood forest. Our results display the existence of two types of residual patches: (i) patches that only escaped fire by chance, maybe because of local site or meteorological conditions unsuitable for fire spread (random patches), and (ii) patches with lower fire susceptibility, also called ‘fire refuges’ that escaped at least two consecutive fires, probably because of particular site characteristics. Fire refuges can escape fire for more than 500 years, up to several thousand years, and probably burn only during exceptionally severe fire events. Special conservation efforts could target fire refuges owing to their old age, long ecological continuity and potential specific biological diversity associated to different microhabitats.     

A 40 ka record of temperature and permafrost conditions in northwestern Europe from noble gases in the Ledo‐Paniselian Aquifer (Belgium)

The Ledo‐Paniselian Aquifer in Belgium offers unique opportunities to study periglacial groundwater recharge during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), as it was located close to the southern boundary of the ice sheets at that time. Groundwater residence times determined by ¹⁴C and ⁴He reveal a sequence of Holocene and Pleistocene groundwaters and a gap between about 14 and 21 ka, indicating permafrost conditions which inhibited groundwater recharge. In this paper, a dataset of noble gas measurements is used to study the climatic evolution of the region. The derived recharge temperatures indicate that soil temperatures in the periods just before and after the recharge gap were only slightly above freezing, supporting the hypothesis that permafrost caused the recharge gap. The inferred glacial cooling of 9.5°C is the largest found so far by the noble gas method. Yet, compared to other palaeoclimate reconstructions for the region, recharge temperatures deduced from noble gases for the cold periods tend to be rather high. Most likely, this is due to soil temperatures being several degrees higher than air temperatures during periods with extended snow cover. Thus the noble‐gas‐derived glacial cooling of 9.5°C is only a lower limit of the maximum cooling during the LGM. Some samples younger than the recharge gap are affected by degassing, possibly related to gas production during recharge in part of the recharge area, especially during times of melting permafrost. The findings of this study, such as the occurrence of a recharge gap and degassing related to permafrost and its melting, are significant for groundwater dynamics and geochemistry in periglacial areas. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of the earth's rotation on ground water motion

The average pore velocity of ground water according to Darcy's law is a function of the fluid pressure gradient and the gravitational force (per unit volume of ground water) and of aquifer properties. There is also an acceleration exerted on ground water that arises from the Earth's rotation. The magnitude and direction of this rotation-induced force are determined in exact mathematical form in this article. It is calculated that the gravitational force is at least 300 times larger than the largest rotation-induced force anywhere on Earth, the latter force being maximal along the equator and approximately equal to 34 N/m(3) there. This compares with a gravitational force of approximately 10(4) N/m(3).