Drought characterization using a new copula-based trivariate approach

Meteorological drought is a natural climatic phenomenon that occurs over various time scales and may cause significant economic, environmental and social damages. Three drought characteristics, namely duration, average severity and peak intensity, are important variables in water resources planning and decision making. This study presents a new method for construction of three-dimensional copulas to describe the joint distribution function of meteorological drought characteristics. Using the inference function for margins, the parameters for six types of copulas were tested to select the best-fitted copulas. According to the values of the log-likelihood function, Galambos, Frank and Clayton were the selected copula models to describe the dependence structure for pairs of duration–severity, severity–peak and duration–peak, respectively. Trivariate cumulative probability, conditional probability and drought return period were also investigated based on the derived copula-based joint distributions. The proposed model was evaluated over the observed data of a Qazvin synoptic station, and the results were compared with the empirical probabilities. For measuring the model accuracy, R ², root mean square error (RMSE) and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) criteria were used. Results indicated that R ², RMSE and NSE were equal to 0.91, 0.098 and 0.668, respectively, which demonstrate sufficient accuracy of the proposed model. Drought probabilistic characteristics can provide useful information for water resource planning and management.     

Stability of sandy slopes under seepage conditions

Stability against shallow mass sliding in saturated sandy slopes under seepage depends on the flow direction and hydraulic gradient, particularly near the ground surface. Two modes of instability i.e., Coulomb sliding and liquefaction have been studied and the critical flow directions discussed. The utility of the numerical approach in solving complex flow problems with irregular boundaries and surface topography is demonstrated by means of two slope examples with different internal drainage conditions. The numerical results for the seepage gradients at different points are compared with those predicted by the simple expression derived in this study, and the corresponding effects on the stability are evaluated.     

Forecasting monthly inflow with extreme seasonal variation using the hybrid SARIMA-ANN model

The optimal operation of dam reservoirs can be programmed and managed by predicting the inflow to these structures more accurately. To this end, there are various linear and nonlinear models. However, some hydrological problems like inflow with extreme seasonal variation are not purely linear or nonlinear. To improve the forecasting accuracy of this phenomenon, a linear Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is combined with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. This new model is used to predict the monthly inflow to the Jamishan dam reservoir in West Iran. A comparison of the SARIMA and ANN models with the proposed hybrid model’s results is provided accordingly. More specifically, the models’ performance in forecasting base and flood flows is evaluated. The effect of changing the forecasting period length on the models’ accuracy is studied. The results of increasing the number of SARIMA model parameters up to five are investigated to achieve more accurate forecasting. The hybrid model predicts peak flood flows much better than the individual models, but SARIMA outperforms the other models in predicting base flow. The obtained results indicate that the hybrid model reduces the overall forecast error more than the ANN and SARIMA models. The coefficient of determination of the hybrid, ANN and SARIMA models were 0.72, 0.64 and 0.58, and the root mean squared error values were 1.02, 1.16 and 1.27 respectively, during the forecast period. Changing the forecasting length also indicated that these models can be used in the long term without increasing the forecast error.     

A nine-step approach for developing and implementing an “agricultural drought risk management plan”; case study: Alamut River basin in Qazvin,Iran

Occurrence of drought, as an inevitable natural climate feature, cannot be ceased while happening. However, costs of the consequences could be alleviated using mature scientific integrated approaches. To reduce the amount of damage, it is required to provide “Contingency” and “Mitigation” action plans. For this reason, development of efficient operating instructions for various regions based on weather conditions and field studies is needed as well as having a sophisticated understanding of socioeconomic situations. This paper describes an approach to provide the first national agricultural drought risk management plan for a river basin in Iran country as a pilot. The study lasted for 3 years as a national technical research project for the “soil conservation and watershed management research institute.” To reach the objectives, besides holding workshops and specialized think-tank meetings, field researches were done. Based on the socioeconomic data sources in the basin and the results of meetings by participation of local managers and residents, the final plan was developed. Moreover, in order to carry out this research, different climatic, agricultural and local information were collected in the watershed. In the next steps, potential risks and vulnerabilities of various agricultural sectors due to the hazard were evaluated. In this study, a nine-step approach to develop an agricultural drought risk management plan proposing different scientific–managerial phases based on the latest experts’ opinions, released international scientific best practices, and existing conditions governing the region was followed. With respect to the average income of US$ one million from agriculture and animal husbandry in the river basin, total drought loss varies from US$ 86,000 to US$ 258,000 for a range of light to very intense drought conditions, respectively. The setup of these nine executive phases defined monitoring, forecasting, and warning steps in working teams and managed the subprograms in partnership with stakeholders and decision-makers to mitigate the rate of drought damage from 30 to 47% (depending on the severity of the drought condition).

     

Modeling and assessing the effects of land use changes on runoff generation with the CLUE-s and WetSpa models

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Land use change is an important determinant of hydrological processes and is known to affect hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency,...     

Assessment of geomorphological bank evolution of the alluvial threshold rivers based on entropy concept parameters

The complex stream bank profiles in alluvial channels and rivers that are formed after reaching equilibrium has been a popular topic of research for many geomorphologists and river engineers. The entropy theory has recently been successfully applied to this problem. However, the existing methods restrict the further application of the entropy parameter to determine the cross-section slope of the river banks. To solve this limitation, we introduce a novel approach in the extraction of the equation based on the calculation of the entropy parameter (λ) and the transverse slope of the bank profile at threshold channel conditions. The effects of different hydraulic and geometric parameters are evaluated on a variation of the entropy parameter. Sensitivity analysis on the parameters affecting the entropy parameter shows that the most effective parameter on the λ-slope multiplier is the maximum slope of the bank profile and the dimensionless lateral distance of the river banks.     

Empirical modeling of plate load test moduli of soil via gene expression programming

New empirical models were developed to predict the soil deformation moduli using gene expression programming (GEP). The principal soil deformation parameters formulated were secant (E_s) and reloading (E_r) moduli. The proposed models relate E_s and E_r obtained from plate load-settlement curves to the basic soil physical properties. The best GEP models were selected after developing and controlling several models with different combinations of the influencing parameters. The experimental database used for developing the models was established upon a series of plate load tests conducted on different soil types at depths of 1–24 m. To verify the applicability of the derived models, they were employed to estimate the soil moduli of a part of test results that were not included in the analysis. The external validation of the models was further verified using several statistical criteria recommended by researchers. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the contributions of the parameters affecting E_s and E_r. The proposed models give precise estimates of the soil deformation moduli. The E_s prediction model provides considerably better results in comparison with the model developed for E_r. The simplified formulation for E_s significantly outperforms the empirical equations found in the literature. The derived models can reliably be employed for pre-design purposes.     

Development of new attenuation equation for subduction mechanisms in Malaysia water

The attenuation equation for far field earthquake is important because the earthquake occurring in neighboring countries can be felt in Malaysia. In this study, a new attenuation was generated using the regression method. It was developed to calculate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) onsite (offshore platform). The database consisting of more than 150 PGAs from 9 events of earthquakes recorded by the Seismology Station in Malaysia was used to develop the relationship. In addition, attenuation relationships for subduction mechanisms from previous researchers are then compared with the newly generated ones in this research. The new attenuation equation was also validated and used to calculate the acceleration for far field earthquake in a case study of offshore platform at a Terengganu seaside. The result of PGA from the new generated attenuation relationship was in a good match with previous attenuation equations.