Performance evaluation of the M8 algorithm to predict M7+ earthquakes in Turkey

The M8 algorithm is one of the most reliable intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction algorithms. The present study evaluates the ability of the M8 algorithm and its modified versions for predicting major events (M7+) in Turkey. Thirty different algorithms were developed by changing the radius of circle of investigation (CI) and the lower magnitude cutoff of the M8 algorithm. These modified algorithms were executed all over the territory of Turkey, and the results were evaluated using the error diagram. Each modified algorithm was executed for consecutive half-year intervals over a specified period of time. Subsequently, the seismic catalog was updated, and failures-to-predict ratio and the fraction of alarm were considered. Results showed that the location of areas of alarm change gradually over consecutive intervals, and no sudden changes can be observed. In addition, the annual changes of areas of alarm are not random and follow a pattern. This study also showed that the modified algorithm having a three to six annual average of events and a 393-km CI radius is an efficient algorithm for predicting the future seismic events in Turkey. This algorithm predicted six out of six target events, retrospectively, with a confidence level of 96.4 %. According to the obtained results, it will be possible to rely on this modified algorithm to predict near future earthquakes of Turkey. Furthermore, this study proves that it is possible to alter the M8 algorithm for being used in regional studies.     

Simulation of rainfall-runoff process using an artificial neural network (ANN) and field plots data

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Rainfall-runoff modeling is necessary for many hydrological studies, such as estimating peak discharges and designing hydraulic structures. The intensity and...     

Rock Type Identification Using Analysis of the Acoustic Signal Frequency Contents Propagated While Drilling Operation

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - One of the most important parameters specially in mining and oil drilling fields is the type of rocks. It is important to determine that rock structure is...     

First Record of Sexual Dimorphism in Toxasterid Echinoid Heteraster from the Early Cretaceous Deposits of the Kopet-Dagh Basin,NE Iran

Spatangoid echinoids belonging to Heteraster found in the Lower Cretaceous limestones and calcareous deposits of the Tirgan and Sarcheshmeh formations(Barremian–Aptian) in the Bahman jan-Bala stratigraphic section on the northern flank of the Borouj syncline, situated in the eastern Kopet-Dagh Basin, northeastern Iran are assessed as a sexually dimorphic species. Sexual dimorphism is a common feature in echinoids and, in this study of Heteraster renngarteni Poretzkaja, 1961, sexual dimorphism ha...     

Probabilistic analysis of an 80,000 m2 landslide in Shiraz,Iran

Landslides - Each year, so many devastating landslides occur all around the world causing a lot of life and economical losses. Many of these landslides take place in large populated cities where...     

Facies Analysis and Sequence Stratigraphy of Silurian Carbonate Ramps in the Turan (Kopeh-Dagh) and Central Iran Plates with Emphasis on Gondwana Tectonic Event

Two sections from the Silurian deposits in the Central Iran Micro and Turan Plates were measured and sampled. These deposits are mostly composed of submarine volcanic rocks, skeletal and non-skeletal limestone, shale and sandstone that were deposited in low to high energy conditions (from tidal flat to deep open marine). According to gradual deepening trend, wide lateral distribution of facies as well as absence of resedimentation deposits, a depositional model of a homoclinal ramp was proposed for these deposits. Field observations and facies distribution indicate that, two depositional sequences were recognized in both sections. These sections show similarities in facies and depositional sequence during the Early Silurian in the area. Although there are some opinions and evidences that demonstrated Paleo-Tethys rifting phase started at the Late Ordovician-Early Silurian, similarities suggest that the Turan and Iran Plates were not completely detached tectonic block during this time, and that their depositional conditions were affected by global sea level changes and tectonic events.     

Reduced transition probabilities for 4~He radiative capture reactions at astrophysical energies

The reduced transition probabilities from an electric quadrupole B(E2) and reduced transition probabilities from a magnetic dipole B(M1) between the ground state and the first excited state have been calculated for the3He(α,γ)7Be,8Be(α,γ)12C and12C(α,γ)16O radiative capture reactions with the M3Y potential.These reactions are important in stellar evolution.The calculated B(M1) and B(E2) for7Be nuclei are found to be 1.082×10-3e2fm2and 1.921 e2fm4from transitions 3/2-to 1/2-,respectively.The obtained values for reduced transition probabilities B(E2) for the12C and16O nuclei from transitions 0+to 2+are 12.54 e2fm4and 14.18 e2fm4,respectively.The results are in satisfactory agreement with available experimental data.     

A Unified Computational Method for Simulating Dynamic Behavior of Planing Vessels

High speed planing hulls have complex hydrodynamic behaviors. The trim angle and drafts are very sensitive to speed and location of the center of gravity. Therefore, motion simulation for such vessels needs a strong coupling between rigid body motions and hydrodynamic analysis. In addition, free surface should be predicted with good accuracy for each time step. In this paper, velocity and pressure fields are coupled by use of the fractional step method. On the basis of integration of the two-phase viscous f...     

Climate change impact on precipitation and cardinal temperatures in different climatic zones in Iran: analyzing the probable effects on cereal water-use efficiency

Global greenhouse gases increase could be a threat to sustainable agriculture since it might affect both green water and air temperature. Using the outputs of 15 general circulation models (GCMs) under three SRES scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1, the projected annual and seasonal precipitation (P) and cardinal temperatures (T) were analyzed for five climatic zones in Iran. In addition, the probable effects of climate change on cereal production were studied using AquaCrop model. Data obtained from the GCMs were downscaled using LARS-WG for 52 synoptic stations up to 2100. An uncertainty analysis was done for the projected P and T associated to GCMs and SRES scenarios. Based on station observations, LARS-WG was capable enough for simulating both P and T for all the climatic zones. The majority of GCMs as well as the median of the ensemble for each scenario project positive P and T changes. In all the climatic zones, wet seasons have a higher P increase than dry seasons, with the highest increase (27.9–83.3%) corresponding to hyper-arid and arid regions. A few GCMs project a P reduction mainly in Mediterranean and hyper-humid climatic regions. The highest increase (11.2–44.5%) in minimum T occurred in Mediterranean climatic regions followed by semi-arid regions in which a concurrent increase in maximum T (2.9–14.6%) occurred. The largest uncertainty in P and cardinal T projection occurred in rainy seasons as well as in hyper-humid regions. The AquaCrop simulation results revealed that the increased cardinal T under global warming will cause 0–28.5% increase in cereal water requirement as well as 0–15% reduction in crop yield leading to 0–30% reduction in water use efficiency in 95% of the country.