用1999年集集地震序列建立台湾地区地震形变的三维模型及其特殊意义

编纂了台湾地区包括震源位置和震源参数的地震目录。选择的数据库用于建立与菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块俯冲和碰撞等各种构造运动有关的台湾地区三维地震形变模型。我们将整个台湾地区划分为10km间隔的三维网格,计算每个网格的地震矩释放量,即该网格内所有地震释放的地震矩总和。当一次地震的物理尺度超过网格尺寸10km时,相应的地震矩就分布在多个网格上。这种定量方法较好地描述了该地区地震矩释放的一级特征。值得注意的是,集集地震的发生,填充了震源区附近地震矩释放量在震前存在的明显不足。本文推测某个区域内地震矩分布的不足—填充模式可以应用于预测未来大地震的发生地点。根据这一观点,我们认为,集集地震可能会引起另外2次地震(北部的苗栗—新竹区和南部的嘉义区),这2次地震的破坏性及震级与集集地震类似,且靠近集集地震震源区。     

Water storage loss in central and south Asia from GRACE satellite gravity: correlations with climate data

Recent decrease of water supply in central Asia and south Asia affects billions of people here. By filtering the errors at higher frequency components and correcting for the contaminated components, we enhance the monthly GRACE gravity fields to improve the determination of change in equivalent water height (EWH). The water storage changes from GRACE and the GLDAS hydrology model all show decreasing trends in this region. At the annual and inter-annual time scales, significant correlations between the variations in EWH and the variations in temperature, precipitation and snow equivalent height are found, especially at high altitude stations, suggesting that climate change is the driving factor for the water depletion in central Asia and south Asia.