Sources and behavior of arsenic and trace elements in groundwater and surface water in the Poopó Lake Basin,Bolivian Altiplano

Water management in semiarid and arid catchments such as the Poopó Lake Basin requires improved understanding of the complex behavior of the various contaminants, which affect the drinking water quality and considered as crucial for sustainable development of the region. Mechanisms of arsenic (As) release in the surface and groundwater were studied. Hydrochemical data for surface water (4 samples) and groundwater (28 samples) were collected in a small watershed in the Poopó catchment at the highland of the Bolivian Andes (Altiplano). All of them show high electrical conductivity values and moderately oxidizing conditions. The surface water contains high concentration of sulfate and the trace elements As, Zn and Pb in the zone affected by acid mine drainage. There is a large variability of the concentration of As and of the trace elements in the groundwater in the five different regions within the Poopó catchment. The metal concentrations sensitive to changes of redox state and results of speciation modeling suggest that As (V) is a predominant aqueous species, which conforms to the prevailing oxidizing conditions in the shallow groundwater environment. Two generalized trends for As distribution were identified in groundwater: (a) high concentrations are found in the arid zone (100–250 μg/L) in the southern (region III) and in the northwestern (region V) regions, and (b) low concentrations (<50 μg/L) are found in the remaining part of the basin (region I, II and IV). However, the spatial distribution within these regions needs to be investigated further. A conclusion from the present study is that there are multiple sources of As as well as other trace elements (such as Cd, Mn and Zn) in the Poopó Lake Basin. Among the sources and the processes which led to the mobility of As and other trace metals in the region are: (a) weathering of sulfide minerals, (b) oxidation of pyrite and/or arsenopyrite in mineralized areas and (c) desorption from hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) surfaces. In non-mining areas, volcanic ash is suggested to be a significant source of As.     

重庆强对流短临业务评分方法

结合重庆本地实际情况,以区/县为单位对强对流中出现的短历时强降水、阵性大风及雷电进行业务质量定量评估.短历时强降水、阵性大风基于加密站观测资料采用分级的方式来评定,对雷电的评定基于ADTD系统观测到地闪资料并判断所在区/县是否有地闪出现.介绍了重庆本地强对流短临业务评分方法及开发的评分软件.从2011年的评分结果看,该评分方法在重庆本地是比较合理的,在业务应用上是可行的.     

XX核电厂附近海域生态环境及潜在致灾生物研究

为了了解XX核电厂周边海域的生态环境状况,筛选潜在威胁核电厂冷源安全的致灾生物,分析影响致灾生物时空分布的主要环境因素,本研究于2018年进行了四个季节的生态调查。结果表明,研究海域浮游植物密度秋季最高,春季优势种为东海原甲藻,其他季节优势种为中肋骨条藻等硅藻。浮游动物密度夏季最高,以桡足类为主,春、夏季优势种还包括球型侧腕水母和薮枝螅水母。底栖动物的密度和生物量在秋季最高,优势种主要为豆形短眼蟹、长吻沙蚕和丝异须虫。浮游植物、浮游动物和底栖动物群落均在夏季最为稳定,群落多样性水平和物种丰度较高,且分布较为均匀。浮游植物群落的细胞丰度与悬浮物和磷酸盐的浓度正相关性最高。浮游动物的密度受温度和盐度的影响较大。底栖动物的群落分布主要受悬浮物和无机营养盐的浓度影响。本研究共筛选出17种威胁XX核电厂冷源安全的潜在致灾生物。海地瓜、棘刺锚参、海葵和球型侧腕水母的风险等级较高,其分布主要受温度和盐度的影响。后续工作中,XX核电厂应根据潜在致灾生物与环境因子的关系加强暴发机制研究、提升监测预警能力,并优化驱赶消杀技术和干扰体系,为核电厂冷源安全提供理论和技术保障。     

Multifractal analysis as a tool for validating a rainfall model

A multifractal analysis was carried out in order to validate the simulation of hourly rainfall records of a local climate model for the Iberian Peninsula. Observed and simulated hourly rainfall data from four locations in Andalusia (southern Spain) were used to carry out the study. In order to detect the influence of the length of the data series on the results, two different sizes were used for the real data: 4 years, and 20 years. The results show that algebraic tails are required to fit the probability distribution of extreme rain event sizes, and rain and dry event durations for both kinds of rainfall data. Similar results are found for the extreme rain event sizes and dry event durations fits when the real and synthetic data are considered. Nevertheless, some differences appear in the cases of rain event durations. The detection of the presence of a first‐order multifractal phase transition associated with a critical moment in the empirical moment scaling exponent function and the results of the extreme rain event sizes fits, reveal that real rainfall is a self‐organized criticality (SOC) process. That behaviour is less evident in the simulated rainfall series. The same ‘synoptic maximum’ value was found for each place with both types of rainfall data. A time clustering analysis was carried out applying the count‐based periodogram and the Fano factor methods. Some periodicities have been detected in the periodograms, especially for the longest real rainfall data series. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

条件非线性最优扰动在可预报性问题研究中的应用

本文总结了近年来条件非线性最优扰动方法的应用研究的主要进展.主要包括四个方面:(1)将条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法拓展到既考虑初始扰动又考虑模式参数扰动,形成了拓展的CNOP方法.拓展的CNOP方法不仅能够应用于研究分别由初始误差和模式参数误差导致的可预报性问题,而且能够用于探讨初始误差和模式参数误差同时存在的情形;(2)将拓展的CNOP方法分别应用于ENSO和黑潮可预报性研究,考察了初始误差和模式参数误差对其可预报性的影响,揭示了初始误差在导致ENSO和黑潮大弯曲路径预报不确定性中的重要作用;(3)考察了阻塞事件发生的最优前期征兆(OPR)以及导致其预报不确定性的最优增长初始误差(OGR),揭示了OPR和OGR空间模态及其演变机制的相似性及其局地性特征;(4)研究了台风预报的目标观测问题,用CNOP方法确定了台风预报的目标观测敏感区,通过观测系统模拟试验(OSSEs)和/或观测系统试验(OSEs),表明了CNOP敏感区在改进台风预报中的有效性.具体地,台风OGR的主要误差分布在某一特定区域,空间分布具有明显的局地性特征,在台风OGR的局地性区域增加观测,有效改进了台风的预报技巧,该区域代表了台风预报的初值敏感区.事实上,上述El Ni(n)o事件、黑潮路径变异以及阻塞事件的OGR的空间分布也具有明显的局地性特征,这些事件的OGR刻画的局地性区域可能也代表了初值敏感区.     

The response of vegetation at the end of the last glacial period (MIS 3 and MIS 2) in littoral areas of NW Iberia

This paper describes and discusses the palaeobotanical data obtained from organic levels of two exposed deposits on the Atlantic shore of the northwestern Iberian Peninsula. Radiocarbon dating assigns these levels to a period of marine regression at the end of MIS 3 and the beginning of the Last Glacial Maximum. The pollen record shows an initial predominance of tree taxa (mainly deciduous, including the presence of Fagus far from its current limit), followed by an episode of partial forest retraction related to the end of MIS 3 and the beginning of the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the presence of numerous tree taxa in the record, even during the cold intervals associated with Heinrich events, points to the existence of sheltered refugia for these species during this period, in keeping with the conclusions of recent reviews of the vegetation dynamics of this region for the Lateglacial and the Holocene.     

南堡1号构造馆三段断盖配置油气渗漏部位及其控藏作用

为了研究南堡凹陷南堡1号馆三段火山岩盖层上下油气分布规律,在馆三段火山岩盖层及其内油气渗漏断裂发育及分布特征研究的基础上,通过对馆三段火山岩盖层断接厚度与其封油气所需最小断接厚度相对大小的比较和对油气渗漏断裂凸面脊的确定,预测了南堡1号构造馆三段断盖配置油气渗漏部位;并结合油气分布,对断盖配置油气渗漏部位对油气成藏与分布的控制作用进行了研究。结果表明,南堡1号构造馆三段断盖配置发育10处油气渗漏部位,其中：F₂及分支断裂油气渗漏部位最发育,有3处油气渗漏部位;其次是F₁、F₆断裂,有2处油气渗漏部位;F₃、F₄、F₅和F₇断裂仅各发育1处油气渗漏部位。这些油气渗漏部位及附近有利于下伏东一段油气在上覆馆三段之上聚集成藏,应是造成南堡1-1断鼻、南堡1-3断块和南堡1-5断鼻北部油区油气既可以分布在下伏东一段又可分布在馆三段之上,而南堡1-5断鼻南部油气仅分布在下伏东一段的根本原因。     

干旱区典型流域近30年土地利用/土地覆被变化的分形特征分析——以玛纳斯河流域为例

利用1976、1989、2005年三期遥感影像,运用GIS和分形理论研究干旱区典型流域——玛纳斯河流域近30年的土地利用/土地覆被变化的复杂性和稳定性。结果表明:玛纳斯河流域各时段的土地利用/土地覆被类型分布具有分形结构,土地利用/土地覆被类型形状复杂性和斑块的稳定性波动变化,1976、1989、2005年三时期的各种土地利用/土地覆被类型总平均分维值分别为1.394 0、1.363 4和1.389 9。总平均稳定性指数分别为0.606 0、0.636 6、0.610 1。三期土地利用/覆被类型平均稳定性排序为:沙地>未利用土地>居民点工矿用地>水域>林地>草地>耕地>盐碱地。耕地、林地、草地、盐碱地稳定性相对较差。通过对流域土地利用/土地覆被类型变化复杂性和稳定性的研究,可以为政府协调水土开发和调整土地利用结构提供支持。     

草原生态系统模式中参数不确定性导致的模拟结果不确定性研究

基于五变量草原生态系统理论模式,应用与参数有关的条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP-P)方法,探讨了由参数不确定性导致的草原生态系统模式模拟结果的不确定性问题。参数的不确定性可能来源于观测和（或）对物理过程描述等的不确定性。选取了五变量草原生态系统模式中具有物理意义的32个模式参数进行数值试验。试验结果表明,对所考察的32个模式参数,在一定的不确定性和给定的优化时刻范围内,单独优化每个参数所得CNOP-Ps的联合模态与同时优化32个参数所得CNOP-P的模态并不相同。比较了上述两类参数误差以及随机参数误差对草原生态系统模拟的差异。随机参数误差与上述优化方法所得参数误差的不确定性范围大小相同。数值结果表明,同时优化32个参数所得 CNOP-P 类型参数误差使得草原生态系统模拟的不确定性程度最大。这种影响表现在使得草原生态系统转变为沙漠生态系统,或者使得草原生态系统转变为具有更多生草量的草原生态系统。上述数值结果不依赖于优化时间和参数不确定性程度的大小。这些数值结果建议我们应当考虑多参数的非线性相互作用来研究草原生态系统模式模拟的不确定性问题,并且揭示出CNOP-P方法是讨论上述问题的一个有用的工具。     

Input of atmospheric lead to marine sediments in a south-east Pacific coastal area (approximately 36 degrees S)

Atmospheric input of Pb to coastal sediments in the south-east Pacific (approximately 36 degrees S) was estimated using: (1) a salt marsh (non-local emission sources) as a natural collector of atmospheric fluxes and (2) Pb concentrations in rain and air samples, both considered to be representative of the atmospheric input in the study area. A radioisotopic geochronology technique ((210)Pb) was used to estimate the total Pb atmospheric supply to the sediments. The results show that atmospheric input to Concepción Bay accounts for 13-68% of Pb in near shore sediments, evaluated through salt marsh and rain, both showing comparable results. Consequently, there are other relevant Pb sources to explain the higher concentrations in this area. Sediments in the shelf are subject to important influence of upwelling waters, estimated by Salamanca [Sources and sinks of (210)Pb in Concepción Bay, Chile (1993) PhD thesis, Marine Science Research Center, State University of New York at Stony Brook, USA] using (210)Pb. The atmospheric input, however, is mainly responsible for the total Pb input, since the salt marsh (natural atmospheric collector) shows similar Pb(xs) inventories than the shelf, corresponding to a regional-scale Pb emissions.