城郊观光农业发展研究—以昆明市呈贡县为例

城郊观光农业是在大中城市郊区这一特定地域上，以城郊农业为基础发展形成的一种新型的乡村旅游形式。它的产生和发展与城市化和城郊农业的迅速发展以及城市居民休闲旅游需求的高涨密切相关。城郊观光农业已出现多种类型，其发展必须因地制宜，在宏观和微观层次上进行合理布局。以昆明市呈贡县为例，对城郊观光农业的类型、布局等进行了初步研究。     

Uncertainty assessment for watershed water quality modeling: A Probabilistic Collocation Method based approach

Watershed water quality models are increasingly used in management. However, simulations by such complex models often involve significant uncertainty, especially those for non-conventional pollutants which are often poorly monitored. This study first proposed an integrated framework for watershed water quality modeling. Within this framework, Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) was then applied to a WARMF model of diazinon pollution to assess the modeling uncertainty. Based on PCM, a global sensitivity analysis method named PCM-VD (VD stands for variance decomposition) was also developed, which quantifies variance contribution of all uncertain parameters. The study results validated the applicability of PCM and PCM-VD to the WARMF model. The PCM-based approach is much more efficient, regarding computational time, than conventional Monte Carlo methods. It has also been demonstrated that analysis using the PCM-based approach could provide insights into data collection, model structure improvement and management practices. It was concluded that the PCM-based approach could play an important role in watershed water quality modeling, as an alternative to conventional Monte Carlo methods to account for parametric uncertainty and uncertainty propagation.     

基于新浪微博的省域出游驱动力空间分布特征

信息化社会下的旅游流空间分布特征是一个全新的研究视角。从中国大陆31个省份中选取69个A级景区,利用新浪微博,获取省域范围内的粉丝分布情况。从总体、区域和主要出游地区3个方面,提取省域出游驱动力的空间分布特征。在微博用户的关系视角下,全国出游驱动力分布呈现明显差异,广东、北京两地在出游驱动力方面遥遥领先;通过省份-景点微博关系矩阵构成的出游驱动有向流发现,和东部地区的联系几乎占了全国出游驱动流的全部,而全国旅游接待的分布却相对均衡;最后,还发现了5个主要的聚类出游地区,并分析其特征。     

渤海湾盆地垦东凸起北坡馆上段沉积相模式探讨

主要通过岩心观察、粒度分析、参数计算、录测井分析等手段,充分吸收国内外河流研究成果,结合研究区区域地质背景,揭示垦东凸起北坡馆上段沉积相模式。得到以下认识：研究区馆上段地层为河流相沉积,从沉积物特征和平面形态角度可以将研究区馆上段河流沉积理解为介于辫状河及曲流河之间的过渡河型。其平均河道弯曲度大于1.7,垂向层序表现为泥多砂少,具有曲流河的特征;但沉积层序顶部常直接覆盖河漫/洪泛平原沉积,特别是河道内砂坝发育造成河道分汊河,砂坝沉积物粒度特征反映受洪水控制的震荡性特点而与曲流河有重要差别。本文借用在水利学界和地貌学界广为使用的分汊河概念建立了研究区馆上段沉积相模式,包括河床、堤岸、河漫/洪泛平原、废弃河道等4个亚相,组成下粗上细的正旋回。其中,河道砂坝是其主要砂体,顶部常被洪泛平原直接覆盖;决口扇是仅次于河道砂坝的第二大砂体。     

海洋灾害地质风险评价在辽东湾浅海油气开发区的应用

基于在辽东湾浅海油田多年调查获取的地质地球物理资料,构建以油气开发区潜在灾害地质类型为基础的灾害地质风险评价指标体系,确定潮流冲刷槽、浅滩、埋藏古河道、易液化砂层、软弱地层和浅层气等6个评价指标,利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标的权重值,采用模糊数学评判法对海区灾害地质风险性作定量评价。评价结果划为5级风险区(风险高、较高、中等、较低和低),其中,潮流冲刷槽为本区的高风险区,地势平缓的潮滩为低风险区。评价结果与区内已建海洋工程的评价分析相互印证,对海上工程建设具有实际应用价值。     

Normalized algorithm for mapping and dating forest disturbances and regrowth for the United States

Forest disturbances such as harvesting, wildfire and insect infestation are critical ecosystem processes affecting the carbon cycle. Because carbon dynamics are related to time since disturbance, forest stand age that can be used as a surrogate for major clear-cut/fire disturbance information has recently been recognized as an important input to forest carbon cycle models for improving prediction accuracy. In this study, forest disturbances in the USA for the period of ∼1990–2000 were mapped using 400+ pairs of re-sampled Landsat TM/ETM scenes in 500m resolution, which were provided by the Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System project. The detected disturbances were then separated into two five-year age groups, facilitated by Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, which was used to calculate the area of forest regeneration for each county in the USA.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in urban soils representing different land use categories in Shanghai

An extensive soil survey was carried out in Shanghai to investigate the spatial distribution and possible sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban soils. Soil samples were collected from highways, iron-smelting plants, steel-smelting plants, shipbuilding yards, coking plants, power plants, chemical plants, urban parks, university campuses and residential areas and were analyzed for 16 PAHs by gas chromatography with mass detection. High PAH concentrations were found in all locations investigated, with mean values of soil total PAH concentrations in the range 3,279–38,868 μg/kg DM, and the PAH concentrations were significantly influenced by soil organic matter content. Soil PAH profiles in all districts were dominated by PAHs with 4–6 rings. Principal components analysis and diagnostic ratios of PAHs indicate that they were mainly derived from coal combustion and petroleum but in soils from highways the PAHs were derived largely from vehicle exhaust emissions. The high concentrations of PAHs found indicate that many urban soils in Shanghai represent a potential hazard to public health.     

模糊可变集合方法在降雨相似性分析中的应用

基于特定流域场次降雨具有的相似性,应用考虑区间值模糊可变的模糊可变集合方法进行场次降雨相似性分析。通过计算各场次降雨隶属于各降雨级别的特征值及与目标场次降雨之间的相似距离,从而获得流域场次降雨相似性排序,有效解决了场次降雨相似分析中的模糊性和不确定性问题。找出与实时阶段场次降雨相似的历史场次降雨,预估水库实时阶段面临的洪水过程及量级,可为水库防洪调度提供信息参考。     

震群精定位问题讨论

本文利用一组高精度数字记录台站在新西兰北岛附近观测得到的一个地震群资料,选用合适的地壳结构,合理控制造成误差的因素,应用偏振技术提高地震波震相判定的分辨率,最后反演计算获得震源的定位解.虽然这个震群仅发生在15 km长的小条形区域内,由于较高的定位精度,能较清晰地反映出火山地区地震活动的特点,尤其是深度分布图像表现了一种非任意性.     

从贝丘遗址看绳纹人与环境的相互关系

介绍了自本世纪７０年代末以来，日本学者在绳纹时代的考古研究中开辟的一个新领域，即通过分析贝丘遗址和周围的自然环境去认识绳纹的环境变化及绳纹人与环境的关系。同时提出了笔者关于绳纹时代人与环境关系的一个模式。