Response to climate change of different tree species and NDVI variation since 1923 in the middle arid region of Ningxia, China

The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used extensively to describe vegetation cover and ecological environment change. The purpose of this study was to contrast the response of different tree species growing in the same habitat to climate change and retrieve past NDVI using tree-ring width data from tree cores collected from the transitional zone of Pinus tabulaeformis and Picea crassifolia in the Luoshan Mountains in the middle arid region of Ningxia. Correlation analysis indicated that radial growth of P. tabulaeformis is more sensitive to precipitation and temperature change than that of P. crassifolia. Natural factors such as water availability and heat at this elevation are more suited to the growth of P. crassifolia, and are more advantageous to its renewal and succession. P. crassifolia is probably the better of the two species for protecting the forest ecosystem and conserving water in the Luoshan desertification area. Ring width of P. crassifolia correlates significantly with average NDVI for April–May (r =0.641, p <0.01), and both of them are influenced positively by precipitation in April–May. The reconstructed NDVI for 1923–2007 shows the relatively low vegetation cover occurred in the 1920s–1930s, the 1960s–1970s, and the early 21st century. The reconstructed NDVI better reflected the drought climate in the study area.     

On possible influence of space weather on agricultural markets: Necessary conditions and probable scenarios

We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area-specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysismethods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650–1715). We demonstrate a reliable manifestation of the influence of space weather on prices, discovered in the statistics of intervals between the price hikes and phase price asymmetry. We show that the effects of phase price asymmetry persist even during the early modern period in the U.S. in the production of the durum wheat. Within the proposed approach, we analyze the statistics of depopulation in the eighteenth and nineteenth century Iceland, induced by the famine due to a sharp livestock reduction owing to, in its turn, the lack of foodstuff due to the local weather anomalies. A high statistical significance of temporal matching of these events with the periods of extreme solar activity is demonstrated. We discuss the possible consequences of the observed global climate change in the formation of new areas of risk farming, sensitive to space weather.     

Thrust controlled lineaments of the Aravalli-Delhi fold Belt, Rajasthan, India mapped from landsat TM image

The litho-units of the area between Chawand to Kotra across the Aravalli-Delhi Fold Belt are referable to Bhilwara, Aravalli and and Delhi Supergroups. Earlier workers considered the sequence as progressively younger toward west across the Avavalli Orographic axis. Two-dimensional trend mapping of the planar tectonic anisotropy was carried out to map lineaments from landsat TM Image. Ground checks of the lineament along Chawand-Kotra section suggest that lineaments are tectonic dislocations, morphotectonically controlled by thrusts and ductile shears within the Aravalli-Delhi Fold Belt. The recognition of thrust bounded litho-tectonic units from interpretation of satellite remotely sensed data may necessitate reassessment of the Precambrian lithostraligraphy of the Aravalli and Delhi supergroups in the study area. The paper reports thrust tectonics from Aravalli-Delhi Fold Bell. The Antalia Schuppean Belt is possible duplex; imbricate thrusts are connected with base thrust and continuity with roof thrust has been punctuated by transverse faulting and erosion.     

基于数据分布域变换与贝叶斯神经网络的渗透率预测及不确定性估计

渗透率是储层评价和油气藏开发的关键参数.传统测井方法与常规机器学习方法估算的渗透率都是固定值.但由于测井数据本身存在噪声, 渗透率的预测结果可能受到噪声的影响出现测量性的随机误差(即任意不确定性); 同时, 当测试数据与训练数据存在差异时, 机器学习模型在预测渗透率时可能出现模型参数的不确定性(即认知不确定性).为实现渗透率的准确预测并量化两种不确定性对结果的影响, 本文提出基于数据分布域变换和贝叶斯神经网络同时实现渗透率预测及其不确定性的估计.提出方法主要包括两个部分: 一部分是不同域数据分布的相互转换, 另一部分是基于贝叶斯理论的神经网络渗透率建模预测和不确定性估计.由于贝叶斯神经网络存在数据分布的假设, 当标签的概率分布与网络的分布保持一致时, 贝叶斯神经网络可以更好的学习到数据之间的关系.因此通过寻找一个函数将一个原始域的渗透率标签转换为目标域的与渗透率有关的变量(我们称为目标域渗透率), 使得该变量符合贝叶斯神经网络的分布假设.我们使用贝叶斯神经网络预测目标域渗透率以及任意不确定性和认知不确定性.随后, 通过分布域的逆变换, 我们将目标域渗透率还原回原始域渗透率.应用本文方法到某油田的18口井的测井数据中, 使用16口井的数据进行训练, 2口井进行测试.测试井的预测渗透率与真实渗透率基本一致.同时, 任意不确定性的预测结果提供了渗透率预测值受到的测井数据噪声影响的位置.认知不确定的预测结果说明数据量少的位置具有更高的认知不确定性.我们提出的这一流程不仅显示了在储层表征方面的巨大潜力, 同时可以降低测井解释时的风险.

     

基于半监督学习的井震联合储层横向孔隙度预测方法

传统地震储层预测技术一般基于弹性参数反演和岩石物理建模的级联流程实现储层孔隙度预测, 其预测精度受到波动理论和岩石物理理论的近似假设、初始模型和二次反演累积误差等因素的影响.为缓解这些问题, 本文提出了一种基于双向门控递归单元神经网络的半监督学习井震联合孔隙度预测方法, 实现从地震数据直接预测储层横向孔隙度.通过少量的地震测井样本标签对和多目标函数约束建立智能化多尺度多信息融合孔隙度预测模型, 实现地震数据到孔隙度, 孔隙度再到生成地震数据的闭环映射.此外, 在网络模型每次迭代更新的过程中随机引入非井旁地震道参与网络训练, 非井旁地震道的波形匹配能在一定程度上保证井间孔隙度的预测精度.模型数据和实际数据测试结果表明, 本文提出的方法相比于有监督学习孔隙度预测方法能进一步提高储层孔隙度的预测准确性和横向连续性, 获得较为可靠的储层物性参数的空间分布.

     

基于计算岩石物理方法的页岩储层弹性参数提取

发展了应用数值计算方法获取页岩储层的速度、各向异性参数的计算岩石物理系列方法.该系列方法包括了大尺度精细地质模型数值建模、计算网格尺度的地球物理建模和地震波数值模拟提取岩石物理弹性参数.本文方法利用储层的统计数据而不是具体岩心的测量数据,可获得储层岩石物理弹性参数的变化规律.相比于基于岩心测试的岩石物理方法,本文方法可精细考虑实际储层的非均匀特征,可得到岩心测试难以求取的与尺寸效应高度相关的弹性参数,也避免了求取弹性参数变化规律时获取不同地质特征岩心的困难.本文发展了计算岩石物理方法,为计算岩石物理面临的大尺度地质建模和计算能力限制问题提供了有效的解决方案.文中以胜利罗家的页岩储层为例,求得了储层TOC含量从3%到21%变化情况下储层的P波、S波速度以及各向异性参数变化规律.

     

羌塘盆地中央隆起带的重磁场证据及其构造意义

对于羌塘盆地是否存在横贯东西的中央隆起带,目前学术界仍有分歧.本文提供的最新高精度航空重、磁资料证实存在呈东西向贯通羌塘盆地的中央隆起带,并对该带的构造特征进行了精细刻画.隆起带受南北两侧深大断裂控制,其空间跨度（宽度）由西向东逐渐收敛,并被一组近南北向的隐伏断裂系切割、左滑错动.重、磁场资料还显示中央隆起带在双湖东、西两侧存在明显差异：西段基底大规模隆起,基岩深度一般在3~5 km以内,明显浅于南北羌塘坳陷7~15 km的基底埋深;东段基底隆起幅度明显降低,主要表现为潜伏的低隆起,其中双湖—雅曲段基底埋深5~7 km,雅曲—岗尼段基底埋深7~9 km;即中央隆起带基底自西向东"台阶状"降低,隆起的幅度和分布范围受到近南北向断裂控制.构造分层表明,与南羌塘地块相比,北羌塘地块的基底隆起幅度小、稳定性更好.南北羌塘基底地球物理属性的显著差异说明羌塘盆地并不存在统一的前寒武系变质基底,中央隆起带的形成应该与古特提斯洋关闭时形成的混杂岩带有关.     

江西大湖塘矿田两期岩浆作用与钨成矿的关系: 来自锆石矿物地球化学的证据

大湖塘矿田是我国新发现的世界级钨多金属矿产资源基地,位于江南造山带中段,地处九岭山脉北部的武宁、修水、靖安三县交界区域,面积约500km²,储藏着近二百万吨WO₃资源（伴生Cu和Mo）。该区以晋宁期花岗岩类的大面积出露为特色,而燕山期花岗岩为全隐伏,前者作为矿田最主要的细脉-浸染型白钨矿的赋存载体,后者则在成岩时代上与钨成矿时间基本一致。两期岩浆岩对区内大规模钨成矿作用的贡献问题,及其内在成因联系问题具有重要的研究意义。本文在矿田地质和岩石地球化学研究基础上,以锆石的矿物地球化学研究为切入点,对晋宁期和燕山期花岗岩类的年代学、Hf同位素、微量元素特征进行系统的对比研究。结果显示,大湖塘矿田石门寺花岗岩成岩时代为147.7Ma、靖安钨矿成矿时代为134.9Ma、赋矿花岗岩成岩时代为815.8Ma,两个时代的岩浆岩均为过铝质S型花岗岩系列;更有意义的是,燕山期花岗岩（石门寺）中发现多颗继承锆石,且继承锆石与晋宁期岩浆锆石具有相近的Hf同位素和微量元素组成,这指示燕山期花岗岩与晋宁期花岗岩具有亲缘关系,包括晋宁期花岗岩在内的中新元古代基底岩石可能参与了该区中生代花岗岩的源区重熔。锆石微量元素特征表明,这两期重熔的岩浆结晶温度都在700℃左右,经历了低氧逸度、水近饱和条件下的熔融。晋宁期花岗岩富含W、Ca等成矿所需元素,在中生代华南岩石圈地幔上涌导致的中上地壳大规模熔融的背景下,燕山期岩浆期后含矿热液与晋宁期花岗岩围岩发生交代,成为本区大型白钨矿为主的钨多金属矿床形成的必要条件。

     

广西丹池成矿带芒场矿田岩浆岩源区特征及锆石U-Pb年龄分析

丹池成矿带是我国重要锡多金属成矿带,过去对丹池成矿带成岩成矿研究主要集中在大厂矿田及五圩矿田,而对丹池成矿带北部的芒场矿田岩浆作用时代、源区特征及其成矿性缺少分析。芒场矿田岩浆活动强烈,发育隐伏斑状花岗岩及有关的花岗斑岩脉和隐伏细粒花岗斑岩及有关的白云母花岗斑岩脉。本文分析花岗斑岩脉U-Pb年龄及花岗斑岩脉和白云母花岗斑岩脉主、微量元素组成,以探讨岩浆活动时代、岩浆源区特征及其成矿潜力。芒场矿田花岗斑岩脉锆石U-Pb年龄为89.1±0.9Ma（MSWD=0.9）,和丹池成矿带内大厂矿田岩浆活动时代相近,表明丹池成矿带岩浆活动时代都发生于90Ma左右。白云母花岗斑岩脉具高A/CNK比值（2.69~2.88）,含高铝硅酸盐矿物白云母及在Th-Rb图上沿S型花岗岩趋势线分布,和大厂矿田S型黑云母花岗岩的特征基本一致,表明其主要为S型花岗岩。花岗斑岩脉形成时代晚于白云母花岗斑岩脉,但其具有更低的SiO₂含量和更高的MgO、Fe₂O₃^T、CaO和TiO₂含量,且在SiO₂与TiO₂、Fe₂O₃^T、Al₂O₃和P₂O₅关系图中分布于不同区域,没有线性变化关系,显示两者不是同一岩浆结晶分异演化形成的,而为不同沉积变质岩部分熔融形成的。白云母花岗斑岩脉富Al₂O₃、K₂O、Rb、Cs、Sn、W、Nb和Ta,在Rb/Ba-Rb/Sr图上位于富粘土源区,为强风化作用形成的富粘土质富稀有金属源区部分熔融形成的产物。华南西部基底发育经强风化作用形成的富粘土质富稀有金属元素沉积变质源区,为华南西南缘大规模锡矿床的形成提供了物质基础。

     

陕西大旱与太阳活动的关系

本文分析了公元５８０～１９７９年的陕西大早与大阳活动的关系，得到大旱主要发生在太阳黑子的高值段和下降段以及低值段。第２２大阳周峰年已经过去，粗略估计１９９６年是第２３太阳周的谷年。我们预测１９９５Ａｓｌ９９７年大旱１次，１９９７～２０００年基本上无大旱，２０００～２００５年大旱２～３次。