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151.
D. Codron J. Codron J.A. Lee-Thorp M. Sponheimer C.C. Grant J.S. Brink 《Journal of Arid Environments》2009,73(4-5):449-457
A major focus in population ecology is understanding factors that limit rare species. We used stable isotope approaches to diet to determine whether remaining rare antelope populations in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa experience i) nutritional stress; ii) competition with sympatric bulk grazers; iii) reduced habitat heterogeneity. Rare species consumed near-pure C4 grass-based diets throughout the seasonal cycle, in contrast to field observations that reported significant levels of C3 consumption (browse) by these taxa. This finding, coupled with low faecal %N at the height of the dry season, may indicate nutritional stress, but recent isotopic studies of the same species elsewhere in Africa suggest that field observations overestimated levels of browse consumption. We find little evidence for diet niche overlap between rare antelope with bulk grazing species. This partitioning of resources (interpreted mainly as tall- versus short-grass grazing, respectively), is consistent with reported differences in observed diet, and comparative oral morphology. Last, we find less seasonal diet variations amongst bulk grazers feeding in rare antelope habitats compared with other landscapes. We propose that loss of functional heterogeneity, apparently brought about by high densities of artificial waterholes, limits recovery of diet- and habitat-selective rare antelope populations in KNP. 相似文献
152.
This paper presents the verification results of nowcasts of four continuous variables generated from an integrated weighted model and underlying Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Real-time monitoring of fast changing weather conditions and the provision of short term forecasts, or nowcasts, in complex terrain within coastal regions is challenging to do with sufficient accuracy. A recently developed weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system was used in the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 project to generate integrated weighted forecasts (INTW) out to 6 h. INTW forecasts were generated with in situ observation data and background gridded forecasting data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing configurations. In this paper, the four variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind gust are treated as continuous variables for verifying the INTW forecasts. Fifteen sites were selected for the comparison of the model performances. The results of the study show that integrating surface observation data with the NWP forecasts produce better statistical scores than using either the NWP forecasts or an objective analysis of observed data alone. Overall, integrated observation and NWP forecasts improved forecast accuracy for the four continuous variables. The mean absolute errors from the INTW forecasts for the entire test period (12 February to 21 March 2010) are smaller than those from NWP forecasts with three configurations. The INTW is the best and most consistent performer among all models regardless of location and variable analyzed. 相似文献
153.
Evapotranspiration and canopy characteristics of two lodgepole pine stands following mountain pine beetle attack 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
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Mathew G. Brown T. Andrew Black Zoran Nesic Vanessa N. Foord David L. Spittlehouse Arthur L. Fredeen Rebecca Bowler Nicholas J. Grant Philip J. Burton J. A. Trofymow Dominic Lessard Gesa Meyer 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3326-3340
Over the past decade, British Columbia (BC), has experienced the largest mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak on record. This study used the eddy‐covariance (EC) technique to examine the impact of the MPB attack on evapotranspiration (E) and associated canopy characteristics of two lodgepole pine stands with secondary structure (trees, saplings and seedlings surviving the attack) located in central BC. MPB‐06, an 85‐year‐old almost pure stand of pine trees, was first attacked in 2006, and by 2010, ~80% of the trees had been killed. MPB‐03, a 110‐year‐old stand with an overstory consisting of over 90% pine and a developed sub‐canopy, was first attacked in 2003 and by 2007 had > 95% pine canopy mortality. EC measurements began in August 2006 at MPB‐06 and in March 2007 at MPB‐03, and continued for four years. Annual total E ranged from 226 mm to 237 mm at MPB‐06, and from 280 to 297 mm at MPB‐03, showing relatively little year‐to‐year change at both sites over the four years. Increased E from the accelerated growth of the surviving vegetation (secondary structure, shrubs and herbs) compensated for reduction in E due to the death of the overstory. Monthly average daytime canopy conductance, the Priestley–Taylor (α), and the canopy–atmosphere decoupling coefficient (Ω) steadily increased during the growing season reaching approximate maximum values of 5 mm s?1, 0.75 and 0.12, respectively. Potential evapotranspiration was approximated using a vapour pressure deficit‐dependent α obtained at high soil water content. Calculated water deficits indicated some water‐supply limitation to the surviving trees and understory at both sites. Rates of root zone drainage during the growing season were low relative to precipitation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
154.
Nicholas A. Azzolina Mitchell J. Small David V. Nakles Grant S. Bromhal 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(4):895-909
This work evaluates the detection sensitivity of deep subsurface pressure monitoring within an uncertain carbon dioxide sequestration system by linking the output of an analytical reduced-order model and first-order uncertainty analysis. A baseline (non-leaky) modeling run was compared against 10 different leakage scenarios, where the cap rock permeability was increased by factors of 2–100 (cap rock permeability from 10?3 to 10?1 millidarcy). The uncertainty variance outputs were used to develop percentile estimates and detection sensitivity for pressure throughout the deep subsurface as a function of space (lateral distance from the injection wells and vertical orientation within the reservoir) and time (years since injection), or P(x, z, t). Conditional probabilities were computed for combinations of x, z, and t, which were then used to generate power curves for detecting leakage scenarios. The results suggest that measurements of the absolute change in pressure within the target injection aquifer would not be able to distinguish small leakage rates (i.e., less than 50 × baseline) from baseline conditions, and that only large leakage rates (i.e., >100 × baseline) would be discriminated with sufficient statistical power (>99 %). Combining measurements, for example by taking the ratio of formation pressure in Aquifer 2/Aquifer 1, provides better statistical power for distinguishing smaller leakage rates at earlier times in the injection program. Detection sensitivity for pressure is a function of space and time. Therefore, design of an adequate monitoring network for subsurface pressure should account for this space–time variability to ensure that the monitoring system performs to the necessary design criteria, e.g., specific false-negative and false-positive rates. 相似文献
155.
Suzanne M. Prober Kevin R. Thiele Philip W. Rundel Colin J. Yates Sandra L. Berry Margaret Byrne Les Christidis Carl R. Gosper Pauline F. Grierson Kristina Lemson Tom Lyons Craig Macfarlane Michael H. O’Connor John K. Scott Rachel J. Standish William D. Stock Eddie J. B. van Etten Grant W. Wardell-Johnson Alexander Watson 《Climatic change》2012,110(1-2):227-248
The importance of ecological management for reducing the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change is increasingly recognized, yet frameworks to facilitate a structured approach to climate adaptation management are lacking. We developed a conceptual framework that can guide identification of climate change impacts and adaptive management options in a given region or biome. The framework focuses on potential points of early climate change impact, and organizes these along two main axes. First, it recognizes that climate change can act at a range of ecological scales. Secondly, it emphasizes that outcomes are dependent on two potentially interacting and countervailing forces: (1) changes to environmental parameters and ecological processes brought about by climate change, and (2) responses of component systems as determined by attributes of resistance and resilience. Through this structure, the framework draws together a broad range of ecological concepts, with a novel emphasis on attributes of resistance and resilience that can temper the response of species, ecosystems and landscapes to climate change. We applied the framework to the world’s largest remaining Mediterranean-climate woodland, the ‘Great Western Woodlands’ of south-western Australia. In this relatively intact region, maintaining inherent resistance and resilience by preventing anthropogenic degradation is of highest priority and lowest risk. Limited, higher risk options such as fire management, protection of refugia and translocation of adaptive genes may be justifiable under more extreme change, hence our capacity to predict the extent of change strongly impinges on such management decisions. These conclusions may contrast with similar analyses in degraded landscapes, where natural integrity is already compromised, and existing investment in restoration may facilitate experimentation with higher risk?options. 相似文献
156.
R.?Grant?CawthornEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Christian?Tegner 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(11-12):93
Incompatible trace-element abundances in minerals and whole rocks from layered intrusions have been used to model the fractionation processes and evolving liquid compositions. Many such models assume that the analyzed concentration in a mineral represents that of the mineral when it first crystallized. However, overgrowth from residual liquid and subsequent diffusive equilibration can result in significant changes to the bulk mineral compositions (the more incompatible the element the more dramatic the subsequent changes). The proportion of that residual liquid relative to the cumulus minerals is the most important parameter in determining the magnitude of this effect (trapped liquid shift effect). Calculations involving Ba and La contents in plagioclase quantitatively demonstrate this effect. For Ba and La (partition coefficients of 0.4 and 0.04), 50% trapped liquid in a sample can result in two and sevenfold increases, respectively, in concentration between original and final bulk mineral compositions. Different cumulus assemblages also have a major effect on final compositions. We use examples of the concentrations of Ba and La in plagioclase from the Skaergaard intrusion from previous publications to illustrate the importance of this effect. Specifically, the La content of bulk plagioclase steadily decreases upward from the Lower Zone to Upper Zone c, and Ba in plagioclase shows no increase from the Lower Zone to the top of the Middle Zone. Such results are not explicable by fractionation processes, but can be modeled by the trapped liquid shift effect, assuming the well-established evidence for upward decrease in trapped liquid proportion through these zones. 相似文献
157.
Jordan Van Aalsburg John B. Rundle Lisa B. Grant Paul B. Rundle Gleb Yakovlev Donald L. Turcotte Andrea Donnellan Kristy F. Tiampo Jose Fernandez 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(8-9):967-977
In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California. 相似文献
158.
Recently Frech and Mahrt proposed a closure scheme which includes alarge-scale stress term to represent the effects of non-local momentummixing in the convective boundary layer. Here large-eddy simulation (LES)datasets are used to evaluate the performance of this scheme across a rangeof stabilities between neutral and highly convective conditions, and as afunction of baroclinity. Generally the inclusion of the non-local term inthe closure model leads to results in better agreement with LES, althoughsome modifications to the model formulation are suggested. 相似文献
159.
Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is frequently promoted as a practical solution for slowing down the rate of increase
of CO2 in the atmosphere. Consequently, there is a need to improve our understanding of how land management practices may affect
the net removal of greenhouse gases (GHG) from the atmosphere. In this paper we examine the role of agriculture in influencing
the GHG budget and briefly discuss the potential for carbon mitigation by agriculture. We also examine the opportunities that
exist for increasing soil C sequestration using management practices such as reduced tillage, reduced frequency of summer
fallowing, introduction of forage crops into crop rotations, conversion of cropland to grassland and nutrient addition via
fertilization. In order to provide information on the impact of such management practices on the net GHG budget we ran simulations
using CENTURY (a C model) and DNDC (a N model) for five locations across Canada, for a 30-yr time period. These simulations
provide information on the potential trade-off between C sequestration and increased N2O emissions. Our model output suggests that conversion of cropland to grassland will result in the largest reduction in net
GHG emissions, while nutrient additions via fertilizers will result in a small increase in GHG emissions. Simulations with
the CENTURY model also indicated that favorable growing conditions during the last 15 yr could account for an increase of
6% in the soil C at a site in Lethbridge, Alberta.
Presented at the International Workshop on Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Climate
Change, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–9 October 2002. 相似文献
160.
D. Howell C. J. O’Neill K. J. Grant W. L. Griffin S. Y. O’Reilly N. J. Pearson R. A. Stern T. Stachel 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2012,164(6):1011-1025
Fourier transform infrared mapping of diamonds can reveal detailed information on impurities, with a spatial context. We apply this technique, combined with in situ isotopic analysis of carbon, to the study of cuboid diamond growth in a sample that exhibits some mixed-habit growth. While there has been some uncertainty in the literature regarding sectoral differences in nitrogen aggregation and subsequent platelet development, the data from this study appear far more conclusive. We show that despite nitrogen being concentrated in octahedral sectors, there is no detectable difference in the concentration-adjusted rate of nitrogen aggregation within octahedral and cuboid sectors. However, the resultant platelet development is significantly reduced in cuboid sectors compared to contemporaneously formed octahedral sectors. This finding has significant implications for the classification of diamonds using the relationship between their platelet intensity and the absorption caused by B centres. It means that cuboid diamonds naturally fall below the linear relationship that has been termed regular, which would lead to them being incorrectly interpreted as having experienced heating or deformation. The data also support earlier suggestions that large hydrogen concentrations in the diamond-forming fluid may be required for cuboid growth. We further suggest that high nitrogen and hydrogen concentrations are required for mixed-habit diamond growth, which might be the product of specific fluid chemistries that occur in reducing mantle environments. 相似文献