Estimating rupture scenario likelihood based on dynamic rupture simulations: the example of the segmented Middle Durance fault, southeastern France

The Middle Durance fault system, southeastern France, is a slow active fault that produced moderate-size historical seismic events and shows evidence of at least one   M _w ≳ 6.5  event in the last 29 000 yr. Based on dynamic rupture simulation, we propose earthquake scenarios that are constrained by knowledge of both the tectonic stress field and of the 3-D geometry of the Durance fault system. We simulate dynamic rupture interaction among several fault segmentations of different strikes, dips and rakes, using a 3-D boundary integral equation method. 50 combinations of reasonable stress field orientations, stress field amplitudes and hypocentre locations are tested. The probability of different rupture evolutions is then computed. Each segment ruptures mainly as a single event (44 per cent of the 50 simulations test in this paper). However, the probability that an event triggers simultaneously along three segments is high (26 per cent), leading to a potential rupture length of 45 km. Finally, 2 per cent of the simulations occur along four adjacent segments, producing the greatest total rupture length of 55 km. The simulation results show that the southernmost segment is most easily ruptured (40 per cent), because of its favourable orientation with respect to the tectonic stress and of its favourable location for interaction with the other segments. South-bound unilateral propagation is slightly preferable (41 per cent), compared to north-bound unilateral and bilateral propagation modes. Although, these rupture scenarios cannot be directly translated into probabilities of occurrence, they do provide a better insight as to which rupture scenarios are more likely, an important element to better estimate near-field strong ground motion and seismic hazard.     

Bathymetry, biota and sediments on the Hirota Reef, Tane-ga-shima – the northernmost coral reef in the Ryukyu Islands

Abstract Investigations were conducted on bathymetry, reef biota and sediments on the Hirota Reef, Tane‐ga‐shima, North Ryukyus, near the northern limit for coral‐reef formation. A bathymetric profile from shore to the reef edge was depicted along an approximately 420‐m transect on the Hirota Coast of this island. A total of 20 quadrats (1 m × 1 m) were analyzed along the profile at 10‐ or 20‐m intervals to clarify distribution of macrobenthos inhabiting the reef. The Hirota Reef is divided into four geomorphologic zones according to their depth, gradient, surface roughness, substrate and characteristic macrobenthos. They are, from shore to offshore, shallow lagoon, seaward reef flat, reef edge and reef slope. The shallow lagoon comprises a shoreward depression (∼160 m wide on the transect) with a sand/gravel bottom that inclines gently toward offshore, and a seaward patch zone (∼70 m wide). The patches (<2 m high) are covered with fleshy algae, coralline algae and hermatypic corals. The seaward reef flat (∼190 m wide) is a flat plane that is constructed by biogenic carbonates and is covered with turf algae, with hermatypic corals scattered. Although the seaward reef flat of the Hirota Reef cannot be differentiated into different geomorphologic zones, similar seaward reef flat areas in the Central and South Ryukyus can be clearly subdivided into inner reef flat, reef crest and outer reef flat. This difference may be attributed to a lower reef growth rate and/or the later reef formation of the Hirota Reef in Holocene time than the southern examples. The coral fauna on the Hirota Reef is delineated by low diversity and characterized by taxa typical of high‐latitude, non‐reefal communities. The algal flora consists of tropical to subtropical species associated with warm‐temperate species. These faunal and floral characteristics may be related largely to lower water temperature in Tane‐ga‐shima than those in typical coral‐reef regions.     

Interferometer observations of the solar brightness distribution at 8.6 mm wavelength

The brightness distribution of the quiet Sun at 8.6 mm wavelength is synthesized from off-meridian observations using an eight element east-west interferometer with a maximum base line of 16.38 m (1913). The observed brightness distribution is practically flat from the disk center to the optical limb. The effective radius of the nearly uniform component is 1.01 R . If the limb brightening is present, the brightening located between 0.95 R and 1.01 R , and the total flux density of the limb brightening is less than 1% of the total flux density of the Sun. In addition to the nearly uniform component there exists a coronal component just outside the optical limb.     

A photometric study of poor clusters of galaxies

Sixteen poor clusters of galaxies with suspected cD galaxies are studied usingV-band photographs taken with the 105 cm Kiso Schmidt telescope. Galaxian images were automatically detected using an image detection software developed for the present study. It is found from the luminosity functions that the richness of the clusters are well correlated with the optical properties of central galaxies and the X-ray luminosities of the clusters.Paper presented at the IAU Third Asian-Pacific Regional Meeting, held in Kyoto, Japan, between 30 September–6 October, 1984.     

TWO NEW CHONDRITE-FALLS IN JAPAN

In the summer of 1984, two meteorites fell in the northern part of Honshu, Japan; Aomori, at 1:50 p.m. on June 30, and Tomiya, at 1:35 p.m. on August 22. Coordinates of the falls of the Aomori and the Tomiya are at 140°47.1'E., 40°48.6'N., and 140°51.9'E., 38°22.0'N., respectively. Results of chemical analyses of major elements, ratios of Fe_total/SiO₂ (0.546 and 0.803) and Fe_metal/Fe_total (0.332 and 0.581), and molar compositions of olivines (Fa₂₅ and Fa₁₉) indicate that the Aomori and the Tomiya are typical L- and H-group ordinary chondrites, respectively. In the Aomori, chondrules are present as relicts in the well-recrystallized matrix. Olivine and pyroxene are homogeneous in composition, and coarse clear feldspar, up to 100 micrometers in size, is well developed in the chondrules and matrix. Though the Aomori is a petrologic type 6 based on its texture and mineralogy, it includes a few grains of multiple twinned clinobronzite which is rarely observed in highly equilibrated ordinary chondrites. In the Tomiya, chondrules possess a fine-grained mesostasis, and both orthopyroxene and clinobronzite are noticeable in thin sections. Plagioclase is mostly microcrystalline, but is also sparsely present as tiny, visible grains. Thus, the Tomiya was classified to be petrologic type between 4 and 5. The deformation texture of olivine, pyroxene and plagioclase indicates that both meteorites were shocked by 0.2-0.25 Mb. In conjunction with the discussion of the frequency of meteorite-falls, all observed falls of meteorites in Japan are tabulated in this paper.     

Sedimentary Steryl Chlorin Esters (SCEs) and Other Photosynthetic Pigments as Indicators of Paleolimnological Change Over the Last 28,000 Years from the Buguldeika Saddle of Lake Baikal

Detailed depth profiles of photosynthetic pigments in a sediment core (G-12) collected at the BDP93 site, the Buguldeika saddle, of south Lake Baikal, along with depth profiles of total organic carbon (TOC) and biogenic silica, were studied to elucidate the temporal changes of phytoplankton assemblages in the lake during the past 28 kyr. In addition to the quantification of carotenoids by high-performance liquid chromatography with photodiode-array detection (HPLC-PDA), steryl chlorin esters (SCEs) were analyzed by HPLC-PDA, HPLC-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) and sterols in SCEs by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) to enrich the taxonomical information on the phytoplankton composition. Allochthonous input of organic matter from the Selenga River resulted in the higher TOC contents in core G-12 than in a previously reported core (G-6) collected at another site from the southern basin. The poorer correlation in core G-12 than in G-6 between TOC and chlorophyll-a-originating pigments, which are indicative of autochthonous production, also indicated a significant allochthonous input at the site. The abundance of lutein among the carotenoids detected, and the good correlation of total chlorophyll a and b shows that green algae represented a significant portion of the phytoplankton, accompanying the diatoms at the G-12 site, after the last glacial period. The presence of cryptomonads and cyanobacteria were confirmed from marker carotenoids in the sediment core. GC–MS analysis of sterols in SCEs detected marker sterols of diatoms, green algae, chrysophytes and dinoflagellates. The depth profiles of the measured indicators gave consistent features for temporal changes in phytoplankton assemblage at the G-12 site of Lake Baikal after the last glacial maximum. Notably, the profile of a chrysophyte-specific sterol in SCEs was consistent with the reported distribution of chrysophyte cysts during the Holocene. The presence of phytoplankton, such as green algae, diatoms and chrysophytes, in Lake Baikal during the late last glacial period was indicated by the analysis of sterols in SCEs. Sedimentary carotenoids and sterols in SCEs were found to give complementary information about phytoplankton composition. These molecular indicators allow us to reconstruct past lake phytoplankton assemblages responding to environmental changes with a time resolution as high as age–depth relationship in sediments attainable at present.     

A 640 kyr geomagnetic and palaeoclimatic record from Lake Baikal sediments

Magnetic remanence vectors for 1737 samples from two ∼100 m cores of Lake Baikal sediments are reported along with complete magnetic susceptibility profiles obtained from a pass-through system. Chronological control is established by means of two independent correlations; first, by matching susceptibility variations to the oceanic oxygen isotope record and second, by matching the relative palaeointensity variations to the SINT-800 global reference curve. These both imply an average deposition rate of 15 cm kyr^–1 and a basal age of ∼640 ka. Spectral analysis reveals the presence of Milankovitch signals at ∼100 kyr (eccentricity), ∼41 kyr (obliquity) and ∼23 and ∼19 kyr (precession). Stable remanence vectors are almost all of normal polarity. The few exceptions comprise brief intervals of low and/or negative inclinations which probably represent geomagnetic excursions. However, these are far less numerous than the high sedimentation rate would lead one to expect. Furthermore, only four of them can be readily matched to the—still poorly understood—global pattern. These are the Laschamp, the Albuquerque, the Iceland Basin and perhaps the West Eifel excursions which occurred at ∼38 000, ∼146 000, at 180 000–190 000 and at 480 000–495 000 yr ago, respectively.     

Location of radio source at 35 GHz of 2145 UT 2 August 1972 burst

The location of the radio source of a major burst at 2145 UT on 2 August 1972 is determined from observations undertaken by the 35 GHz solar interferometer at Nagoya. The location of the radio source coincides with an Hα brightening.     

Relative contribution of feedback processes to Arctic amplification of temperature change in MIROC GCM

The finding that surface warming over the Arctic exceeds that over the rest of the world under global warming is a robust feature among general circulation models (GCMs). While various mechanisms have been proposed, quantifying their relative contributions is an important task in order to understand model behavior. Here we apply a recently proposed feedback analysis technique to an atmosphere–ocean GCM under two and four times CO₂ concentrations which approximately lead to seasonally and annually sea ice-free climates. The contribution of feedbacks to Arctic temperature change is investigated. The surface warming in the Arctic is contributed by albedo, water vapour and large-scale condensation feedbacks and reduced by the evaporative cooling feedback. The surface warming contrast between the Arctic and the global averages (AA) is maintained by albedo and evaporative cooling feedbacks. The latter contributes to AA predominantly by cooling the low latitudes more than the Arctic. Latent heat transport into the Arctic increases and hence evaporative cooling plus large-scale condensation feedback contributes positively to AA. On the other hand, dry-static energy transport into the Arctic decreases and hence dynamical heating feedback contributes negatively to AA. An important contribution is thus made via changes in hydrological cycle and not via the ‘dry’ heat transport process. A larger response near the surface than aloft in the Arctic is maintained by the albedo, water vapour, and dynamical heating feedbacks, in which the albedo and water vapour feedbacks contribute through warming the surface more than aloft, and the dynamical heating feedback contributes by cooling aloft more than the surface. In our experiments, ocean and sea ice dynamics play a secondary role. It is shown that a different level of CO₂ increase introduces a latitudinal and seasonal difference into the feedbacks.