Using a groundwater quality negotiation support system to change land-use management near a drinking-water abstraction in the Netherlands

A negotiation support system (NSS) was developed to solve groundwater conflicts that arose during land-use management. It was set up in cooperation with the stakeholders involved to provide information on the impact of land use, e.g., agriculture, nature (forested areas), recreation, and urban areas, on the quality of both infiltrating and abstracted groundwater. This NSS combined simulation programs that calculate (1) the concentrations of nitrate in shallow groundwater for each land-use area and (2) the transport of nitrate in the groundwater-saturated zone. The user interface of the NSS enabled scenario analyses. The NSS was validated at a drinking-water abstraction near Holten (the Netherlands) using a spatial planning process aimed at sustainable land-use and groundwater-resource management. Two land-use scenarios were considered: a base scenario reflecting the autonomous development and an adapted land-use scenario. The calculated results for shallow groundwater provided an explicit spatial overview of the impact of historical land use and N application on the quality of abstracted groundwater as well as insight into the impact of changes in land use and N application. Visualization of the conflicting interests of agriculture and the drinking-water abstraction helped all stakeholders accept the necessary changes in land use identified by the adapted land-use scenario of the NSS. These changes were included in the preferred land-use management option in the regional planning process, which has since been formalized. The NSS provided system insight, scoping analyses, and education, in addition to generating quantitative information on the impact of land-use functions on groundwater quality.     

Silicate‐oxide mineral chemistry of mafic–ultramafic rocks as an indicator of the roots of an island arc: The Chilas Complex,Kohistan (Pakistan)

The Chilas Complex is a major lower crustal component of the Cretaceous Kohistan island arc and one of the largest exposed slices of arc magma chamber in the world. Covering more than 8000 km², it reaches a current tectonic width of around 40 km. It was emplaced at 85 Ma during rifting of the arc soon after the collision of the arc with the Karakoram plate. Over 85% of the Complex comprises homogeneous, olivine‐free gabbronorite and subordinate orthopyroxene–quartz diorite association (MGNA), which contains bodies of up to 30 km² of ultramafic–mafic–anorthositic association (UMAA) rocks. Primary cumulate textures, igneous layering, and sedimentary structures are well preserved in layered parts of the UMAA in spite of pervasive granulite facies metamorphism. Mineral analyses show that the UMAA is characterized by more magnesian and more aluminous pyroxene and more calcic plagioclase than those in the MGNA. High modal abundances of orthopyroxene, magnetite and ilmenite (in MGNA), general Mg–Fe–Al spatial variations, and an MFA plot of whole‐rock analyses suggest a calc‐alkaline origin for the Complex. Projection of the pyroxene compositions on the Wo–En–Fs face is akin to those of pyroxenes from island arcs gabbros. The presence of highly calcic plagioclase and hornblende in UMAA is indicative of hydrous parental arc magma. The complex may be a product of two‐stage partial melting of a rising mantle diaper. The MGNA rocks represent the earlier phase melting, whereas the UMAA magma resulted from the melting of the same source depleted by the extraction of the earlier melt phase. Some of the massive peridotites in the UMAA may either be cumulates or represent metasomatized and remobilized upper mantle. The Chilas Complex shows similarities with many other (supra)subduction‐related mafic–ultramafic complexes worldwide.     

Recent Results from Studies of Electric Discharges in the Mesosphere

The paper reviews recent advances in studies of electric discharges in the stratosphere and mesosphere above thunderstorms, and their effects on the atmosphere. The primary focus is on the sprite discharge occurring in the mesosphere, which is the most commonly observed high altitude discharge by imaging cameras from the ground, but effects on the upper atmosphere by electromagnetic radiation from lightning are also considered. During the past few years, co-ordinated observations over Southern Europe have been made of a wide range of parameters related to sprites and their causative thunderstorms. Observations have been complemented by the modelling of processes ranging from the electric discharge to perturbations of trace gas concentrations in the upper atmosphere. Observations point to significant energy deposition by sprites in the neutral atmosphere as observed by infrasound waves detected at up to 1000 km distance, whereas elves and lightning have been shown significantly to affect ionization and heating of the lower ionosphere/mesosphere. Studies of the thunderstorm systems powering high altitude discharges show the important role of intracloud (IC) lightning in sprite generation as seen by the first simultaneous observations of IC activity, sprite activity and broadband, electromagnetic radiation in the VLF range. Simulations of sprite ignition suggest that, under certain conditions, energetic electrons in the runaway regime are generated in streamer discharges. Such electrons may be the source of X- and Gamma-rays observed in lightning, thunderstorms and the so-called Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) observed from space over thunderstorm regions. Model estimates of sprite perturbations to the global atmospheric electric circuit, trace gas concentrations and atmospheric dynamics suggest significant local perturbations, and possibly significant meso-scale effects, but negligible global effects.     

Sensitivity of sea ice to wind-stress and radiative forcing since 1500: a model study of the Little Ice Age and beyond

Three different reconstructed wind-stress fields which take into account variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation, one general circulation model wind-stress field, and three radiative forcings (volcanic activity, insolation changes and greenhouse gas changes) are used with the UVic Earth System Climate Model to simulate the surface air temperature, the sea-ice cover, and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 1500, a period which includes the Little Ice Age (LIA). The simulated Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature, used for model validation, agrees well with several temperature reconstructions. The simulated sea-ice cover in each hemisphere responds quite differently to the forcings. In the Northern Hemisphere, the simulated sea-ice area and volume during the LIA are larger than the present-day area and volume. The wind-driven changes in sea-ice area are about twice as large as those due to thermodynamic (i.e., radiative) forcing. For the sea-ice volume, changes due to wind forcing and thermodynamics are of similar magnitude. Before 1850, the simulations suggest that volcanic activity was mainly responsible for the thermodynamically produced area and volume changes, while after 1900 the slow greenhouse gas increase was the main driver of the sea-ice changes. Changes in insolation have a small effect on the sea ice throughout the integration period. The export of the thicker sea ice during the LIA has no significant effect on the maximum strength of the AMOC. A more important process in altering the maximum strength of the AMOC and the sea-ice thickness is the wind-driven northward ocean heat transport. In the Southern Hemisphere, there are no visible long-term trends in the simulated sea-ice area or volume since 1500. The wind-driven changes are roughly four times larger than those due to radiative forcing. Prior to 1800, all the radiative forcings could have contributed to the thermodynamically driven changes in area and volume. In the 1800s the volcanic forcing was dominant, and during the first part of the 1900s both the insolation changes and the greenhouse gas forcing are responsible for thermodynamically produced changes. Finally, in the latter part of the 1900s the greenhouse gas forcing is the dominant factor in determining the sea-ice changes in the Southern Hemisphere.

How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.     

Volcano-tectonic controls and emplacement kinematics of the Iriga debris avalanches (Philippines)

Mt Iriga in southeastern Luzon is known for its spectacular collapse scar that was possibly created in 1628 ad by a 1.5-km³ debris avalanche. The debris avalanche deposit (DAD) covered 70?km² and dammed the Barit River to form Lake Buhi. The collapse has been ascribed to a non-volcanic trigger related to a major strike-slip fault under the volcano. Using a combination of fieldwork and remote sensing, we have identified a similar size, older DAD to the southwest of the edifice that originated from a sector oblique to the underlying strike-slip fault. Both deposits cover wide areas of low, waterlogged plains, to a distance of about 16?km for the oldest and 12?km for the youngest. Hundreds of metre-wide and up to 50-m-high hummocks of intact conglomerate, sand and clay units derived from the base of the volcano show that the initial failure planes cut deep into the substrata. In addition, large proportions of both DAD consist of ring-plain sediments that were incorporated by soft-sediment bulking and extensive bulldozing. An ignimbrite unit incorporated into the younger DAD forms small (less than 5?m high) discrete hummocks between the larger ones. Both debris avalanches slid over water-saturated soft sediment or ignimbrite and spread out on a basal shear zone, accommodated by horst and graben formation and strike-slip faults in the main mass. The faults are listric and flatten into a well-developed basal shear zone. This shear zone contains components from the substrate and has a diffuse contact with the intact substrata. Long, transport-normal ridges in the distal parts are evidence of compression related to deceleration and bulldozing. The collapse orientation and structure on both sectors and DAD constituents are consistent with collapse being a response to combined transtensional faulting and gravity spreading. Iriga can serve as a model for other volcanoes, such as Mayon, that stand in sedimentary basins undergoing transtensional strike-slip faulting.     

Enabling affordable omnidirectional subsurface extended image volumes via probing

Image gathers as a function of subsurface offset are an important tool for the inference of rock properties and velocity analysis in areas of complex geology. Traditionally, these gathers are thought of as multidimensional correlations of the source and receiver wavefields. The bottleneck in computing these gathers lies in the fact that one needs to store, compute, and correlate these wavefields for all shots in order to obtain the desired image gathers. Therefore, the image gathers are typically only computed for a limited number of subsurface points and for a limited range of subsurface offsets, which may cause problems in complex geological areas with large geologic dips. We overcome increasing computational and storage costs of extended image volumes by introducing a formulation that avoids explicit storage and removes the customary and expensive loop over shots found in conventional extended imaging. As a result, we end up with a matrix–vector formulation from which different image gathers can be formed and with which amplitude‐versus‐angle and wave‐equation migration velocity analysis can be performed without requiring prior information on the geologic dips. Aside from demonstrating the formation of two‐way extended image gathers for different purposes and at greatly reduced costs, we also present a new approach to conduct automatic wave‐equation‐based migration‐velocity analysis. Instead of focusing in particular offset directions and preselected subsets of subsurface points, our method focuses every subsurface point for all subsurface offset directions using a randomized probing technique. As a consequence, we obtain good velocity models at low cost for complex models without the need to provide information on the geologic dips.