Timing of the first drainage of the Baltic Ice Lake synchronous with the onset of Greenland Stadial 1

Glacial varves can give significant insights into recession and melting rates of decaying ice sheets. Moreover, varve chronologies can provide an independent means of comparison to other annually resolved climatic archives, which ultimately help to assess the timing and response of an ice sheet to changes across rapid climate transitions. Here we report a composite 1257‐year‐long varve chronology from southeastern Sweden spanning the regional late Allerød–late Younger Dryas pollen zone. The chronology was correlated to the Greenland Ice‐Core Chronology 2005 using the time‐synchronous Vedde Ash volcanic marker, which can be found in both successions. For the first time, this enables secure placement of the Lateglacial Swedish varve chronology in absolute time. Geochemical analysis from new varve successions indicate a marked change in sedimentation regime accompanied by an interruption of ice‐rafted debris deposition synchronous with the onset of Greenland Stadial 1 (GS‐1; 12 846 years before AD 1950). With the support of a simple ice‐flow/calving model, we suggest that slowdown of sediment transfer can be explained by ice‐sheet margin stabilization/advance in response to a significant drop of the Baltic Ice Lake level. A reassessment of chronological evidence from central‐western and southern Sweden further supports the hypothesis of synchronicity between the first (penultimate) catastrophic drainage of the Baltic Ice Lake and the start of GS‐1 in Greenland ice‐cores. Our results may therefore provide the first chronologically robust evidence linking continental meltwater forcing to rapid atmosphere–ocean circulation changes in the North Atlantic.     

European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries

The drop in temperature following large volcanic eruptions has been identified as an important component of natural climate variability. However, due to the limited number of large eruptions that occurred during the period of instrumental observations, the precise amplitude of post-volcanic cooling is not well constrained. Here we present new evidence on summer temperature cooling over Europe in years following volcanic eruptions. We compile and analyze an updated network of tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies, spanning the past nine centuries, and compare cooling signatures in this network with exceptionally long instrumental station records and state-of-the-art general circulation models. Results indicate post-volcanic June–August cooling is strongest in Northern Europe 2 years after an eruption (?0.52?±?0.05 °C), whereas in Central Europe the temperature response is smaller and occurs 1 year after an eruption (?0.18?±?0.07 °C). We validate these estimates by comparison with the shorter instrumental network and evaluate the statistical significance of post-volcanic summer temperature cooling in the context of natural climate variability over the past nine centuries. Finding no significant post-volcanic temperature cooling lasting longer than 2 years, our results question the ability of large eruptions to initiate long-term temperature changes through feedback mechanisms in the climate system. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to the response seen in general circulation models and emphasize the importance of considering well-documented, annually dated eruptions when assessing the significance of volcanic forcing on continental-scale temperature variations.     

Tracing tsunami signatures of the ad 551 and ad 1303 tsunamis at the Gulf of Kyparissia (Peloponnese,Greece) using direct push in situ sensing techniques combined with geophysical studies

The western Peloponnese was repeatedly hit by major tsunami impacts during historical times as reported by historical accounts and recorded in earthquake and tsunami catalogues. Geological signatures of past tsunami impacts have also been found in many coastal geological archives. During the past years, abundant geomorphological and sedimentary evidence of repeated Holocene tsunami landfall was found between Cape Katakolo and the city of Kyparissia. Moreover, neotectonic studies revealed strong crust uplift along regional faults with amounts of uplift between 13 m and 30 m since the mid-Holocene. This study focuses on the potential of direct push in situ sensing techniques to detect tsunami sediments along the Gulf of Kyparissia. Direct push measurements were conducted on the landward shores of the Kaiafa Lagoon and the former Mouria Lagoon from which sedimentary and microfaunal evidence for tsunami landfall are already known. Direct push methods helped to decipher in situ high-resolution stratigraphic records of allochthonous sand sheets that are used to document different kinds of sedimentological and geomorphological characteristics of high-energy inundation, such as abrupt increases in grain size, integration of muddy rip-up clasts and fining upward sequences which are representative of different tsunami inundation pulses. These investigations were completed by sediment coring as a base for local calibration of geophysical direct push parameters. Surface-based electrical resistivity tomography and seismic data with highly resolved vertical direct push datasets and sediment core data were all coupled in order to improve the quality of the geophysical models. Details of this methodological approach, new in palaeotsunami research, are presented and discussed, especially with respect to the question of how the obtained results may help to facilitate tracing tsunami signatures in the sedimentary record and deciphering geomorphological characteristics of past tsunami inundation. Using direct push techniques and based on sedimentary data, sedimentary signatures of two young tsunami impacts that hit the Kaiafa Lagoon were detected. Radiocarbon age control allowed the identification of these tsunami layers as candidates for the ad 551 and ad 1303 earthquake and tsunami events. For these events, there is reliable historical data on major damage on infrastructure in western Greece and on the Peloponnese. At the former Mouria Lagoon, corroborating tsunami traces were found; however, in this case it is difficult to decide whether these signatures were caused by the ad 551 or the ad 1303 event.     

Measuring channel planform change from image time series: A generalizable,spatially distributed,probabilistic method for quantifying uncertainty

Channels change in response to natural or anthropogenic fluctuations in streamflow and/or sediment supply and measurements of channel change are critical to many river management applications. Whereas repeated field surveys are costly and time-consuming, remote sensing can be used to detect channel change at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Repeat images have been widely used to measure long-term channel change, but these measurements are only significant if the magnitude of change exceeds the uncertainty. Existing methods for characterizing uncertainty have two important limitations. First, while the use of a spatially variable image co-registration error avoids the assumption that errors are spatially uniform, this type of error, as originally formulated, can only be applied to linear channel adjustments, which provide less information on channel change than polygons of erosion and deposition. Second, previous methods use a level-of-detection (LoD) threshold to remove non-significant measurements, which is problematic because real changes that occurred but were smaller than the LoD threshold would be removed. In this study, we present a new method of quantifying uncertainty associated with channel change based on probabilistic, spatially varying estimates of co-registration error and digitization uncertainty that obviates a LoD threshold. The spatially distributed probabilistic (SDP) method can be applied to both linear channel adjustments and polygons of erosion and deposition, making this the first uncertainty method generalizable to all metrics of channel change. Using a case study from the Yampa River, Colorado, we show that the SDP method reduced the magnitude of uncertainty and enabled us to detect smaller channel changes as significant. Additionally, the distributional information provided by the SDP method allowed us to report the magnitude of channel change with an appropriate level of confidence in cases where a simple LoD approach yielded an indeterminate result. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diagnosing ocean tracer transport from Sellafield and Dounreay by equivalent diffusion and age

A simple approach for estimating the equivalent diffusion for diagnosing tracer transport is proposed. Two different expressions are derived; one is based directly on an analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection-diffusion equation, the other uses the variance of the tracer distribution. To illustrate some features of the equivalent diffusion and possible applications thereof, idealized releases of passive tracers from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plants at Sellafield in the Irish Sea and Dounreay on the northern coast of Scotland have been simulated with a regional isopycnic co-ordinate Ocean General Circulation Model. Both continuous and pulse releases are considered; the former being representative of the actual historical discharges from the reprocessing plants, the latter resembling an accidental scenario. Age tracers are included to calculate the mean time elapsed since the tracers left their source regions. It is found that in the Nordic Seas the age of tracers from Dounreay is approximately 2 years younger than the age from Sellafield. Although tracers from both sources eventually end up along the same transport routes, significant qualitative differences regarding the dispersion properties are found. It is argued that one single parameter, the equivalent horizontal diffusion, which is estimated to be in the range of 20 56 m^2 s^-1 from Sellafield and 170-485 m^2 s^-1 from Dounreay, determines these differences.     

Authorship in IPCC AR5 and its implications for content: climate change and Indigenous populations in WGII

This essay examines the extent to which we can expect Indigenous Knowledge, understanding, and voices on climate change (??Indigenous content??) to be captured in WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), based on an analysis of chapter authorship. Reviewing the publishing history of 309 chapter authors (CAs) to WGII, we document 9 (2.9%) to have published on climate change and Indigenous populations and involved as authors in 6/30 chapters. Drawing upon recent scholarship highlighting how authorship affect structure and content of assessment reports, we argue that, unaddressed, this will affect the extent to which Indigenous content is examined and assessed. While it is too late to alter the structure of AR5, there are opportunities to prioritize the recruitment of contributing authors and reviewers with expertise on Indigenous issues, raise awareness among CAs on the characteristics of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability faced by Indigenous peoples, and highlight how Indigenous perspectives can help broaden our understanding of climate change and policy interventions.     

Flow through nets and trawls of low porosity

In trawls intended for harvesting marine zooplankton the mesh size and twine thickness may be as small as O(10⁻⁴ m), the porosity less than 0.5 and the appropriate Reynolds number O(10⁰−10²). The flow locally through the meshes varies strongly with the Reynolds number in this range, and the entire flow field, filtered volume and drag of such nets therefore depend strongly on the net parameters and towing velocity.This paper presents a simplified model for the flow through and forces on inclined permeable screens based on pressure drop considerations. For conical nets the model provides simple expressions for the filtration efficiency and drag as functions of twine diameter, mesh opening, porosity, taper angle and flow (towing) velocity. Comparisons with test tank measurements of typical plankton nets show good agreement.