Vulnerability and its discontents: the past,present, and future of climate change vulnerability research

The agri-food sector must adapt to changes in climate variability, while also helping to mitigate climate change. Measures termed ‘triple-win’ mitigate and adapt to climate change, while also improving soil health, thereby increasing yields. These measures might appear to be the easiest to implement, but in practice, barriers prevent full realisation. This study aims to move beyond previous research efforts that identify and categorise barriers by (i) revealing hidden barriers, (ii) understanding the interactions between barriers and (iii) exploring ways to address barriers. A case study focusing on crop rotation as a triple-win strategy in Ukraine demonstrates how a participant-driven iterative research approach can achieve these objectives. During semi-structured interviews with farmers and stakeholders, crop rotation emerged as an area of considerable dissensus with stakeholders commonly citing the greedy behaviour of producers as the problem. Further discussion indicated that the political economy of Ukraine caused financial constraints for producers and Q methodology allowed for additional clarity on the opposing views of crop rotation. Three factors emerged: producer insecurity, national insecurity and business insecurity. These three perspectives reveal contrasting priorities with producer insecurity and business insecurity concerned with the conditions under which producers must operate, while national insecurity has a focus on improving agricultural production to benefit the nation. Consensus statements across all factors could provide first steps to addressing barriers and an opportunity to open discussions amongst stakeholders. Finally, barriers arising from political processes demonstrate that climate policy needs to be integrated with other sector-specific policy decisions.     

Depth habitats and seasonal distributions of recent planktic foraminifers in the Canary Islands region (29°N) based on oxygen isotopes

Seasonal depth stratified plankton tows, sediment traps and core tops taken from the same stations along a transect at 29°N off NW Africa are used to describe the seasonal succession, the depth habitats and the oxygen isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O_shell) of five planktic foraminiferal species. Both the δ¹⁸O_shell and shell concentration profiles show variations in seasonal depth habitats of individual species. None of the species maintain a specific habitat depth exclusively within the surface mixed layer (SML), within the thermocline, or beneath the thermocline. Globigerinoides ruber (white) and (pink) occur with moderate abundance throughout the year along the transect, with highest abundances in the winter and summer/fall season, respectively. The average δ¹⁸O_shell of G. ruber (w) from surface sediments is similar to the δ¹⁸O_shell values measured from the sediment-trap samples during winter. However, the δ¹⁸O_shell of G. ruber (w) underestimates sea surface temperature (SST) by 2 °C in winter and by 4 °C during summer/fall indicating an extension of the calcification/depth habitat into colder thermocline waters. Globigerinoides ruber (p) continues to calcify below the SML as well, particularly in summer/fall when the chlorophyll maximum is found within the thermocline. Its vertical distribution results in δ¹⁸O_shell values that underestimate SST by 2 °C. Shell fluxes of Globigerina bulloides are highest in summer/fall, where it lives and calcifies in association with the deep chlorophyll maximum found within the thermocline. Pulleniatina obliquiloculata and Globorotalia truncatulinoides, dwelling and calcifying a part of their lives in the winter SML, record winter thermocline (～180 m) and deep surface water (～350 m) temperatures, respectively. Our observations define the seasonal and vertical distribution of multiple species of foraminifera and the acquisition of their δ¹⁸O_shell.     

Effects of fracture lineaments and in-situ rock stresses on groundwater flow in hard rocks: a case study from Sunnfjord, western Norway

Systematic field mapping of fracture lineaments observed on aerial photographs shows that almost all of these structures are positively correlated with zones of high macroscopic and mesoscopic fracture frequencies compared with the surroundings. The lineaments are subdivided into zones with different characteristics: (1) a central zone with fault rocks, high fracture frequency and connectivity but commonly with mineral sealed fractures, and (2) a damage zone divided into a proximal zone with a high fracture frequency of lineament parallel, non-mineralized and interconnected fractures, grading into a distal zone with lower fracture frequencies and which is transitional to the surrounding areas with general background fracturing. To examine the possible relations between lineament architecture and in-situ rock stress on groundwater flow, the geological fieldwork was followed up by in-situ stress measurements and test boreholes at selected sites. Geophysical well logging added valuable information about fracture distribution and fracture flow at depths. Based on the studies of in-situ stresses as well as the lineaments and associated fracture systems presented above, two working hypotheses for groundwater flow were formulated: (i) In areas with a general background fracturing and in the distal zone of lineaments, groundwater flow will mainly occur along fractures parallel with the largest in-situ rock stress, unless fractures are critically loaded or reactivated as shear fractures at angles around 30° to σ_H; (ii) In the influence area of lineaments, the largest potential for groundwater abstraction is in the proximal zone, where there is a high fracture frequency and connectivity with negligible fracture fillings. The testing of the two hypotheses does not give a clear and unequivocal answer in support of the two assumptions about groundwater flow in the study area. But most of the observed data are in agreement with the predictions from the models, and can be explained by the action of the present stress field on pre-existing fractures.     

Characterizing Io’s Pele,Tvashtar and Pillan plumes: Lessons learned from Hubble

Hubble Space Telescope/Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 (HST/WFPC2) images of Io obtained between 1995 and 2007 between 0.24 and 0.42 μm led to the detection of the Pele plume in reflected sunlight in 1995 and 1999; imaging of the Pele plume via absorption of jovian light in 1996 and 1999; detection of the Prometheus-type Pillan plume in reflected sunlight in 1997; and detection of the 2007 Pele-type Tvashtar plume eruption in reflected sunlight and via absorption of jovian light. Based on a detailed analysis of these observations we characterize and compare the gas and dust properties of each of the detected plumes. In each case, the brightness of the plumes in reflected sunlight is less at 0.26 μm than at 0.33 μm. Mie scattering analysis of the wavelength dependence of each plume’s reflectance signature suggests that range of particle sizes within the plumes is quite narrow. Assuming a normal distribution of particle sizes, the range of mean particle sizes is ～0.035–0.12 μm for the 1997 Pillan eruption, ～0.05–0.08 μm for the 1999 Pele and 2007 Tvasthar plumes, and ～0.05–0.11 μm for the 1995 Pele plume, and in each case the standard deviation in the particle size distribution is <15%. The Mie analysis also suggests that the 2007 Tvashtar eruption released ～10⁹ g of sulfur dust, the 1999 Pele eruption released ～10⁹ g of SO₂ dust, the 1997 Pillan eruption released ～10¹⁰ g of SO₂ dust, and the 1995 Pele plume may have released ～10¹⁰ g of SO₂ dust. Analysis of the plume absorption signatures recorded in the F255W filter bandpass (0.24–0.28 μm) indicates that the opacity of the 2007 Tvashtar plume was 2× that of the 1996 and 1999 Pele plume eruptions. While the sulfur dust density estimated for the Tvashtar from the reflected sunlight data could have produced 61% of the observed plume opacity, <10% of the 1999 Pele F255W plume opacity could have resulted from the SO₂ dust detected in the eruption. Accounting for the remaining F255W opacity level of the Pele and Tvasthar plumes based on SO₂ and S₂ gas absorption, the SO₂ and S₂ gas density inferred for each plume is almost equivalent corresponding to ～2–6 × 10¹⁶ cm^?2 and 3–5 × 10¹⁵ cm^?2, respectively, producing SO₂ and S₂ gas resurfacing rates ～0.04–0.2 cm yr^?1 and 0.007–0.01 cm yr^?1; and SO₂ and S₂ gas masses ～1–4 × 10¹⁰ g and ～2–3 × 10⁹ g; for a total dust to gas ratio in the plumes ～10^?1–10^?2. The 2007 Tvashtar plume was detected by HST at ～380 ± 40 km in both reflected sunlight and absorbed jovian light; in 1999, the detected Pele plume altitude was 500 km in absorbed jovian light, but in reflected sunlight the detected height was ～2× lower. Thus, for the 1999 Pele plume, similar to the 1979 Voyager Pele plume observations, the most efficient dust reflections occurred in the region closest to the plume vent. The 0.33–0.42 μm brightness of the 1997 Pillan plume was 10–20× greater than the Pele or Tvashtar plumes, exceeding by a factor of 3 the average brightness levels observed within 200 km of 1979 Loki eruption vent. But, the 0.26 μm brightness of the 1997 Pillan plume in reflected sunlight was significantly lower than would be predicted by the dust scattering model. Presuming that the 0.26 μm brightness of the 1997 Pillan plume was attenuated by the eruption plume’s gas component, then an SO₂ gas density ～3–6 × 10¹⁸ cm^?2 is inferred from the data (for S₂/SO₂ ratios ?4%), comparable to the 0.3–2 × 10¹⁸ cm^?2 SO₂ density detected at Loki in 1979 (Pearl, J.C. et al. [1979]. Nature 280, 755; Lellouch et al., 1992), and producing an SO₂ gas mass ～3–8 × 10¹¹ g and an SO₂ resurfacing rate ～8–23 cm yr^?1. These results confirm the connection between high (?10¹⁷ cm^?2) SO₂ gas content and plumes that scatter strongly at nearly blue wavelengths, and it validates the occurrence of high density SO₂ gas eruptions on Io. Noting that the SO₂ gas content inferred from a spectrum of the 2003 Pillan plume was significantly lower ～2 × 10¹⁶ cm^?2 (Jessup, K.L., Spencer, J., Yelle, R. [2007]. Icarus 192, 24–40); and that the Pillan caldera was flooded with fresh SO₂ frost/slush just prior to the 1997 Pillan plume eruption (Geissler, P., McEwen, A., Phillips, C., Keszthelyi, L., Spencer, J. [2004a]. Icarus 169, 29–64; Phillips, C.B. [2000]. Voyager and Galileo SSI Views of Volcanic Resurfacing on Io and the Search for Geologic Activity at Europa. Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of Ariz., Tucson); we propose that the density of SO₂ gas released by this volcano is directly linked to the local SO₂ frost abundance at the time of eruption.     

Detecting the stepwise propagation of the Eastern Sicily thrust belt (Italy): insight from thermal and thermochronological constraints

An extensive dataset of vitrinite reflectance, FTIR parameters on organic matter, illite content in mixed layers illite‐smectite, apatite fission tracks and U‐Th/He dating has been used to reconstruct the stepwise propagation of the Eastern Sicily fold‐and‐thrust belt during Late Palaeogene and Neogene times. The results indicate that the fold‐and‐thrust belt is divisible into two levels of thermal maturity. These levels consist of a less evolved level of thermal maturity that records limited sedimentary burial and minor heating, and a more evolved level of thermal maturity that indicates tectonic burial and exhumation at different times. Deformation and exhumation of shallowly buried units are linked to wedge forward propagation by low‐angle thrusts, whereas the evolution of deeply buried units is associated with tectonic imbrications by duplex formation and steep thrusts. The two tectonic styles alternate during evolution of the fold‐and‐thrust belt under low erosion rates.     

Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale

In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a large increase in the activity of tsunami hazard and risk mapping is observed. Most of these are site-specific studies with detailed modelling of the run-up locally. However, fewer studies exist on the regional and global scale. Therefore, tsunamis have been omitted in previous global studies comparing different natural hazards. Here, we present a first global tsunami hazard and population exposure study. A key topic is the development of a simple and robust method for obtaining reasonable estimates of the maximum water level during tsunami inundation. This method is mainly based on plane wave linear hydrostatic transect simulations, and validation against results from a standard run-up model is given. The global hazard study is scenario based, focusing on tsunamis caused by megathrust earthquakes only, as the largest events will often contribute more to the risk than the smaller events. Tsunamis caused by non-seismic sources are omitted. Hazard maps are implemented by conducting a number of tsunami scenario simulations supplemented with findings from literature. The maps are further used to quantify the number of people exposed to tsunamis using the Landscan population data set. Because of the large geographical extents, quantifying the tsunami hazard assessment is focusing on overall trends.     

An aromatase inhibitor and tamoxifen decrease plasma levels of o,p'-DDT and its metabolites in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus)

The objective of this study was to determine if tamoxifen or an aromatase inhibitor (4-hydroxyandrostenedione; 4-OHA) affected plasma concentrations of o,p' -DDT and its metabolites, o,p'-DDD and o,p'-DDE, in mature tilapia. Male and female tilapia were injected 6 times intraperitoneally with o,p'-DDT (40 mg/kg) alone or in combination with 4-OHA (2 mg/kg) over a 12 day period. An additional group of male fish was injected with tamoxifen (5 mg/kg) plus o,p'-DDT. At the end of the treatment period, plasma samples were extracted and analyzed by GC/ECD. Females injected only with o,p'-DDT had significantly higher levels of o,p'-DDT compared with males. Interestingly, females and males treated concomitantly with o,p'-DDT and 4-OHA or tamoxifen had significantly lower concentrations of plasma o,p'-DDT (about 50%) compared with fish treated with only o,p'-DDT. These initial results suggest that an interaction between endocrine-active compounds occurs in vivo in tilapia and may involve alterations in metabolism of o,p'-DDT.