Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.     

Geology of the Pedwardine district,Herefordshire and Powys

The stratigraphy of the Pedwardine inlier of Precambrian (Longmyndian), Tremadoc, and what are now shown to be upper Llandovery rocks is described. The inlier is surrounded by Silurian rocks, including upper Llandovery (two very small areas), Wenlock, Ludlow and Přídolí (Red Downton Formation). The Ludlow rocks provide a distal record of the mass movement recorded more fully in the Wigmore Rolls area to the east. The Pedwardine area lies along the Church Stretton Fault Zone. Though ill-exposed, it shows evidence of the history of faulting, including thrusting. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In‐Situ Sonication for Enhanced Recovery of Aquifer Microbial Communities

Sampling methods for characterization of microbial communities in aquifers should target both suspended and attached microorganisms (biofilms). We investigated the effectiveness and reproducibility of low‐frequency (200 Hz) sonication pulses on improving extraction efficiency and quality of microorganisms from a petroleum‐contaminated aquifer in Studen (Switzerland). Sonication pulses at different power levels (0.65, 0.9, and 1.1 kW) were applied to three different groundwater monitoring wells. Groundwater samples extracted after each pulse were compared with background groundwater samples for cell and adenosine tri‐phosphate concentration. Turbidity values were obtained to assess the release of sediment fines and associated microorganisms. The bacterial community in extracted groundwater samples was analyzed by terminal‐restriction‐fragment‐length polymorphism and compared with communities obtained from background groundwater samples and from sediment cores. Sonication enhanced the extraction efficiency up to 13‐fold, with most of the biomass being associated with the sediment fines extracted with groundwater. Consecutive pulses at constant power were decreasingly effective, while pulses with higher power yielded the best results both in terms of extraction efficiency and quality. Our results indicate that low‐frequency sonication may be a viable and cost‐effective tool to improve the extraction of microorganisms from aquifers, taking advantage of existing groundwater monitoring wells.     

Denudation and retreat of the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil derived from in situ‐produced 10Be concentration in river sediment

The Serra do Mar escarpment, located along the southeastern coast of Brazil, is a high‐elevation passive margin escarpment. This escarpment evolved from the denudation of granites, migmatites and gneisses. The granites outcrop in the form of a ridge along the escarpment crest, due to its differential erosion (‘sugarloaf’ hills) from the surrounding lithologies. Several studies suggest that the passive margin escarpments are actively retreating toward the interior of the continent. However, no prior study has calculated the long‐term denudation rates of Serra do Mar to test this hypothesis. In this study, we measured the in situ‐produced ¹⁰Be concentration in fluvial sediments to quantify the catchment‐wide long‐term denudation rates of the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil. We sampled the fluvial sediments from ten watersheds that drain both sides of the escarpment. The average long‐term denudation rate of the oceanic side is between 2.1‐ and 2.6‐fold higher than the rate of the continental side: 26.04 ± 1.88 mm ka^‐1 (integrating over between 15.8 ka^‐1 and 46.6 ka^‐1) and 11.10 ± 0.37 mm ka^‐1 (integrating over between 52.9 ka^‐1 and 85.4 ka^‐1), respectively. These rates indicate that the coastal base level is controlling the escarpment retreat toward the continental high lands, which is consistent with observations made at other high‐elevation passive margins around the globe. The results also demonstrate the differential erosion along the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil during the Quaternary, where drainages over granites had lower average denudation rates in comparison with those over migmatites and gneisses. Moreover, the results demonstrate that the ocean‐facing catchments have been eroded more intensely than those facing the continent. The results also reveal that drainage over the granites decreases the average denudation rates of the ocean‐facing catchments and the ‘sugarloaf’ hills therefore are natural barriers that slowly retreat once they are exhumed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decadal variations in a Venus general circulation model

The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), a 3-dimensional Earth-based climate model, has been modified to simulate the dynamics of the Venus atmosphere. The most current finite volume version of CAM is used with Earth-related processes removed, parameters appropriate for Venus introduced, and some basic physics approximations adopted. A simplified Newtonian cooling approximation has been used for the radiation scheme. We use a high resolution (1° by 1° in latitude and longitude) to take account of small-scale dynamical processes that might be important on Venus. A Rayleigh friction approach is used at the lower boundary to represent surface drag, and a similar approach is implemented in the uppermost few model levels providing a ‘sponge layer’ to prevent wave reflection from the upper boundary. The simulations generate superrotation with wind velocities comparable to those measured in the Venus atmosphere by probes and around 50-60% of those measured by cloud tracking. At cloud heights and above the atmosphere is always superrotating with mid-latitude zonal jets that wax and wane on an approximate 10 year cycle. However, below the clouds, the zonal winds vary periodically on a decadal timescale between superrotation and subrotation. Both subrotating and superrotating mid-latitude jets are found in the approximate 40-60 km altitude range. The growth and decay of the sub-cloud level jets also occur on the decadal timescale. Though subrotating zonal winds are found below the clouds, the total angular momentum of the atmosphere is always in the sense of superrotation. The global relative angular momentum of the atmosphere oscillates with an amplitude of about 5% on the approximate 10 year timescale. Symmetric instability in the near surface equatorial atmosphere might be the source of the decadal oscillation in the atmospheric state. Analyses of angular momentum transport show that all the jets are built up by poleward transport by a meridional circulation while angular momentum is redistributed to lower latitudes primarily by transient eddies. Possible changes in the structure of Venus’ cloud level mid-latitude jets measured by Mariner 10, Pioneer Venus, and Venus Express suggest that a cyclic variation similar to that found in the model might occur in the real Venus atmosphere, although no subrotating winds below the cloud level have been observed to date. Venus’ atmosphere must be observed over multi-year timescales and below the clouds if we are to understand its dynamics.     

Tidal exposure or microhabitats: what determines sandy‐beach nematode zonation? a case study of a macrotidal ridge‐and‐runnel sandy beach in Belgium

Lately, across‐shore zonation has been found to be more important in structuring the nematode community of a tropical macrotidal sandy beach than microhabitat heterogeneity. To evaluate whether this zonation pattern applies to a temperate beach, a macrotidal ridge‐and‐runnels sandy beach in the North Sea was studied. We investigated whether a similar zonation occurs in sandbar and runnel microhabitats, and whether the runnels harbour a different community from the subtidal. Our results indicate that nematode communities from runnel and sandbar habitats are significantly different. In addition, horizontal zonation patterns for nematode communities differ between both habitats. Nematode assemblages from sandbars are divided to lower, middle and upper beach while upper and middle runnels cluster together. The subtidal and upper runnels showed dissimilar nematode assemblages, although runnels showed the same dominant species (Daptonema normandicum), which increases its abundance towards the upper runnels. This study illustrates the importance of microhabitat heterogeneity, which resulted in different zonation patterns across the sandy beach examined. The divergent zonation between sandbars and runnels in the macrotidal temperate sandy beach, compared with the pattern observed for a subtropical sandy beach with similar morphodynamics, indicates that generalizations about nematode distribution patterns should be made with caution.     

Copper in the sediment and sea surface microlayer near a fallowed, open-net fish farm

Sediment and sea surface microlayer samples near an open-net salmon farm in Nova Scotia, were analysed for copper. Copper is a constituent of the feed and is an active ingredient of anti-foulants. The salmon farm was placed in fallow after 15years of production. Sampling was pursued over 27months. Elevated copper concentrations in the sediments indicated the farm site as a source. Bubble flotation due to gas-emitting sediments from eutrophication is a likely process for accumulating copper in the sea surface microlayer at enriched concentrations. Elevated and enriched concentrations in the sea surface microlayer over distance from the farm site led, as a result of wind-drift, to an enlarged farm footprint. The levels of copper in both sediments and sea surface microlayer exceeded guidelines for protection of marine life. Over the 27months period, copper levels persisted in the sediments and decreased gradually in the sea surface microlayer.     

Trust in the fisheries scientific community

This paper explores the issue of “trust” in the fisheries science community, a key corollary of effective risk communication. It presents the findings of a survey undertaken in Iceland, Greece, Spain, United Kingdom and Faroe Islands during 2008. The findings reveal differing levels of trust and mistrust in the fisheries science community between countries and between stakeholder groups, demonstrating areas for future attention in the interests of improving fisheries science and management. As this paper explores, unfortunately the “trust” necessary for effective stakeholder cooperation and participation within current fisheries science is currently somewhat lacking. The cited reasons behind this lack of trust include: a lack of soundness, credibility, responsiveness, flexibility and stakeholder involvement, flawed data and weak science, poor communications and political and lobby group interference. Notable from the results is a lack of consensus on the existence of a common language and vision. It is evident, however, that certain aspects of fisheries science are strong contributors to trust and that there are opportunities for improvement.     

Tracking eutrophication in Taihu Lake using the diatom record: potential and problems

Taihu Lake is the third largest freshwater lake in China and has been experiencing eutrophication problems for several decades. Diatoms in short sediment cores from three bays in northern Taihu Lake were studied in addition to 1-year of seasonal phytoplankton samples in order to evaluate the rate and magnitude of nutrient enrichment. The dominant species found in the phytoplankton samples appeared in high percentages in the surface sediment samples, suggesting that the latter faithfully record the modern diatom flora. The diatom preservation status varied among the three cores, while in all cores the preservation deteriorated with sediment depth. Due to the superior diatom preservation in the core from Mashan Bay, the fossil diatom record of this core and an established diatom total phosphorus (TP) transfer function were used to reconstruct the nutrient history of Taihu Lake. Diatom assemblages changed from Aulacoseira-dominated to other eutrophic planktonic species, such as Stephanodiscus minutulus, Cyclostephanos tholiformis, Cyclotella atomus, C. meneghiniana and S. hantzschii in ca. 1980. Diatom-inferred TP concentrations exhibited little change prior to 1980, with values around 50 μg/l. However, after 1980 TP concentrations increased significantly and remained in excess of 100 μg/l, reflecting eutrophication of Taihu Lake. Comparison with TP measurements in the water column from 1988 to 2004, as well as the analogue analysis among fossil and modern samples, demonstrates that the diatom-TP inference model can reliably hindcast past TP concentrations. Therefore, the baseline TP value of about 50 μg/l, can be used as a restoration target for Taihu Lake. However, due to the complexity of this very large, shallow aquatic ecosystem, caution should be exercised when employing the diatom record to track eutrophication. Further studies on the mechanism of diatom distribution, evolution and preservation are recommended for Taihu Lake.