Including animal to plant protein shifts in climate change mitigation policy: a proposed three-step strategy

Strong and rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, far beyond those currently committed to, are required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. This allows no sector to maintain business as usual practices, while application of the precautionary principle requires avoiding a reliance on negative emission technologies. Animal to plant-sourced protein shifts offer substantial potential for GHG emission reductions. Unabated, the livestock sector could take between 37% and 49% of the GHG budget allowable under the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively, by 2030. Inaction in the livestock sector would require substantial GHG reductions, far beyond what are planned or realistic, from other sectors. This outlook article outlines why animal to plant-sourced protein shifts should be taken up by the Conference of the Parties (COP), and how they could feature as part of countries’ mitigation commitments under their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to be adopted from 2020 onwards. The proposed framework includes an acknowledgment of ‘peak livestock’, followed by targets for large and rapid reductions in livestock numbers based on a combined ‘worst first’ and ‘best available food’ approach. Adequate support, including climate finance, is needed to facilitate countries in implementing animal to plant-sourced protein shifts.

Key policy insights

• Given the livestock sector’s significant contribution to global GHG emissions and methane dominance, animal to plant protein shifts make a necessary contribution to meeting the Paris temperature goals and reducing warming in the short term, while providing a suite of co-benefits.

• Without action, the livestock sector could take between 37% and 49% of the GHG budget allowable under the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively, by 2030.

• Failure to implement animal to plant protein shifts increases the risk of exceeding temperate goals; requires additional GHG reductions from other sectors; and increases reliance on negative emissions technologies.

• COP 24 is an opportunity to bring animal to plant protein shifts to the climate mitigation table.

• Revised NDCs from 2020 should include animal to plant protein shifts, starting with a declaration of ‘peak livestock’, followed by a ‘worst first’ replacement approach, guided by ‘best available food’.

     

Lagrangian measurements and modelling of fluid advection in the inner surf and swash zones

New laboratory and field data are presented on fluid advection into the swash zone. The data illustrate the region of the inner surf zone from which sediment can be directly advected into the swash zone during a single uprush, which is termed the advection length. Experiments were conducted by particle tracking in a Lagrangian reference frame, and were performed for monochromatic breaking waves, solitary bores, non-breaking solitary waves and field conditions. The advection length is normalised by the run-up length to give an advection ratio, A, and different advection ratios are identified on the basis of the experimental data. The data show that fluid enters the swash zone from a region of the inner surf zone that can extend a distance seaward of the bore collapse location that is approximately equal to half of the run-up length. This region is about eight times wider than the region predicted by the classical swash solution of Shen and Meyer [Shen, M.C., Meyer, R.E., 1963. Climb of a bore on a beach. Part 3. Runup. Journal of Fluid Mechanics 16, 113–125], as illustrated by Pritchard and Hogg [Pritchard, D., Hogg, A.J., 2005. On the transport of suspended sediment by a swash event on a plane beach. Coastal Engineering 52, 1–23]. Measured advection ratios for periodic waves show no significant trend with Iribarren number, consistent with self-similarity in typical swash flows. The data are compared to recent characteristic solutions of the non-linear shallow water wave (NLSW) equations and both finite difference and finite volume solutions of the NLSW equations.     

Nonequilibrium Processes in the Solar Corona,Transition Region,Flares, and Solar Wind <Emphasis Type="Italic">(Invited Review)</Emphasis>

We review the presence and signatures of the non-equilibrium processes, both non-Maxwellian distributions and non-equilibrium ionization, in the solar transition region, corona, solar wind, and flares. Basic properties of the non-Maxwellian distributions are described together with their influence on the heat flux as well as on the rates of individual collisional processes and the resulting optically thin synthetic spectra. Constraints on the presence of high-energy electrons from observations are reviewed, including positive detection of non-Maxwellian distributions in the solar corona, transition region, flares, and wind. Occurrence of non-equilibrium ionization is reviewed as well, especially in connection to hydrodynamic and generalized collisional-radiative modeling. Predicted spectroscopic signatures of non-equilibrium ionization depending on the assumed plasma conditions are summarized. Finally, we discuss the future remote-sensing instrumentation that can be used for the detection of these non-equilibrium phenomena in various spectral ranges.     

Effective Acceleration Model for the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Shocks driven by Coronal Mass Ejections

In a previous work (Paouris and Mavromichalaki in Solar Phys. 292, 30, 2017), we presented a total of 266 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) with as much information as possible. We developed a new empirical model for estimating the acceleration of these events in the interplanetary medium from this analysis. In this work, we present a new approach on the effective acceleration model (EAM) for predicting the arrival time of the shock that preceds a CME, using data of a total of 214 ICMEs. For the first time, the projection effects of the linear speed of CMEs are taken into account in this empirical model, which significantly improves the prediction of the arrival time of the shock. In particular, the mean value of the time difference between the observed time of the shock and the predicted time was equal to +3.03 hours with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 18.58 hours and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 22.47 hours. After the improvement of this model, the mean value of the time difference is decreased to ?0.28 hours with an MAE of 17.65 hours and an RMSE of 21.55 hours. This improved version was applied to a set of three recent Earth-directed CMEs reported in May, June, and July of 2017, and we compare our results with the values predicted by other related models.     

Guiding ecological principles for marine spatial planning

The declining health of marine ecosystems around the world is evidence that current piecemeal governance is inadequate to successfully support healthy coastal and ocean ecosystems and sustain human uses of the ocean. One proposed solution to this problem is ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP), which is a process that informs the spatial distribution of activities in the ocean so that existing and emerging uses can be maintained, use conflicts reduced, and ecosystem health and services protected and sustained for future generations. Because a key goal of ecosystem-based MSP is to maintain the delivery of ecosystem services that humans want and need, it must be based on ecological principles that articulate the scientifically recognized attributes of healthy, functioning ecosystems. These principles should be incorporated into a decision-making framework with clearly defined targets for these ecological attributes. This paper identifies ecological principles for MSP based on a synthesis of previously suggested and/or operationalized principles, along with recommendations generated by a group of twenty ecologists and marine scientists with diverse backgrounds and perspectives on MSP. The proposed four main ecological principles to guide MSP—maintaining or restoring: native species diversity, habitat diversity and heterogeneity, key species, and connectivity—and two additional guidelines, the need to account for context and uncertainty, must be explicitly taken into account in the planning process. When applied in concert with social, economic, and governance principles, these ecological principles can inform the designation and siting of ocean uses and the management of activities in the ocean to maintain or restore healthy ecosystems, allow delivery of marine ecosystem services, and ensure sustainable economic and social benefits.     

Hydrological responses to climatic variability in a cold agricultural region

Extended severe dry and wet periods are frequently observed in the northern continental climate of the Canadian Prairies. Prairie streamflow is mainly driven by spring snowmelt of the winter snowpack, whilst summer rainfall is an important control on evapotranspiration and thus seasonality affects the hydrological response to drought and wet periods in complex ways. A field‐tested physically based model was used to investigate the influences of climatic variability on hydrological processes in this region. The model was set up to resolve agricultural fields and to include key cold regions processes. It was parameterized from local and regional measurements without calibration and run for the South Tobacco Creek basin in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model was tested against snow depth and streamflow observations at multiple scales and performed well enough to explore the impacts of wet and dry periods on hydrological processes governing the basin scale hydrological response. Four hydro‐climatic patterns with distinctive climatic seasonality and runoff responses were identified from differing combinations of wet/dry winter and summer seasons. Water balance analyses of these patterns identified substantive multiyear subsurface soil moisture storage depletion during drought (2001–2005) and recharge during a subsequent wet period (2009–2011). The fractional percentage of heavy rainfall days was a useful metric to explain the contrasting runoff volumes between dry and wet summers. Finally, a comparison of modeling approaches highlights the importance of antecedent fall soil moisture, ice lens formation during the snowmelt period, and peak snow water equivalent in simulating snowmelt runoff.     

Flood seasonality across Scandinavia—Evidence of a shifting hydrograph?

Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt‐dominated to a rainfall‐dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large‐scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near‐natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt‐dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5–35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5–60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt‐dominated to rainfall‐dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first‐order climate control as well as a local second‐order catchment control, which causes inter‐seasonal variability in the streamflow response.     

IGU Commission on Health and Developement

The International Geographical Union Reports

IGU Commission on Population Geography     

A three dimensional perspective on the evolution of Archaean crust: LITHOPROBE seismic reflection images in the southwestern Superior province

15011993

Abstract

In 1990–1991 the LITHOPROBE project completed 450 km of seismic reflection profiles across the late Archaean crust of the southwestern Superior province. The results define a broad three-fold division of crust: upper crust in the Abitibi greenstone belt is non-reflective and is a 6–8 km veneer of volcanic and plutonic supracrustal rocks, whereas, in the sediment-gneiss dominated Pontiac subprovince, upper crust comprises shallow northwest-dipping turbidite sequences; mid-crust, in both the Abitibi and the Pontiac subprovinces, is interpreted as imbricate sequences of metasedimentary and metaplutonic rocks; lower crust in both subprovinces has a horizontal layer parallel strycture which may represent interleaved mafic-intermediate gneisses. The seismic signature of the northern Abitibi greenstone belt may be represented in an exposed 25 km crustal section in the Kapuskasing stuctural zone.

Preliminary tectonic models based on the seismic data are consistent with a plate-tectonic scenario involving oblique subduction and imbrication of sedimentary, plutonic and volcanic sequences. The northern Abitibi supracrustal sequences either represent an allochthon, or overlie an allochthonous underthrust metasedimentary and plutonic sequence which may be equivalent to a metasedimentary subprovince such as the Pontiac or Quetico.

Seismic velocities have yet to be defined. However, crustal thicknesses are relatively constant at 35–40 km. The thinnest crust is adjacent to the Grenville Front where Moho is very well defined.