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51.
Kimmo?T.?TolonenEmail author Klaus?P.?Brodersen Tanya?A.?Kleisborg Kerstin?Holmgren Magnus?Dahlberg Ladislav?Hamerlik Heikki?H?m?l?inen 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,47(4):531-547
We sampled living and subfossil phantom midge (Diptera: Chaoboridae) larvae from surface sediments of 21 small lakes in Southern
Sweden to examine the influence of fish and selected abiotic variables on the abundance and species composition of chaoborid
assemblages. We expected total Chaoborus abundance to be inversely correlated with fish abundance and Chaoborus species most sensitive to fish predation to be found only in fishless lakes. We aimed to use the observed relationships to
develop models to reconstruct past fish abundances from chaoborid remains and the abiotic environment. C. flavicans occurred in almost every lake, whereas subfossil C. obscuripes were found in the surface sediments of only one fishless lake. The density of living C. flavicans larvae correlated negatively with fish abundance, lake order and size. The concentration of C. flavicans subfossils was negatively associated with pH, lake size, water transparency and fish abundance. Regression models that included
lake morphometry and landscape position as additional predictors of fish abundance performed better than models that used
only Chaoborus predictors. The explained variance in fish abundance varied from 52 to 86%. Leave-one-out cross-validation indicated moderate
performance of the two best models. These models explained 51 and 56% of the observed untransformed fish density and biomass,
respectively. In addition, all Chaoborus models were unbiased in closely following the 1:1 reference line in plots of observed versus predicted values. These results
are a promising step in developing midge-based paleolimnological reconstructions of past fish abundance, and the approach
might be improved by including chironomid remains in the models. 相似文献
52.
We study viscous instability of planetary rings in terms of N-body simulations. We show that for rings composed of fairly elastic particles (e.g. as in Hatzes et al. [Hatzes, A., Bridges, F.G., Lin, D.N.C., 1988. Collisional properties of ice spheres at low impact velocities. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 231, 1091-1115]) the instability may lead to the spontaneous formation of dense ringlets in a background of lower density. In most parts of Saturn’s rings the particle collisions are probably much more dissipative, as suggested by the presence of self-gravity wakes, and classic viscous instability should be suppressed. However, our results demonstrate that the mechanism of viscous instability itself is valid. The dynamical effects of size-dependent elasticity in a system with a size distribution have never been studied before. We show that this may in principle lead to a size-selective viscous instability, small particles concentrating on ringlets against the more uniform background of large particles. 相似文献
53.
The loading effect of the Baltic Sea is immediately recognizable in the gravity record of the superconducting gravimeter T020 in Metsähovi, Finland, by simply inspecting residual gravity together with the tide gauge record at Helsinki 30 km away. The station is 10 km from the nearest bay of the Baltic Sea and 15 km from the open sea. Sea level variations in the Baltic are non-tidal and driven at short periods primarily by wind stress, at longer periods by water exchange through the Danish straits. Locally they can have a range of 2–3 m. Loading calculations show that a uniform layer of water covering the complete Baltic Sea increases the gravity in Metsähovi by 31 nm/s2 per 1 m of water, and the vertical deformation is −11 mm. The observed gravity response to the local sea level is generally less, since the variations at short periods are far from uniform areally, the same water volume just being redistributed to different places. Regression of the whole gravity record (1994-2001) on local sea level gives 50–70% of the uniform layer response, as do loading calculations using actual water distributions derived from 11 tide gauges. However, both fits are dominated by some extreme values of short duration, and parts of the gravity record with long-period variations in sea level are close to the uniform layer response. The gravity observations can be used to test corrections for other co-located geodetic observations (GPS, satellite laser ranging) which are influenced by the load effect but not sensitive enough to discriminate between models. 相似文献
54.
55.
øystein Hov Asgeir Sorteberg Norbert Schmidbauer Sverre Solberg Frode Stordal David Simpson Anne Lindskog Hans Areskoug Pedro Oyola Heikki Lättilä Niels Z. Heidam 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1997,28(1-3):173-193
Observations and model calculations of the concentration of hydrocarbonsat five Scandinavian rural sites during March–June 1993are reported.Decreasing concentrations from March to June are observedat all sites. The highest concentrations of hydrocarbons were found in air massescoming in from the southwest to southeast, indicating that long rangetransport fromcontinental Europe and the U.K. is important in pollution episodes. An episode of elevated concentrations of hydrocarbons observed at three of the sites in the middle of Marchis described and discussed in relation to the synoptic situation and thepresenceof other chemical compounds (NO2, PAN, total nitrate andozone).A Lagrangian numerical model is used to calculate the concentrations of theindividual hydrocarbons at the fivesites and comparison with observations is made.The calculated concentrations for nonmethane hydrocarbons with quite longchemicallifetimes agree well with the observations.For the sum of observed and calculated hydrocarbons the correlationcoefficientsare in the range of 0.65–0.88 for the five sitesand the ratio between calculated and measured concentrations was0.72–0.97, indicating thatthe European VOC emission inventory is quite well estimated. 相似文献
56.
Rognvald Boyd Heikki Niskavaara Esko Kontas Victor Chekushin Vladimir Pavlov Morten Often Clemens Reimann 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》1997,58(2-3)
Eight catchments, an area of 15 to 35 km2, have been studied within an ecogeochemical mapping programme in the western Kola Peninsula and contiguous parts of Finland and Norway. Three catchments, one northeast of Zapolyarniy (1) and two, 5 and 25 km south of Monchegorsk (2 and 4) show high levels of deposition of heavy metals, especially nickel (Ni) and copper (Cu), related to the metallurgical industry in these cities. Twenty-five topsoil samples, from sites evenly distributed over catchment 2, have mean contents of Ni and Cu 1 to 2 orders of magnitude higher than both C-horizon samples from the same sites and topsoil samples from catchment 4, providing strong evidence for the anthropogenic origin of the heavy metals. The same samples show geometric mean total contents for the noble metals analysed of: 1.4 μg/kg rhodium (Rh), 49.6 μg/kg platinum (Pt), 187.6 μg/kg palladium (Pd) and 9.5 μg/kg gold (Au). The pattern of concentration of the noble metals mirrors that found in published averages for ore from the Talnakh mineralizations in the Noril'sk province, though 1–2 orders of magnitude lower. This also clearly shows that the noble-metal contents of the topsoil are anthropogenic, and suggests that they emanate from the plants in Monchegorsk at an early stage in treatment of the ore, probably as a minor component of Ni-Cu rich particles. The noble-metal geochemistry of the topsoil in the other catchments also reflects the nature of the ore being processed at the plants nearby. 相似文献
57.
Comparing statistical estimates for the long-run temperature effect of doubled CO2 with those generated by climate models begs the question, is the long-run temperature effect of doubled CO2 that is estimated from the instrumental temperature record using statistical techniques consistent with the transient climate response, the equilibrium climate sensitivity, or the effective climate sensitivity. Here, we attempt to answer the question, what do statistical analyses of the observational record measure, by using these same statistical techniques to estimate the temperature effect of a doubling in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide from seventeen simulations run for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 2 (CMIP2). The results indicate that the temperature effect estimated by the statistical methodology is consistent with the transient climate response and that this consistency is relatively unaffected by sample size or the increase in radiative forcing in the sample. 相似文献
58.
59.
We evaluate the claim by Gay et al. (Clim Change 94:333–349, 2009) that “surface temperature can be better described as a trend stationary process with a one-time permanent shock” than efforts by Kaufmann et al. (Clim Change 77:249–278, 2006) to model surface temperature as a time series that contains a stochastic trend that is imparted by the time series for radiative forcing. We test this claim by comparing the in-sample forecast generated by the trend stationary model with a one-time permanent shock to the in-sample forecast generated by a cointegration/error correction model that is assumed to be stable over the 1870–2000 sample period. Results indicate that the in-sample forecast generated by the cointegration/error correction model is more accurate than the in-sample forecast generated by the trend stationary model with a one-time permanent shock. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulations of the cointegration/error correction model generate time series for temperature that are consistent with the trend-stationary-with-a-break result generated by Gay et al. (Clim Change 94:333–349, 2009), while the time series for radiative forcing cannot be modeled as trend stationary with a one-time shock. Based on these results, we argue that modeling surface temperature as a time series that shares a stochastic trend with radiative forcing offers the possibility of greater insights regarding the potential causes of climate change and efforts to slow its progression. 相似文献
60.
Jari Holopainen Samuli Helama Juha M. Kajander Johanna Korhonen Jouko Launiainen Heikki Nevanlinna Anni Reissell Veli-Pekka Salonen 《Climatic change》2009,92(1-2):213-233
Spring temperatures were reconstructed by multiproxy database for south-west Finland since 1750. Proxy records used here were ice break-up in the Aurajoki River, the Baltic Sea ice extent, the plant phenological index and the annual varve thickness in the Pyhäjärvi Lake. Records were integrated into one palaeoclimate model using time-scale dependent calibration techniques. Reconstruction was verified with statistics showing a high degree of validation between the reconstructed and observed temperatures in Turku, south-west Finland. Reconstruction demonstrates that the springs have become warmer and reveals a warming trend since 1850s. Except for the period from 1750 to around 1850, the springs have been characterized as having a larger low-frequency variability, as well as by having a smaller range of annual temperature variations. Analyses of decadal variations revealed that the coldest springtimes occurred in the 1840s and 1850s and the first decade of the 19th century. Reconstruction was compared with the available meteorological series of central England, Stockholm, St. Petersburg, Uppsala and the spring-temperature reconstruction from western Norway. The effect of global solar, volcanic, greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings were examined together with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices at local scale over the reconstructed period. Reconstructed spring-temperature changes have been related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, as indicated by the NAO (February–June). 相似文献