Hailstorm Risk Assessment in Rural New South Wales

The risk of hail damage at a particular location depends on the frequency and severity (intensity) of hailfall. Three data sets were used to determine the relative risk of hail damage in the various weather forecasting districts of the state of New South Wales, Australia. Two of the data sets were observational data and the third was a set of crop insurance data. The crop insurance data was the least spatially-biased data available for rural areas. Combined data revealed that hailstorms were most frequent in the tablelands and most severe in the north of the state where there is summer-dominant rainfall.     

A design study of an energy-dissipating cladding system

A design study has been conducted to explore the use of structural cladding panels with energy-dissipating cladding-to-frame connections for seismic-resistant design. The study identifies several issues involved in the modelling and analysis of frames with energy-dissipating cladding-to-frame connections, establishes concepts for design, and provides a preliminary assessment of the force and deformation demands that are likely to be placed on panels and connections. Non-linear dynamic analyses indicate that the clad frames perform well, based on observations about maximum interstorey drifts, maximum plastic hinge rotations in the frames, and maximum ductility demands on the cladding-to-frame connections.     

Planetary elements for 10 000 000 years

In 1950 Brouwer and van Woerkom published a secular theory of the variations of the planetary elements in analytical form. In the present paper we provide a graphical representation of this theory in the form of element plots for a time span of ten million years.     

Long-Term Evolution of Objects in the Kuiper Belt Zone—Effects of Insolation and Radiogenic Heating

The Kuiper Belt zone is unique insofar as the major heat sources of objects a few tens of kilometers in size—solar radiation on the one hand and radioactive decay on the other—have comparable power. This leads to unique evolutionary patterns, with heat waves propagating inward from the irradiated surface and outward from the radioactively heated interior. A major radioactive source that is considered in this study is ²⁶Al. The long-term evolution of several models with characteristics typical of Kuiper Belt objects is followed by means of a 1-D numerical code that solves the heat and mass balance equations on a spherically symmetric grid. The free parameters considered are radius (10-500 km), heliocentric distance (30-120 AU), and initial ²⁶Al content (0-5×10⁻⁸ by mass). The initial composition assumed is a porous mixture of ices (H₂O, CO, and CO₂) and dust. Gases released in the interior are allowed to escape to the surface. It is shown that, depending on parameters, the interior may reach quite high temperatures (up to 180 K). The models suggest that Kuiper Belt objects are likely to lose the ices of very volatile species during early evolution; ices of less volatile species are retained in a surface layer, about 1 km thick. The models indicate that the amorphous ice crystallizes in the interior, and hence some objects may also lose part of the volatiles trapped in amorphous ice. Generally, the outer layers are far less affected than the inner part, resulting in a stratified composition and altered porosity distribution. These changes in structure and composition should have significant consequences for the short-period comets, which are believed to be descendants of Kuiper Belt objects.     

From overt rejection to enthusiastic embracement: changing state discourses on Israeli emigration

This paper deploys a critical discourse analysis methodology to examine the emergence of three (sometimes overlapping) discourses on emigration in Israel. It examines the linkages between the various discursive phases and processes of (trans-) national identity formation among emigrants. It argues that emigration discourses have often been strong predictors of subsequent changes in state policies—and other programmatic initiatives—aimed at Israeli citizens abroad. By juxtaposing the discursive construction of emigration (and its linkages to nation-forming political strategies in Israel) and the effects they have had on emigrant identities the paper contributes to the emerging literature on state-diaspora relations and transnational politics.     

A numerical simulation of residual circulation in Tampa Bay. Part I: Low-frequency temporal variations

The residual (time-average) salinity and circulation in a numerical ocean model of the Tampa Bay estuary are shown to experience significant temporal variation under realistic forcing conditions. A version of the Estuarine Coastal Ocean Model developed for Tampa Bay with 70 by 100 horizontal grid points and 11 sigma levels is examined for the years 2001–2003. Model output variables are averaged over the entire time of the simulation to generate long-term residual fields. The residual axial current is found to be dominated by the buoyancy-driven baroclinic circulation with an outflow (southwestward) at the surface and to the sides of the shipping channel, and an inflow (northeastward) usually occurring subsurface within or above the shipping channel. Averages over 30 d are used to examine variations in the residual fields. During the simulation the average surface salinity near the head of Tampa Bay varies with the freshwater inflow, from 12‰ to 33%. At the bay mouth salinity varies from 30%. to 36%.. A localized measure of the baroclinic circulation in the shipping channel indicates the residual circulation can vary strongly, attaining a magnitude triple the long-term mean value. The baroclinic circulation can be disrupted, going to near zero or even reversing, when the buoyancy-driven flow is weak and the surface winds are to the northeast. Three time periods, representing different environmental conditions, are chosen to examine these results in detail. A scaling argument indicates the relative strength of buoyancy versus wind as ΔρgH²(LC _Dω²)⁻¹, where δρ is head-to-mouth density difference across the bay,g is gravitational acceleration,H is depth,L is bay length,C _D is the surface wind drag coefficient, andw is wind speed. Tampa Bay is usually in the buoyancy dominated regime. The importance of winds in the weak-buoyancy case is demonstrated in an additional simulation without wind stress.