Long-term fluctuations in volcanic activity: implications for future environmental impact

Acidic crater lakes at persistently active volcanoes act as both an index and a moderator of volcanic processes. A catastrophic drop in lake level can therefore lead to serious local environmental damage. In the early 1990s, the crater lake at Poás volcano, Costa Rica diminished, and acid aerosols erupted with devastating consequences for local health, environment and economy. The first indications of this event can be  retrospectively identified to have started from 1985, on the basis of our unique 20-year data time series, which provides evidence for the shallow intrusion of magma. New data presented in this article show similar trends and we conclude that Poás has now entered another active period with renewed intrusion. Severe environmental damage in this region is expected within the next few years if the current trend continues.     

Quaternary vegetation history of the Mississippi embayment

Nonconnah Creek, located in the loess-mantled Blufflands along the eastern wall of the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley in Tennessee displays a sedimentary sequence representing the Altonian Substage through the Woodfordian Substage of the Wisconsinan Stage. The site has a biostratigraphic record for the Altonian and Farmdalian Substages that documents warm-temperate upland oak-pine forest, prairie, and bottomland forest. At 23,000 yr B.P., white spruce and larch migrated into the Nonconnah Creek watershed and along braided-stream surfaces in the Mississippi Valley as far as southeastern Louisiana. The pollen and plant-macrofossil record from Nonconnah Creek provides the first documentation of a full-glacial locality in eastern North America for beech, yellow poplar, oak, history, black walnut, and other mesic deciduous forest taxa. During the full and late glacial, the Mississippi Valley was a barrier to the migration of pine species, while the adjacent Blufflands provided a refuge for mesic deciduous forest taxa. Regional climatic amelioration, beginning about 16,500 yr B.P., is reflected by increases in pollen percentages of cooltemperate deciduous trees at Nonconnah Creek. The demise of spruce and jack pine occurred 12,500 yr B.P. between 34° and 37° N in eastern North America in response to postglacial warming.     

Evaluating Errors in a Digital Vegetation Map with Forest Inventory Data and Accuracy Assessment Using Fuzzy Sets

In large-area mapping projects, existing reference data, often collected for a different purpose, are increasingly being used for map accuracy assessment. Multi-attribute digital vegetation maps have been developed for all National Forest lands in California (8.1 million ha). We developed decision rules that could be applied to quantitative Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot data in order to score the fuzzy membership of plot locations in all possible map classes. We compare the accuracy of the vegetation map attributes estimated using this method to accuracy estimated from fuzzy class membership scores assigned by experts (inventory crews) during field work. Accuracy of the vegetation life form attribute was estimated to be higher when expert label assignments were used as reference data (76–87%), instead of FIA plot data (62–79%). This suggests that automated decision rules applied to detailed data from FIA plots, which have smaller area than map polygons, may systematically underestimate map accuracy. However, assignment of the actual map labels to FIA plot locations by inventory crews appears to be a robust method for using the FIA data for accuracy assessment.     

Late-Holocene Formation of Lake Michigan Beach Ridges Correlated with a 70-yr Oscillation in Global Climate

A radiocarbon-dated series of 75 beach ridges, formed at regular intervals averaging 72 yr over the past 5400 yr, provides further support for the existence of a 70-yr oscillation in Northern Hemisphere climate, postulated recently from instrument data representing less than two cycles of this climate oscillation. Results from this study lend support to the interpretation that internal variations in the ocean–atmosphere system are an important factor in climate fluctuations on a decadal–centennial time scale. A temperature oscillation with a period of about 70 yr has been a previously unrecognized but fundamental part of the global climate system since at least the middle Holocene.