Sensitivities of species compositions of the mixed forest in eastern Eurasian continent to climate change

Sensitivities of species compositions of the broadleaf–conifer mixed forest in eastern Eurasian continent to climate change were evaluated with three forest gap models, namely KOPIDE, NEWCOP, and ForClim. Testing sites are located on Changbai Mountain, the middle of the distribution range for the mixed forest. Six climate change scenarios characterizing increase in temperature and increase/decrease in precipitation were used to test the sensitivities of species composition to climate change. Simulations suggest that the mixed forest in temperate Monsoon Asia will face changes in species composition should climate change be almost certain. At the minimum level, the order of dominant species is going to change due to species competition, resulting in the increase in the proportion of broadleaved tree species in the forest. If air temperature increases and precipitation decreases, Pinus koraiensis is going to disappear from the forest and the mixed forest will become hardwood forest. This experiment supports some earlier predictions under other climate change scenarios.     

Dynamical Evolution of High Velocity Clouds

HI observations of high-velocity clouds(HVCs) indicate that they are interacting with their ambientmedium. The question on the dynamical and thermal stabilization of a cold dense neutral cloud in a hot, thin, and magnetized ambient halo plasma is investigated by plasma-neutral gas simulations.The simulations show the formation of a comet-likehead-tail structurecombined with a magnetic barrier whichexerts a stabilizing pressure on the cloud and hindershot plasma from diffusing into the cloud.     

Water and carbon fluxes of European ecosystems: an evaluation of the ecohydrological model RHESSys

This study investigated whether the regional hydro-ecological simulation system RHESSys is a suitable tool for long-term global change impact studies under selected climatic conditions of Europe, taking advantage of the strongly varying climate along elevational gradients in mountain regions. We performed a validation of RHESSys using daily, monthly and yearly data on (1) streamflow and snow cover in five Alpine catchments and (2) water and carbon fluxes at 15 EUROFLUX sites. The simulation results generally agreed well with observations. RHESSys reasonably reproduced daily and monthly streamflow, as well as the seasonal cycle and amplitude of typical Alpine discharge regimes. Furthermore, RHESSys was capable of capturing the key features of the carbon cycle of various forested ecosystems, including significant differences between managed and close-to-natural forests, and more subtle distinctions between coniferous and deciduous systems. Our analyses confirmed that RHESSys is a suitable tool for studying global change impacts on mountain hydrology. Regarding the simulation of the carbon cycle, this investigation detected some data and model limitations that are discussed in detail. Finally, suggestions for model improvements are made, mainly concerning the formulations of decomposition and respiration rates in biogeochemical models. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation and evaluation of real-time precipitable water vapor from GLONASS and GPS

The revitalized Russian GLONASS system provides new potential for real-time retrieval of zenith tropospheric delays (ZTD) and precipitable water vapor (PWV) in order to support time-critical meteorological applications such as nowcasting or severe weather event monitoring. In this study, we develop a method of real-time ZTD/PWV retrieval based on GLONASS and/or GPS observations. The performance of ZTD and PWV derived from GLONASS data using real-time precise point positioning (PPP) technique is carefully investigated and evaluated. The potential of combining GLONASS and GPS data for ZTD/PWV retrieving is assessed as well. The GLONASS and GPS observations of about half a year for 80 globally distributed stations from the IGS (International GNSS Service) network are processed. The results show that the real-time GLONASS ZTD series agree quite well with the GPS ZTD series in general: the RMS of ZTD differences is about 8 mm (about 1.2 mm in PWV). Furthermore, for an inter-technique validation, the real-time ZTD estimated from GLONASS-only, GPS-only, and the GPS/GLONASS combined solutions are compared with those derived from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) at colocated GNSS/VLBI stations. The comparison shows that GLONASS can contribute to real-time meteorological applications, with almost the same accuracy as GPS. More accurate and reliable water vapor values, about 1.5–2.3 mm in PWV, can be achieved when GLONASS observations are combined with the GPS ones in the real-time PPP data processing. The comparison with radiosonde data further confirms the performance of GLONASS-derived real-time PWV and the benefit of adding GLONASS to stand-alone GPS processing.     

The last Eurasian ice sheets – a chronological database and time‐slice reconstruction,DATED‐1

We present a new time‐slice reconstruction of the Eurasian ice sheets (British–Irish, Svalbard–Barents–Kara Seas and Scandinavian) documenting the spatial evolution of these interconnected ice sheets every 1000 years from 25 to 10 ka, and at four selected time periods back to 40 ka. The time‐slice maps of ice‐sheet extent are based on a new Geographical Information System (GIS) database, where we have collected published numerical dates constraining the timing of ice‐sheet advance and retreat, and additionally geomorphological and geological evidence contained within the existing literature. We integrate all uncertainty estimates into three ice‐margin lines for each time‐slice; a most‐credible line, derived from our assessment of all available evidence, with bounding maximum and minimum limits allowed by existing data. This approach was motivated by the demands of glaciological, isostatic and climate modelling and to clearly display limitations in knowledge. The timing of advance and retreat were both remarkably spatially variable across the ice‐sheet area. According to our compilation the westernmost limit along the British–Irish and Norwegian continental shelf was reached up to 7000 years earlier (at c. 27–26 ka) than the eastern limit on the Russian Plain (at c. 20–19 ka). The Eurasian ice sheet complex as a whole attained its maximum extent (5.5 Mkm²) and volume (~24 m Sea Level Equivalent) at c. 21 ka. Our continental‐scale approach highlights instances of conflicting evidence and gaps in the ice‐sheet chronology where uncertainties remain large and should be a focus for future research. Largest uncertainties coincide with locations presently below sea level and where contradicting evidence exists. This first version of the database and time‐slices (DATED‐1) has a census date of 1 January 2013 and both are available to download via the Bjerknes Climate Data Centre and PANGAEA ( www.bcdc.no ; http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.848117 ).     

A model for underpressure development in a glacial valley,an example from Adventdalen,Svalbard

The underpressure observed in the glacial valley Adventdalen at Svalbard is studied numerically with a basin model and analytically with a compartment model. The pressure equation used in the basin model, which accounts for underpressure generation, is derived from mass conservation of pore fluid and solid, in addition to constitutive equations. The compartment model is derived as a similar pressure equation, which is based on a simplified representation of the basin geometry. It is used to derive analytical expressions for the underpressure (overpressure) from a series of unloading (loading) intervals. The compartment model gives a characteristic time for underpressure generation of each interval, which tells when the pressure state is transient or stationary. The transient pressure is linear in time for short‐time spans compared to the characteristic time, and then it is proportional to the weight removed from the surface. We compare different contributions to the underpressure generation and find that porosity rebound from unloading is more important than the decompression of the pore fluid during unloading and the thermal contraction of the pore fluid during cooling of the subsurface. Our modelling shows that the unloading from the last deglaciation can explain the present day underpressure. The basin model simulates the subsurface pressure resulting from erosion and unloading in addition to the fluid flow driven by the topography. Basin modelling indicates that the mountains surrounding the valley are more important for the topographic‐driven flow in the aquifer than the recharging in the neighbour valley. The compartment model turns out to be useful to estimate the orders of magnitude for system properties like seal and aquifer permeabilities and decompaction coefficients, despite its geometric simplicity. We estimate that the DeGeerdalen aquifer cannot have a permeability that is higher than 1 · 10^?18 m², as otherwise, the fluid flow in the aquifer becomes dominated by topographic‐driven flow. The upper value for the seal permeability is estimated to be 1 · 10^?20 m², as higher values preclude the generation and preservation of underpressure. The porosity rebound is estimated to be <0.1% during the last deglaciation using a decompaction coefficient α_r = 1 · 10^?9 Pa^?1.