High resolution regional climate model simulations for Germany: Part II—projected climate changes

The projected climate change signals of a five-member high resolution ensemble, based on two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5 and CCCma3) and two regional climate models (RCMs: CLM and WRF) are analysed in this paper (Part II of a two part paper). In Part I the performance of the models for the control period are presented. The RCMs use a two nest procedure over Europe and Germany with a final spatial resolution of 7 km to downscale the GCM simulations for the present (1971–2000) and future A1B scenario (2021–2050) time periods. The ensemble was extended by earlier simulations with the RCM REMO (driven by ECHAM5, two realisations) at a slightly coarser resolution. The climate change signals are evaluated and tested for significance for mean values and the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation, as well as for the intensity distribution of precipitation and the numbers of dry days and dry periods. All GCMs project a significant warming over Europe on seasonal and annual scales and the projected warming of the GCMs is retained in both nests of the RCMs, however, with added small variations. The mean warming over Germany of all ensemble members for the fine nest is in the range of 0.8 and 1.3 K with an average of 1.1 K. For mean annual precipitation the climate change signal varies in the range of ?2 to 9 % over Germany within the ensemble. Changes in the number of wet days are projected in the range of ±4 % on the annual scale for the future time period. For the probability distribution of precipitation intensity, a decrease of lower intensities and an increase of moderate and higher intensities is projected by most ensemble members. For the mean values, the results indicate that the projected temperature change signal is caused mainly by the GCM and its initial condition (realisation), with little impact from the RCM. For precipitation, in addition, the RCM affects the climate change signal significantly.     

Biomonitoring of Atmospheric Heavy Metal Deposition by Mosses in the Vicinity of Industrial Sites

At four industrial regions, heavy metal concentrations and calculated depositions were investigated by sampling and analysing mosses. In each region, a special spatial pattern of heavy metal concentrations was detected, reflecting the industrial processes. Metals most likely originating from the industrial sites showed an exponential decrease of concentrations and depositions with increasing distance from the pollution source. The exponential deposition pattern was in some cases modified by a series of natural factors, like the main direction of winds or orographic conditions. The distance at which deposition dropped to background values was up to 20 km. Beside the fact that the moss-metho is a useful tool for deposition measurement in the vicinity of stationary sources, some improvements for using this method are discussed, highlighting factors such as a proper calculation of deposition from concentrations, or the better knowledge of correlations between heavy metal concentrations in mosses and effects on human health.     

Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.     

Developing country perspectives on ‘mitigation actions’, ‘NAMAs’, and ‘LCDS’

The MAPS programme, which seeks to deepen mitigation ambition in developing countries, is engaged in exploring the concepts of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) from a developing country perspective. Here, climate mitigation practitioners in six developing countries were surveyed for their understanding of these concepts (anonymous, personal communications with climate mitigation practitioners in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, and South Africa). It is found that there is much scope for clarity and conceptual elaboration in this policy space. NAMAs are largely interpreted as mitigation activities packaged for submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) registry, but are not held to constitute the full set of mitigation activity in a developing country. New terminology may be needed to describe this broader set. A tighter interpretation of LCDS to distinguish between a strategic or coordinating policy action may be useful. Other themes arising include the way ‘national appropriateness’ is reflected in the concepts, and the role of international policy in deepening mitigation action in developing countries.     

Current approaches to MRV in South Africa: a scoping study

It is shown that there are MRV-related activities underway in South Africa, particularly focusing on measuring electricity consumption and monitoring GHG emissions. Yet currently many of these activities happen in parallel systems within multi-polar governance structures. A bottom-up perspective of MRV in South Africa, informed by interviews, workshops, desktop research, and stakeholder consultations, is provided and the systems, data, methodologies, and the institutional environment relevant to a South African MRV system are examined. The development of the local monitoring and evaluation system, and its relevance within the international MRV context, is also discussed. Some recommendations are made: most importantly, there is a need for a coherent approach to be developed, one that is coordinated by government and built on existing MRV systems.     

Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011–2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

     

On the consistency of the current conventional EOP series and the celestial and terrestrial reference frames

Precise transformation between the celestial reference frames (CRF) and terrestrial reference frames (TRF) is needed for many purposes in Earth and space sciences. According to the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) recommendations, the accuracy of positions and stability of reference frames should reach 1 mm and 0.1 mm year\(^{-1}\), and thus, the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) should be estimated with similar accuracy. Different realizations of TRFs, based on the combination of solutions from four different space geodetic techniques, and CRFs, based on a single technique only (VLBI, Very Long Baseline Interferometry), might cause a slow degradation of the consistency among EOP, CRFs, and TRFs (e.g., because of differences in geometry, orientation and scale) and a misalignment of the current conventional EOP series, IERS 08 C04. We empirically assess the consistency among the conventional reference frames and EOP by analyzing the record of VLBI sessions since 1990 with varied settings to reflect the impact of changing frames or other processing strategies on the EOP estimates. Our tests show that the EOP estimates are insensitive to CRF changes, but sensitive to TRF variations and unmodeled geophysical signals at the GGOS level. The differences between the conventional IERS 08 C04 and other EOP series computed with distinct TRF settings exhibit biases and even non-negligible trends in the cases where no differential rotations should appear, e.g., a drift of about 20 \(\upmu \)as year\(^{-1 }\)in \(y_{\mathrm{pol }}\) when the VLBI-only frame VTRF2008 is used. Likewise, different strategies on station position modeling originate scatters larger than 150 \(\upmu \)as in the terrestrial pole coordinates.     

A Global Terrestrial Reference Frame from simulated VLBI and SLR data in view of GGOS

In this study, we assess the impact of two combination strategies, namely local ties (LT) and global ties (GT), on the datum realization of Global Terrestrial Reference Frames in view of the Global Geodetic Observing System requiring 1 mm-accuracy. Simulated Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) data over a 7 year time span was used. The LT results show that the geodetic datum can be best transferred if the precision of the LT is at least 1 mm. Investigating different numbers of LT, the lack of co-located sites on the southern hemisphere is evidenced by differences of 9 mm in translation and rotation compared to the solution using all available LT. For the GT, the combination applying all Earth rotation parameters (ERP), such as pole coordinates and UT1-UTC, indicates that the rotation around the Z axis cannot be adequately transferred from VLBI to SLR within the combination. Applying exclusively the pole coordinates as GT, we show that the datum can be transferred with mm-accuracy within the combination. Furthermore, adding artificial stations in Tahiti and Nigeria to the current VLBI network results in an improvement in station positions by 13 and 12%, respectively, and in ERP by 17 and 11%, respectively. Extending to every day VLBI observations leads to 65% better ERP estimates compared to usual twice-weekly VLBI observations.     

Universal time from VLBI single-baseline observations during CONT08

The IVS Intensive sessions are single-baseline, 1-h VLBI sessions carried out everyday in order to determine Universal Time (UT1). We investigate different possibilities to improve the results of such sessions. We do this investigation by extracting 2-h single-baseline sessions from the CONT08 data set. These are analysed like normal Intensives, and the results are compared to the results of the analysis of the full CONT08 data set. We find that tropospheric asymmetry is the major error source for the single-baseline sessions. It is possible to improve the accuracy of the estimated UT1 either by using accurate a priori tropospheric gradients or by estimating gradients in the data analysis.