DOWNSCALING FORECAST OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER GUANGXI BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK MODEL

Variables fields such as enstrophy, meridional-wind and zonal-wind variables are derived from monthly 500 hPa geopotential height anomalous fields. In this work, we select original predictors from monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields and their variables in June of 1958 - 2001, and determine comprehensive predictors by conducting empirical orthogonal function (EOF) respectively with the original predictors. A downscaling forecast model based on the back propagation (BP) neural network is built by use of the comprehensive predictors to predict the monthly precipitation in June over Guangxi with the monthly dynamic extended range forecast products. For comparison, we also build another BP neural network model with the same predictands by using the former comprehensive predictors selected from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields in May to December of 1957 - 2000 and January to April of 1958 - 2001. The two models are tested and results show that the precision of superposition of the downscaling model is better than that of the one based on former comprehensive predictors, but the prediction accuracy of the downscaling model depends on the output of monthly dynamic extended range forecast.     

Exploring the effects of urban and agricultural land use on surface water chemistry,across a regional watershed,using multivariate statistics

In this paper, the influence of anthropogenic activity on surface water chemistry is investigated. Base flow samples from dominant land use streams in the Muskegon River Watershed, Michigan, USA, were analyzed for nutrients, major ions, and trace elements. Principal component and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to investigate the processes controlling the effects of land use on the biogeochemistry of streams in this Watershed. Biogeochemical fingerprints of land use were developed based on the results of the cluster analysis. Spider diagrams which referenced the natural environment aided the identification of the individual contributions of urban and agricultural land uses to surface water chemistry. The biogeochemical fingerprints quantified support previous findings (Urb: Na, K, Cl/Ag: Ca, Mg) and produced new insights into the effects of land use on the behavior of nutrients (Ag: N and Urb: N, P) and trace elements (Urb: V, Cr, Co, Cu, Se, Rb, Mo, Sr, Cd, Pb and Ba/Ag: U and As). The higher correlations of urban than agricultural land uses with nutrients, specifically P, were not expected and may reflect the effects of fertilization and wastewater or the season the samples were taken. More study in different geologic and urban settings is needed to help refine these fingerprints, but it is becoming apparent that despite obscuring factors, land use produces consistent, quantifiable associations between biogeochemical analytes.     

滇西地区小地震群特征

根据滇西地区（23°．8－28°N;97°．0－101°．5E）1966年1月－1996年7月89个ML≤4．7的小地震震群资料分别总结出滇西地区H,K,U,η,b,△M参数的判别指标和地区特征。着重讨论了小地震震群与云南及邻区中强震关系,以及综合利用上述参数尝试预报未来中强震。     

四湖排水系统运行规划优化模型

分析了四湖排水系统的运行特点,应用大系统理论对系统进行了递阶分析并确定了该系统运行规划的NLP/DP/LP优化模型结构。在确定系统运行规则的基础上,分层建立了系统运行规划优化模型。     

High-resolution ion-microprobe measurement of lead isotopes: Variations within single zircons from Lac Seul,northwestern Ontario

Selected-area measurements of lead-isotope ratios in zircons have been made at high mass resolution using a modified A.E.I. IM20 ion-microprobe. At a working resolution of 3200 it is shown that the important interfering molecular peaks generated from the zircon matrix may be separated from atomic lead peaks. Corrections for overlapping peaks, which are necessary in measurements of lead isotopes at low mass resolution, are then only required for ²⁰⁸Pb.Measurements on N.B.S. standards show no isotope discrimination within counting statistics. Determination of ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb on 29 single zircon grains from a tonalite gneiss and a granite from Lac Seul, northwestern Ontario, give very variable ratios with mean values close to those of bulk separates. Peaks in the distribution of 207/206 ratios obtained from the tonalite gneiss may be interpreted as evidence for two stages of lead loss. High 207/206 ratios are shown to be significant for at least two zircons and probably record a minimum age of formation of 3.3 ± 0.1 b.y. for the gneiss.     

The specification of wide-band recorders

Working models for signal, path and earth-noise characteristics are developed which collectively define the input expected to a seismic recorder. These are used to elucidate the problems of frequency and dynamic ranges of wide-band recorders designed to record the whole body-wave signal received above earth noise. An optimised recorder characteristic is derived which minimises dynamic range.     

Formal subdivision of the Holocene Series/Epoch: a Discussion Paper by a Working Group of INTIMATE (Integration of ice‐core,marine and terrestrial records) and the Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy (International Commission on Stratigraphy)

This discussion paper, by a Working Group of INTIMATE (Integration of ice‐core, marine and terrestrial records) and the Subcommision on Quaternary Stratigraphy (SQS) of the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS), considers the prospects for a formal subdivision of the Holocene Series/Epoch. Although previous attempts to subdivide the Holocene have proved inconclusive, recent developments in Quaternary stratigraphy, notably the definition of the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary and the emergence of formal subdivisions of the Pleistocene Series/Epoch, mean that it may be timely to revisit this matter. The Quaternary literature reveals a widespread but variable informal usage of a tripartite division of the Holocene (‘early’, ‘middle’ or ‘mid’, and ‘late’), and we argue that this de facto subdivision should now be formalized to ensure consistency in stratigraphic terminology. We propose an Early–Middle Holocene Boundary at 8200 a BP and a Middle–Late Holocene Boundary at 4200 a BP, each of which is linked to a Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP). Should the proposal find a broad measure of support from the Quaternary community, a submission will be made to the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), via the SQS and the ICS, for formal ratification of this subdivision of the Holocene Series/Epoch. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calibrating a glaciological model of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to present-day using field observations of relative sea level and ice extent

We constrain a three-dimensional thermomechanical model of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP) to the present-day using, primarily, observations of relative sea level (RSL) as well as field data on past ice extent. Our new model (Huy2) fits a majority of the observations and is characterised by a number of key features: (i) the ice sheet had an excess volume (relative to present) of 4.1 m ice-equivalent sea level at the LGM, which increased to reach a maximum value of 4.6 m at 16.5 ka BP; (ii) retreat from the continental shelf was not continuous around the entire margin, as there was a Younger Dryas readvance in some areas. The final episode of marine retreat was rapid and relatively late (c. 12 ka BP), leaving the ice sheet land based by 10 ka BP; (iii) in response to the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) the ice margin retreated behind its present-day position by up to 80 km in the southwest, 20 km in the south and 80 km in a small area of the northeast. As a result of this retreat the modelled ice sheet reaches a minimum extent between 5 and 4 ka BP, which corresponds to a deficit volume (relative to present) of 0.17 m ice-equivalent sea level. Our results suggest that remaining discrepancies between the model and the observations are likely associated with non-Greenland ice load, differences between modelled and observed present-day ice elevation around the margin, lateral variations in Earth structure and/or the pattern of ice margin retreat.