Norwegian marine geodetic projects

The hitherto promising finds of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf have increased the general activity in this area considerably. Consequently, the need for better charts and more precise navigational systems have become more pertinent. During the past few years a number of marine geodetic projects have either been planned or embarked upon by various organizations within both the public and private sectors. This article gives a brief review of the Norwegian projects which have special relevance to marine geodesy; this includes the following areas: recommendations, requirements, precision navigation, satellite positioning, reference systems, boundary problems, bathymetry, geological mapping, marine geoid determination, and data base developments. The reference list will give the reader more detailed sources of information.     

Caveats on tomographic images

Geological and geodynamic models of the mantle often rely on joint interpretations of published seismic tomography images and petrological/geochemical data. This approach tends to neglect the fundamental limitations of, and uncertainties in, seismic tomography results. These limitations and uncertainties involve theory, correcting for the crust, the lack of rays throughout much of the mantle, the difficulty in obtaining the true strength of anomalies, choice of what background model to subtract to reveal anomalies, and what cross‐sections to select for publication. The aim of this review is to provide a relatively non‐technical summary of the most important of these problems, collected together in a single paper, and presented in a form accessible to non‐seismologists. Appreciation of these issues is essential if final geodynamic models are to be robust, and required by the scientific observations.     

Pulse profile stability of the Crab pulsar

We present an X-ray timing analysis of the Crab pulsar, PSR B0531+21, using archival RXTE data. We have investigated the stability of the Crab pulse profile, in soft (2-20 keV) and hard (30-100 keV) X-ray energies, over the last decade of RXTE operation. The analysis includes measurement of the separation between the two pulse peaks and the intensity and widths of the two peaks. We did not find any significant time dependency in the pulse shape. The two peaks have been stable in phase, intensity and width f...     

Influence from Surrounding Land on the Turbulence Measurements Above a Lake

Turbulence measurements taken at a Swedish lake are analyzed. Although the measurements took place over a relatively large lake with several km of undisturbed fetch, the turbulence structure was found to be highly influenced by the surrounding land during daytime. Variance spectra of both horizontal velocity and scalars during both unstable and stable stratification displayed a low frequency peak. The energy at lower frequencies showed a daily variation, increasing in the morning and decreasing in the afternoon. This behaviour is explained by spectral lag, where the low frequency energy due to large eddies that originate from the convective boundary layer above the surrounding land. When the air is advected over the lake the small eddies rapidly equilibrate with the new surface forcing. However, the large eddies remain for an appreciable distance and influence the turbulence in the developing lake boundary layer. The variances of the horizontal velocity and scalars are increased by these large eddies, while the turbulent fluxes are mainly unaffected. The drag coefficient, Stanton number and Dalton number used to parametrize the momentum flux, heat flux and latent heat flux respectively all compare well with current parametrizations developed for open sea conditions. The diurnal cycle of the partial pressure of methane, $p\mathrm{CH}_{4}$ , observed at this site is closely related to the diurnal cycle of the lake-air methane flux. An idealized two-dimensional model simulation of the boundary layer at a lake site indicates that the strong response of $p\mathrm{CH}_{4}$ to the surface methane flux is due to the shallow internal boundary layer that develops above the lake, allowing methane to accumulate in a relatively small volume.     

Innovating the IPCC review process—the potential of young talent

There is significant potential in young talent for enhancing the credibility of the scientific assessments such as the IPCC’s by contributing to quality assurance and quality control. In this essay, we reflect on an experiment that was done by the Dutch government as part of its government review of a contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). In an effort to review the entire Working Group II contribution to the AR5 within the official review period for the Second Order Draft (SOD), the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency turned to PhD students. This article shows that a systematic review focusing on transparency and errors of a large scientific assessment document using young talented scientists can be successful if certain conditions are met. The reviewers need to have intrinsic motivation to conduct the review. There needs to be a communication plan that fosters engagement and a clear methodology to guide the reviewers through their task. Based on this experiment in review, we reflect on the wider potential for openness and crowdsourcing in scientific assessment processes such as the IPCC’s.     

Weibull-k Revisited: “Tall” Profiles and Height Variation of Wind Statistics

The Weibull distribution is commonly used to describe climatological wind-speed distributions in the atmospheric boundary layer. While vertical profiles of mean wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer have received significant attention, the variation of the shape of the wind distribution with height is less understood. Previously we derived a probabilistic model based on similarity theory for calculating the effects of stability and planetary boundary-layer depth upon long-term mean wind profiles. However, some applications (e.g. wind energy estimation) require the Weibull shape parameter (k), as well as mean wind speed. Towards the aim of improving predictions of the Weibull- \(k\) profile, we develop expressions for the profile of long-term variance of wind speed, including a method extending our probabilistic wind-profile theory; together these two profiles lead to a profile of Weibull-shape parameter. Further, an alternate model for the vertical profile of Weibull shape parameter is made, improving upon a basis set forth by Wieringa (Boundary-Layer Meteorol, 1989, Vol. 47, 85–110), and connecting with a newly-corrected corollary of the perturbed geostrophic-drag theory of Troen and Petersen (European Wind Atlas, 1989, Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde). Comparing the models for Weibull-k profiles, a new interpretation and explanation is given for the vertical variation of the shape of wind-speed distributions. Results of the modelling are shown for a number of sites, with a discussion of the models’ efficacy and applicability. The latter includes a comparative evaluation of Wieringa-type empirical models and perturbed-geostrophic forms with regard to surface-layer behaviour, as well as for heights where climatological wind-speed variability is not dominated by surface effects.     

Early Last Interglacial Greenland Ice Sheet melting and a sustained period of meridional overturning weakening: a model analysis of the uncertainties

Proxy-data suggest that the Last Interglacial (LIG; ~130–116 ka BP) climate was characterized by higher temperatures, a partially melted Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and a changed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Notwithstanding the uncertainties in LIG palaeoclimatic reconstructions, this setting potentially provides an opportunity to evaluate the relation between GIS melt and the AMOC as simulated by climate models. However, first we need to assess the extent to which a causal relation between early LIG GIS melt and the weakened AMOC is plausible. With a series of transient LIG climate simulations with the LOVECLIM earth system model, we quantify the importance of the major known uncertainties involved in early LIG GIS melt scenarios. Based on this we construct a specific scenario that is within the parameter space of uncertainties and show that it is physically consistent that early LIG GIS melting kept the AMOC weakened. Notwithstanding, this scenario is at the extreme end of the parameter space. Assuming that proxy-based reconstructions of early LIG AMOC weakening offer a realistic representation of its past state, this indicates that either (1) the AMOC weakening was caused by other forcings than early LIG GIS melt or (2) the early LIG AMOC was less stable than indicated by our simulations and a small amount of GIS melt was sufficient to keep the AMOC in the weak state of a bi-stable regime. We argue that more intensive research is required because of the high potential of the early LIG to evaluate model performance in relation to the AMOC response to GIS melt.     

Comment on “Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis” by Xiaolan L. Wang,Y. Feng,G. P. Compo,V. R. Swail,F. W. Zwiers,R. J. Allan,and P. D. Sardeshmukh,Climate Dynamics, 2012

The main subject of this article is to comment on the issue of storminess trends derived from the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) and from observations in the North Atlantic region written about in Wang et al. (Clim Dyn 40(11–12):2775–2800, 2012). The statement that the 20CR estimates would be consistent with storminess derived from pressure-based proxies does not hold for the time prior to 1950.     

Shear Band Formation in Numerical Simulations Applying a Continuum Damage Rheology Model

In seismically active regions, faults nucleate, propagate, and form networks that evolve over time. To simulate crustal faulting processes, including the evolution of fault-zone properties, a rheological model must incorporate concepts such as damage rheology that describe the various stages of the seismic cycle (strain localization, subcritical crack growth and macroscopic failure) while accounting for material degradation and healing and off-fault deformation. Here we study the fundamental patterns of strain-localisation within the framework of a continuum damage rheology by performing a shear band analysis (linear instability analysis) and comparing predictions of shear band orientations with numerical results of the nonlinear problem. We find (analytically and numerically) that the angle between the shear band and the less compressive (transverse) direction is between 47° in compression tests with a strain ratio of 0.25 (highly confined compression test), and 60° for a strain ratio higher than 1.4 (axial compression and transverse extension). In addition we find that shear bands exhibit local dilation (I ₁ > 0) in a wide range of strain ratios excluding only simulations with highly confined compression (which yield compacting shear bands or non-localized deformation). Finally, we discuss the applicability of the damage model for simulating deformation in the seismogenic, brittle crust.