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271.
<正>1.Introduction Spectacular advances have been made in the atmospheric sciences on a global level during a period of one hundred years or more,which is arguably most evident through"the quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction"(Bauer et  相似文献   
272.
Abstract— We have measured excess Ir and depletion of 14C, two independent indicators of cosmic material, in peat cores from the central Tunguska impact site. Both Ir and 14C show pronounced anomalies in the same stratigraphical depth interval. We have estimated an integral deposition of nonradioactive cosmogenic C of 6.8 ± 1.0 mg C cm?2, and an integrated Ir deposition of 5.9 ± 1.2 pg Ir cm?2. The very high C/Ir ratio and a deduced δ13C value of +55 ± 10% relative to V Pee Dee Belemnite (VPDB) of the impactor material found in this study points towards a cometary type impactor, rather than a chondritic or achondritic asteroidal type impactor.  相似文献   
273.
Abstract. Four individual dugongs Dugong dugong , MÜLLER, 1776 were tracked with buoyant, tethered. conventional and satellite radio transmitters. The dugongs three adult females and one immature male were encircled with a net at a catch site near Haruku Island, East Indonesia, and tracked for between 41 and 285 days. The animals showed individualistic patterns of movement, moving between 2 and 3 core areas, travelling between 17 and 65 km from the site of capture. One adult female spent most of the time at two distinct inshore seagrass beds separated by about 17 km; she made five trips between the two sites. Two other females made separate trips to two distinct sites, one of them returning to the catch site at Haruku Island. The immature male journeyed between two areas about 65 km apart. completing the journey in four days. The patterns of movement confirmed a practice of regular recropping of restricted grazing swards by small, loose feeding assemblages rather than fixed herds with a strong social bond. Mean home ranges covered 4.1 km2 50% harmonic mean and 43.4 km2 95% harmonic mean.  相似文献   
274.
A length-based model for calculating growth and mortality of juvenile winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) populations has been developed. This model is based on work by Sullivan et al. (1990) and incorporates the von Bertalanffy growth equation, including stochasticity in growth, and a mortality rate that decreases exponentially with size. The length-based model was fit to observed size-frequency distributions, and model likelihood profiles were generated to produce 95% confidence intervals about parameter estimates. We analyzed size-frequency distributions of 3 to 15 cm juvenile winter flounder, collected with a 1-m beam trawl, at monthly intervals from June to October during 1993 and 1994. Growth rates were higher at a contaminated site, New Haven Harbor, than at a clean site, the Connecticut River estuary, however, the parameter estimates had overlapping 95% confidence intervals. Mortality rates were similar at the two sites.  相似文献   
275.
Average concentrations of incompatible elements and isotopes of radiogenic Sr, Nd and Pb in a 350 km long belt of Central European volcanics (CECV) resemble those in OIB in general and in OIB from the N Atlantic in particular. This similarity allows to infer comparable sources for CECV and OIB which might have been located in the lower mantle according to seismic tomography and chemistry, with the latter unlike a MORB source. The incompatible element contribution of lower mantle origin can be modelled from primitive mantle minus continental crust and upper mantle inventories. Alkali basaltic magmas from the modelled source are close in composition to CECV and OIB. The continental crust contains almost half of the silicate Earth's content of Rb, K, Pb, Ba, Th and U, which were mobilized to a major extent through dehydration of subducted ocean crust. Related losses from the lower mantle had to be replaced by deep subductions of oceanic lithosphere recognized from their isotopic imprint. From a balance based on Nd isotopes it can be concluded that average CECV contains 60% matter from residual primitive mantle and 40% from deeply subducted lithosphere (including some young upper mantle materials). Plume products from separate CECV regions developed, within 45 Ma, from rather depleted to more primitive isotopic signatures. Four periods of volcanism from Eocene to late Quaternary time are explained as four pulses of an almost stationary ultrafast plume uprise as modelled by Larsen and Yuen (1997). Magma production has increased from the first to the third pulse with the peak during Miocene time in the Vogelsberg region. The final pulse produced the Quaternary Eifel volcanoes. Tectonism from the Alpine orogen has probably triggered the synchronous volcanism of CECV, Massif Central etc. The European lithospheric plate has moved under the control of the opening Atlantic almost in an eastern direction with a velocity of 1 cm per year and has shifted extinct volcanoes off their source channels. Received: 10 July 1998 / Accepted: 10 February 1999  相似文献   
276.
277.
The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010–2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.  相似文献   
278.
The Holocene paleoclimate of the Caucasus region is rather complex and not yet well understood: while existing studies are mainly based on pollen records from high-altitude and humid lowland regions, no records are available from the semi-humid to semi-arid south-eastern Caucasian lowlands. Therefore, this study investigated compound-specific δ2H and δ13C isotopes of leaf wax biomarkers from Holocene floodplain soils in eastern Georgia. Our results show that the leaf wax δ2H signal from the paleosols mostly reflects changes in the moisture source and its isotopic composition. Depleted δ2H values before ~8 cal ka bp change towards enriched values after ~5 cal ka bp and become again depleted after ~1.6 cal ka bp. This trend could be caused by Holocene changes of the isotopic compositions of the Black and eastern Mediterranean Sea, and/or by varying contribution of both moisture sources linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The leaf wax δ13C signal from the paleosols directly indicates varying local water availability and drought stress. Depleted δ13C values before ~8 and after ~5 cal ka bp indicate wetter local conditions with higher water availability, whereas more enriched values during the middle Holocene (~8 until at least 5 cal ka bp ) indicate drier conditions with increased drought stress.  相似文献   
279.
When applying an explicit integration algorithm in e.g. soil plasticity, the predicted stress point at the end of an elastoplastic increment of loading might not be situated on the updated current yield surface. This so-called yield surface drift could generally be held under control by using small integration steps. Another possibility, when circumstances might demand larger steps, is to adopt a drift correction method. In this paper, a drift correction method for mixed control in soil plasticity, under drained as well as undrained conditions, is proposed. By simulating triaxial tests in a Constitutive Driver, the capability and efficiency of this correction method, under different choices of implementation, have been analysed. It was concluded that the proposed drift correction method, for quite marginal additional computational cost, was able to correct successfully for yield surface drift giving results in close agreement to those obtained with a very large number of integration steps. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
280.
In hydrological modelling of catchments, wherein streams are groundwater-fed, an accurate representation of groundwater processes and their interaction with surface water is crucial. With this purpose, a coupled model was recently developed linking SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) with the fully-distributed groundwater model MODFLOW (Modular Groundwater Flow). In this study, SWAT and SWAT-MODFLOW were applied to a Danish groundwater-dominant catchment, simulating groundwater abstraction scenarios and assessing the benefits and drawbacks of SWAT-MODFLOW. Both models demonstrated good performance. However, SWAT-MODFLOW provided more realistic outputs when simulating abstraction: the decrease in streamflow was similar to the volume of water abstracted, while in SWAT the impact was negligible. SWAT also showed impacts on streamflow only when abstractions were taken from the shallow aquifer, not from the deep aquifer. Overall, SWAT-MODFLOW demonstrated wider possibilities for groundwater analysis, providing more insights than SWAT in supporting decision making in relation to environmental assessment.  相似文献   
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