The effect of storms on Finnish dairy farms: electrical outage statistics and the effect on milk production

Natural Hazards - Due to technological advancement, agricultural production is increasingly dependent on electricity. At the same time, power delivery infrastructures are challenged by extreme...     

River channel evolution and tsunami impacts recorded in local sedimentary archives – the ‘Fiume Morto’ at Ostia Antica (Tiber River,Italy)

Ostia, the ancient port of Rome at the mouth of the river Tiber (Italy), flourished until the 2nd Century ad , although massive siltation had already caused the abandonment of its lagoonal harbour in the 1st Century bc . In search of an alternative harbour site, geomorphological and geoarchaeological research was carried out in the ‘Fiume Morto’, an abandoned Tiber meander to the immediate north of the town. To reconstruct its complex development and evaluate the suitability of the river channel as a fluvial harbour, a transect perpendicular to the former river channel's flow axis was systematically explored by a new methodological approach combining electrical resistivity tomography, direct push-electrical conductivity sensing and vibracores. Together with microfossil, mineralogical and geochemical analyses of sediment samples and 50 radiocarbon dates, in-depth stratigraphic data support a detailed reconstruction of different Tiber channel generations. Results reveal a meander development closely related to distinct ‘cut and fill’ dynamics. Inactive river channels were repeatedly filled with lagoonal sediments, abruptly followed by phases of intense incision. Yet, the overall Fiume Morto channel structure remained stable and almost in situ over centuries, showing nearly no lateral changes since the southward shift of the Tiber River mouth in the first millennium bc . In the 1st Century bc , channel conditions favoured navigation and transportation of goods with large ships. Open-water conditions, suitable for anchoring and landing activities, dominate from the 1st Century ad until 1557 ad , when the Fiume Morto meander was finally cut off and silted up within a short time. Within the fluvial deposits, sediments most likely related to tsunami inundations are preserved. These events occurred sometime before the 2nd Century bc , in the early 1st Century ad and in the 17th Century ad or later. Results are consistent with traces of tsunami influence found in Ostia's western lagoonal harbour.     

Linking mineralogy and spectroscopy of highly aqueously altered CM and CI carbonaceous chondrites in preparation for primitive asteroid sample return

The highly hydrated, petrologic type 1 CM and CI carbonaceous chondrites likely derived from primitive, water‐rich asteroids, two of which are the targets for JAXA's Hayabusa2 and NASA's OSIRIS‐REx missions. We have collected visible and near‐infrared (VNIR) and mid infrared (MIR) reflectance spectra from well‐characterized CM1/2, CM1, and CI1 chondrites and identified trends related to their mineralogy and degree of secondary processing. The spectral slope between 0.65 and 1.05 μm decreases with increasing total phyllosilicate abundance and increasing magnetite abundance, both of which are associated with more extensive aqueous alteration. Furthermore, features at ~3 μm shift from centers near 2.80 μm in the intermediately altered CM1/2 chondrites to near 2.73 μm in the highly altered CM1 chondrites. The Christiansen features (CF) and the transparency features shift to shorter wavelengths as the phyllosilicate composition of the meteorites becomes more Mg‐rich, which occurs as aqueous alteration proceeds. Spectra also show a feature near 6 μm, which is related to the presence of phyllosilicates, but is not a reliable parameter for estimating the degree of aqueous alteration. The observed trends can be used to estimate the surface mineralogy and the degree of aqueous alteration in remote observations of asteroids. For example, (1) Ceres has a sharp feature near 2.72 μm, which is similar in both position and shape to the same feature in the spectra of the highly altered CM1 MIL 05137, suggesting abundant Mg‐rich phyllosilicates on the surface. Notably, both OSIRIS‐REx and Hayabusa2 have onboard instruments which cover the VNIR and MIR wavelength ranges, so the results presented here will help in corroborating initial results from Bennu and Ryugu.     

How will climate change alter fishery governanceʔ Insights from seven international case studies

We examine the implications of climate change for fishery governance using seven international fishery case studies in low, mid and high latitudes, including eastern Australia, the western Pacific Ocean, Alaska, west coast United States, Hawaii, west coast Canada and France. Climate change adds uncertainty about fish stock productivity, migratory patterns, trophic interactions and vulnerability of fish populations to fishing pressure.     

Representativeness of wind measurements on a mesoscale grid with station separations of 312 m to 10 km

A field experiment was carried out in which wind speed and direction were measured over flat terrain at a height of 10 m using 13 identical instruments spaced logarithmically along two perpendicular 10 km lines. Station separations ranged from 312 m to 10 km. One-minute data from 11 sampling periods of duration 6 to 10 h were studied. p ]The statistics showed little dependence on whether the line of instruments was oriented along the wind or across the wind. The correlation coefficients between wind fluctuations at two stations separated by distance x were found to vary exponentially with x, with an integral distance scale on the order of 1 km. The integral time scale derived from the variation of the single station variances with averaging time was found to equal several minutes. At a station separation of 10 km, the correlation coefficients between the wind components at the two sites were calculated to be 0.24, 0.37, and 0.47 for averaging times of 1, 10, and 60 min, respectively. These values for the correlation coefficients correspond to root-mean-square differences in wind speed at the two stations of about 1.3, 1.0, and 0.7 m/s, respectively.Exponential formulas based on dimensional analysis are suggested for fitting these observations. It is found that the observations of spatial correlations are best fit if two independent integral distance scales are used — a boundary-layer distance scale of about 300 m that best applies to small station separations and a mesoscale distance scale of about 10 km that applies to larger station separations.     

Statistical simulations of the future 50-year statistics of cold-tongue El Niño and warm-pool El Niño

Recent extensive studies have suggested that the occurrence of warm-pool El Niño has increased since the late 1970s and will increase in future climate. Occurrence frequencies of cold-tongue and warm-pool El Niño have been investigated in the observational record (1980–2006) and in the future 50 years (2007–2056) based on 100 synthetic SST datasets with estimates of statistical confidence. In the observational record, 80% of the warm-pool El Niño occurred since 1980 over a period of 27 years; only 20% of the warm-pool El Niño occurred prior to 1980 over a period of 110 years. The 100 synthetic datasets, on average, produce 142 months of cold-tongue El Niño in 2007–2056 as opposed to an average 107 months in the same length of the observational data; this is a 20.7% increase in the occurrence of cold-tongue El Niño compared with the observational period. Warm-pool El Niño occurred for 112 months in 2007–2056 as opposed to an average occurrence of 42 months in the observational record; this is 2.5 times the occurrence frequency in the 1980–2006 period in the synthetic datasets. As a result, occurrence frequencies of cold-tongue and warm-pool El Niño in the period of 2007–2056 become quite comparable to each other in the synthetic datasets. It is expected in the next 50 years that warm-pool El Niño will be nearly as frequent as cold-tongue El Niño.     

Assessing the ambition of post-2020 climate targets: a comprehensive framework

One of the most fundamental questions surrounding the new Paris Agreement is whether countries’ proposals to reduce GHG emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious, considering differences in circumstances between countries. We review a variety of approaches to assess the ambition of the GHG emission reduction proposals by countries. The approaches are applied illustratively to the mitigation part of the post-2020 climate proposals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by China, the EU, and the US. The analysis reveals several clear trends, even though the results differ per individual assessment approach. We recommend that such a comprehensive ambition assessment framework, employing a large variety of approaches, is used in the future to capture a wide spectrum of perspectives on ambition.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Assessing the ambition of the national climate proposals is particularly important as the Paris Agreement asks for regular reviews of national contributions, keeping in mind that countries raise their ambition over time. Such an assessment will be an important part of the regular global stocktake that will take place every five years, starting with a ‘light’ version in 2018. However, comprehensive methods to assess the proposals are lacking. This article provides such a comprehensive assessment framework.     

An empirical formula for the height of the coastal internal boundary layer

Observations of the height of the daytime coastal internal boundary layer at several sites are used to justify an empirical formula in the Offshore and Coastal Dispersion (OCD) model, which states that the boundary-layer slope is 0.1 in the first 2km from the shoreline, and 0.03 therafter.