Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

     

A Probabilistic Expert System Approach for Sea Mine Burial Prediction

Knowledge of the extent of burial of bottom sitting sea mines is critical to mine detection due to the significantly degraded capabilities of mine-hunting systems when the mines are buried. To provide an enhanced capability for predicting mine burial in support of U.S. Navy mine countermeasure (MCM) operations, an expert system approach to predicting sea mine burial has been developed. This expert system serves as a means to synthesize previous and current research on sea mine burial due to impact upon deployment and subsequently due to scour, the two dominant burial mechanisms in littoral waters. Prediction systems for impact and scour burial have been implemented as simple Bayesian networks whose probabilistic basis provides means of accounting for the inherent uncertainties associated with mine deployment methods, simplified physics-based burial models, and environmental variability. Examples of burial predictions and comparisons to results from field experiments are illustrated. In addition, a proposed risk metric is developed and applied to provide a geospatial mapping of mine burial probability.     

Neural network modeling applications in active slope stability problems

A back propagation artificial neural network approach is applied to three common challenges in engineering geology: (1) characterization of subsurface geometry/position of the slip (or failure surface) of active landslides, (2) assessment of slope displacements based on ground water elevation and climate, and (3) assessment of groundwater elevations based on climate data. Series of neural network models are trained, validated, and applied to a landslide study along Lake Michigan and cases from the literature. The subsurface characterization results are also compared to a limit equilibrium circular failure surface search with specific adopted boundary conditions. It is determined that the neural network models predict slip surfaces better than the limit equilibrium slip surface search using the most conservative criteria. Displacements and groundwater elevations are also predicted fairly well, in real time. The models’ ability to predict displacements and groundwater elevations provides a foundational framework for building future warning systems with additional inputs.     

An assessment of boundary-layer air mass characteristics associated with topographically-induced local wind systems

Measured and derived meteorological parameters are used to examine the changes in air mass associated with local winds of differing origin. Research conducted explores the usefulness of wet bulb potential temperature, equivalent potential temperature, virtual potential temperature and relative humidity as indicators of air mass change during sea breeze, foehn wind and nocturnal drainage flow events. The complex interactions between these different topographically-induced wind systems in South Canterbury, New Zealand, provide an environment in which marked changes in air mass characteristics are common. Results demonstrate that under a considerable range of boundary-layer conditions, measured wet bulb potential temperature when used in conjunction with windspeed and direction enables quick and accurate determination of air mass origin. Relative humidity was also found to respond closely to changes in local air mass type, but its dependence on air temperature makes it a less reliable indicator.     

A kite based atmospheric sounding system

A newly developed kite based atmospheric sounding system is described that can be deployed under a wide range of weather conditions. The Delta Kite system can be flown in wind speeds ranging from 4 to 25 ms^-1, while the exceptional lift capabilities of the kite allow several kilograms of payload to be attached to the kite and/or tether. In conjunction with its battery powered winch, the Delta Kite atmospheric sounding system is ideally suited to meteorological studies in remote locations where vehicle access may not be possible.     

A critical appraisal of the Cayconi Formation, Crucero Basin, southeastern Peru

The Cayconi Formation of the Crucero Basin, Puno Department, southeastern Peru, has been described as a 800–1000 m sequence of Oligocene and Miocene fanglomerate and lacustrine sedimentary rocks, interlayered with mafic and silicic volcanic rocks, and unconformably overlying Paleozoic and Cretaceous successions. On the basis of new field and petrological investigations, key aspects of the stratigraphic relationships of the rocks comprising this formation, and hence the viability of this lithostratigraphic name, are questioned. Thus, several sedimentary units previously assigned to the Cayconi Formation are reinterpreted as Cretaceous or older. We further argue that the formational terminology fails to accomodate the great variety of volcanic rocks, which are, moreover, disposed in isolated eruptive fields. We therefore propose establishment of the Crucero Supergroup as a broad, yet flexible framework for lithostratigraphic subdivision of the Tertiary sequences of the Cordillera Oriental of southeastern Peru. This new nomenclature accomodates the voluminous two-mica ash flow tuffs (Macusani Volcanics) and associated rocks of the Quenamari Meseta, a succession excluded from the existing lithostratigraphic classification scheme. It also permits distinction between the petrogenetically-contrasted upper Oligocene — Lower Miocene and Middle Miocene — Upper Miocene volcanic suites, which dominate, respectively, the Picotani and Quenamari Groups comprising the proposed Crucero Supergroup. Finally, the economically important granitic/rhyolitic intrusive centers cogenetic with the volcanic rocks are readily assignable to intrusive lithodemes in each group.     

Influence of age,size and condition factor on lipid concentration in the snapper Chrysophrys auratus

Survival, growth rates and functionality of larvae have been hypothesised to correlate with higher lipid provisioning in older teleosts. To test the lipid provisioning part of this hypothesis, we investigated the total and relative (mg/g) lipid (triglyceride) concentration in both the source (liver) and sink (gonad) lipidation organs of female snapper Chrysophrys auratus across age, size and condition factor throughout its spawning season. Age, size and condition factor had little discernible effect on the total or relative lipid concentration in either liver or gonadal tissue. Therefore, if oocyte quality (based on triglyceride concentration) is comparable across a population, research on the relationship between lipidomics and reproductive success needs to move beyond highlighting correlations to elucidating causation by focusing on the biochemical mechanisms of egg quality and larval survival, identifying maternal parameters associated with consistent lipid provisioning, and partitioning of phenotypic and genotypic maternal influences.     

A multimethod approach to inform epikarst drip discharge modelling: Implications for palaeo‐climate reconstruction

Resolving the hydrological processes that form speleothems and the palaeo‐climate archives that they contain is difficult. Typical approaches to hydrological investigation are not suited to karst landscapes, geophysics are seldom applied, drip monitoring and modelling have limitations, and ignoring potential hydrological impacts can result in a proxy record that does not reflect the external environment. We aim to understand the processes and controls that have created a palaeo‐climate proxy record preserved in a speleothem (JC001) in the “Grotto of Oddities,” part of the Jersey Cave at the Yarrangobilly Caves, Australia, to infer the likely nature and resolution of this record. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), traditional surveying, and drip discharge monitoring (April 2013 to February 2015) were used to investigate the structure and hydrology of the epikarst overlying the Grotto of Oddities. Data collected through these methods were then used to construct a physically informed and parsimonious drip hydrology model. Geophysics showed that changes in hillslope above the Grotto of Oddities are collocated with a region of low resistivity, which forms an epikarstic reservoir acting to supply enhanced discharge to the speleothem. Drip monitoring showed hysteretic behaviour with a distinct threshold response, and a simple drip classification indicated that the speleothem associated with the drip has the potential to record palaeo‐seasonality or an annual–decadal signal. Discharge modelling indicated discharge was comprised of quick and slow flow, and that discharge is probably perennial. These multimethod results together indicate that the speleothem likely represents a palaeo‐climate record of a length and resolution unprecedented for nonglacial areas of the Southern Hemisphere and for Australia in particular and will significantly enhance current knowledge of the climate of southeast Australia. Although ERT methods have previously been applied in the karst landscape, to our knowledge, this represents the first application of these multiple methods in combination as an approach to assess the fidelity of a speleothem, based on an understanding of the hydrological processes for palaeo‐climate reconstruction.     

Variation in sea temperature and the East Australian Current in the Solitary Islands region between 2001-2008

Improved understanding of the East Australian Current (EAC) and sea-temperature patterns within the Solitary Islands region of northern New South Wales, an area where tropical and temperate faunas overlap, is an essential step in explaining cross-shelf gradients in biotic patterns. Sea temperature at ∼10 m was logged using thermistors at seven stations every 30 minutes between January 2001 and December 2008. Stations were replicated in three distance-from-shore categories (<1.5; 1.5 to 6; and >6 km from the coast), corresponding with predominant assemblage patterns of reef fish. Daily, monthly, seasonal and yearly sea-temperature patterns were compared between and within stations and distance-from-shore categories. SST images were examined to determine the role of the EAC in producing short-period (2 to 4 days) temperature anomalies. Sea temperatures ranged between 16.6-27.5 °C and were highest offshore and lowest inshore. Offshore sites experienced average temperatures ∼1 °C higher than nearshore sites over the 8-year study. There was considerable variation in sea temperature between years, with 2002 and 2006 being the warmest and 2007 the coolest. These patterns correspond with strong inter-annual variability of the EAC at the scale of the Solitary Islands region. The EAC influenced shelf waters most strongly during late spring/summer when temperatures were also most variable over the smallest temporal scales (hours, days). Short-period anomalies between and within stations could largely be explained by variable encroachment of the EAC across the shelf and/or colder intrusions of water forming adjacent to the coastline. Previous assumptions that the EAC strongly influences gradients in the distribution of tropical species in this nearshore region are strongly supported.