天山南麓雷暴日短期预报研究

利用阿克苏及邻近地区12个气象站1980—2013年雷暴资料,以及同期高空资料,统计了各站年均雷暴日数,对发生区域雷暴天气的环流形势进行分类,归纳出各型的入型指标。通过逐步回归法,建立阿克苏及邻近地区区域雷暴概率回归预报模型,并对2013年进行试预报。结果表明:(1)阿克苏及邻近地区区域雷暴的影响系统主要分为4类:巴湖低槽型、急流型、西北气流型和温度槽型。(2)对2002—2012年5—9月(共1683 d)历史资料进行判别,满足入型条件的样本数为876 d,消空率为48%;对2013年5—9月(共153 d)历史资料进行判别,入型样本数为80 d,消空率为48%。(3)对2002—2012年5—9月所有入型样本进行回代检验,平均准确率为72.0%(平均TS评分为30.1%);对2013年5—9月所有入型样本进行试预报,平均准确率为63.2%(平均TS评分为28.2%)。     

风云三号降水测量雷达技术性能分析

风云三号降水测量卫星主要用于台风等灾害性天气系统强降水的监测,并提供全球中低纬度地区降水的结构信息。降水三维结构的准确测量是通过风云三号降水测量卫星的核心载荷——双频降水测量雷达实现的。首先介绍了风云三号降水测量雷达的主要任务与探测能力要求,然后通过仿真技术对降水测量雷达距离分辨率、水平分辨率、扫描角度、天线旁瓣电平、测量精度、波束匹配精度等主要技术性能指标进行了详细的分析。最后,利用于2010年开展的降水测量雷达样机航空校飞试验评估验证了降水测量雷达的各项功能和主要性能参数。结果表明,风云三号降水测量雷达整体降水探测性能与全球降水测量卫星的双频降水雷达相当。     

“六淫”致病的科学性及定量标准探讨

《黄帝内经》将气象学中的风、寒、暑、湿、燥、火（热）6种气象现象的太过、不及或非时之候而影响人体病变的发生,又将人体疾病症候状况分成上述6种类似气象现象的类型统称“六淫”。前者为外感疾病病因分类,后者为症候分类。于是,“六淫”就 有了双重含义。对“六淫”的科学含义及其定量标准进行了探讨。     

利用EXCEL软件进行线性回归分析

介绍了EXCEL数据处理软件在一元和多元线性回归分析中的应用方法及实现技巧。     

Study on Rationality of Large Diameter Pressure Relief Drilling Parameters Under Different Coal Seam Conditions

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - To study the influence of changes in the coal seam mechanical characteristics at depth on the stress relief effect of a borehole, this paper established...     

辽东的主要剪切带及其金矿化特征

辽东地区构造上位于辽中—吉南元古宙活动带西南部,为胶辽克拉通金矿床分布比较集中的地区。金矿化作用发生于古元古宙变质沉积岩和花岗片麻岩的韧性及脆-韧性剪切带之中,剪切活动与成金事件具同时性关系。矿化剪切带分为3大系统,其中近东—西向和北东—南西向两大系统发育于辽河群分布区,其受控于岩石非均匀性,分别借助于早(吕梁)期S1(≈S0)和S2或D3剪切带而形成,剪切活动(构造事件)与成金事件主要发生于印支运动;丹东韧性剪切带及其相关构造为本区最重要的含矿系统,矿床均顺主构造线分布,并规律性地受控于其次级构造,剪切带的形成和成金事件均在燕山运动时期。本区提供了一个特殊的克拉通成矿作用格局:容矿岩石时代老,成金事件时代新。     

黑洞大型古地下洞室群工程地质条件及岩体稳定性分析

位于浙江天台县蟹山山体内的黑洞洞室群, 以其优越的工程地质条件和完整的岩体结构, 自隋朝以来成为大型古地下采石场。洞室群包括总面积达24 000 m²的21个洞室, 其长轴方向基本沿两组主要地质结构面走向展布。研究显示:总体采石层系上白垩统塘上组(K₂t)第6层灰白色含玻屑熔结凝灰岩;岩体质量指标Q值计算结果为53(I级)。按现代地下洞室设计理念, 其长期稳定最大跨度应不大于50 m, 但实际上5号洞最大跨度达81 m, 可望成为地下人工岩石单洞跨度之最。现场调查发现, 古人在蟹山山脚残留多处地质探洞。古代工匠在洞室开挖过程中遇到断层破碎带时, 采用了近垂直、小断面、高台阶穿越技术方法, 有效保证了不良地质体中无支护开采的安全性和长期稳定性, 这对现代地下工程具有借鉴和工程类比意义。     

层状地基端承桩扭转动力阻抗研究

本文采用Novak薄层法推导粘弹性地基的扭转动力阻抗,并将其用于考虑桩土相互作用的单桩扭转动力阻抗,又通过传递矩阵法将此公式推广到求取层状地基单桩扭转动力阻抗。而且本文以工程中常用的端承桩为例,推导了层状地基中端承桩扭转动力阻抗的简化计算公式。根据此公式,分析了频率、上覆软土层厚度、上覆软土层刚度等因素对单桩扭转动力阻抗的影响,分析结果表明,随着振动频率提高,层状地基中端承单桩的扭转动力阻抗的实部有缓慢下降的趋势,而虚部则增大;随着上覆土层厚度的增加,层状地基中端承单桩的扭转动力阻抗的实部和虚部均减小;随着上覆土层刚度的减小,层状地基中端承单桩的扭转动力阻抗的实部减小,虚部在低频段减小,而在较高频率段则增大。     

A non-linear regularized constrained impedance inversion

Inversion for seismic impedance is an inherently complicated problem. It is ill‐posed and band‐limited. Thus the inversion results are non‐unique and the process is unstable. Combining regularization with constraints using sonic and density log data can help to reduce these problems. To achieve this, we developed an inversion method by constructing a new objective function, including edge‐preserving regularization and a soft constraint based on a Markov random field. The method includes the selection of proper initial values of the regularization parameters by a statistical method, and it adaptively adjusts the regularization parameters by the maximum likelihood method in a fast simulated‐annealing procedure to improve the inversion result and the convergence speed. Moreover, the method uses two kinds of regularization parameter: a ‘weighting factor’λ and a ‘scaling parameter’δ. We tested the method on both synthetic and field data examples. Tests on 2D synthetic data indicate that the inversion results, especially the aspects of the discontinuity, are significantly different for different regularization functions. The initial values of the regularization parameters are either too large or too small to avoid either an unstable or an over‐smoothed result, and they affect the convergence speed. When selecting the initial values of λ, the type of the regularization function should be considered. The results obtained by constant regularization parameters are smoother than those obtained by adaptively adjusting the regularization parameters. The inversion results of the field data provide more detailed information about the layers, and they match the impedance curves calculated from the well logs at the three wells, over most portions of the curves.     

Distribution of ionospheric O<Superscript>+</Superscript> ion in synchronous altitude region

Based on satellite observation data, using dynamics equation, the ionospheric O⁺ ion’s distribution in the synchronous altitude region for different geomagnetic activity indexK _p is studied by theoretical modeling and numerical analyzing, and semi-empirical models for the O⁺ ion’s density and flux versus longitude in the synchronous altitude region for differentK _p are given. The main results show that in the synchronous altitude region: (i) The O⁺ ion’s density and flux in day-side are larger than those in nightside. (ii) With longitude changing, the higher the geomagnetic activity indexK _p is, the higher the O⁺ ion’s density and flux, and their variation amplitude will be. The O⁺ ion’s density and flux whenK _{p ≥} 6 will be about ten times as great as that whenK _p = 0. (iii) WhenK _p = 0 orK _{p ≥} 6, the O⁺ ion’s density reaches maximum at longitudes 120° and 240° respectively, and minimum in the magnetotail. WhenK _p = 3−5, the O⁺ ion’s density gets to maximum at longitude 0°, and minimum in the magnetotail. However, the O⁺ ion’s flux reaches maximum at longitude 120° and 240° respectively, and minimum in the magnetotail for anyK _p value.