鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级（M≥67）及复发间隔研究

鲜水河断裂带是四川西部一条晚第四纪强烈左旋走滑活动的构造带，历史上发生多次强震. 它与西北侧的甘孜—玉树断裂带一起，构成青藏高原东部的侧向滑移构造系统中的川滇活动地块的北边界——羌塘地块的东北边界. 鲜水河断裂带北西段可以分成4个段落，每一段落均可作为一个独立的基本破裂单元而发生地震破裂，亦有可能发生不同尺度的多段联合瞧裂. 对鲜水河断裂带北西段不同尺度破裂的震级及复发间隔进行研究. 根据该地区的地质、地球物理、测量及地震等方面的资料，结合我国强震复发的特点，分析了拉分盆地内部的滑动速率分布，以确定各段落的等效长度和倾向宽度，从而建立适合我国大陆走滑断裂的面波震级与断裂发震面积的关系式；进而运用地震矩方法，考虑断层之间的相互作用，结合专家意见建立了该段的矩平衡断裂破裂模型；最后，给出了鲜水河断裂带北西段各破裂源特征化地震的复发间隔、震级大小和不确定性，以及他与中小地震的联合震级分布. 结果表明，鲜水河断裂带北西段较易发生单段破裂，复发间隔在100～150年左右.     

多种降阻材料搭配在变电站接地网改造中应用

在北海市三塘110KV变电站接地网系统改造工程实践中，通过不等长接地体技术及多种将阻材料搭配使用，克服了原接地网接地电阻值增大因素，并对变电站接地网改造和施工工艺进行设计。     

青海南部金沙江缝合带二叠纪硅质岩地球化学特征及沉积环境

青海省南部扎河地区金沙江缝合带中出露的通天河蛇绿混杂岩由不同时代、不同岩性的地层断片组成.对其中的二叠纪硅质岩进行地球化学研究后发现,该地区的硅质岩SiO2含量在71.56%～88.24%之间,Al/(Al Fe Mn)平均值为0.64,MnO/TiO2平均值为0.74,ΣREE平均为138.51×10-6,稀土元素配分曲线呈平坦型,δCe为0.97～1.49,平均为1.14,无明显异常;(La/Yb)N平均值为1.85,(La/Ce)N平均值为1.08,与已知大地构造背景的硅质岩地球化学特征对比,表明其形成环境为陆间洋盆环境.因此,金沙江带不能作为古特提斯域的主缝合带.     

What Happened in the Trans-North China Orogen in the Period 2560-1850 Ma？

The Trans-North China Orogen （TNCO） was a Paleoproterozic continent-continent collisional belt along which the Eastern and Western Blocks amalgamated to form a coherent North China Craton （NCC）. Recent geological, structural, geochemical and isotopic data show that the orogen was a continental margin or Japan-type arc along the western margin of the Eastern Block, which was separated from the Western Block by an old ocean, with eastward-directed subduction of the oceanic lithosphere beneath the western margin of the Eastern Block. At 2550-2520 Ma, the deep subduction caused partial melting of the medium-lower crust, producing copious granitoid magma that was intruded into the upper levels of the crust to form granitoid plutons in the low- to medium-grade granite-greeustone terranes. At 2530-2520 Ma, subduction of the oceanic lithosphere caused partial melting of the mantle wedge, which led to underplating of mafic magma in the lower crust and widespread mafic and minor felsic volcanism in the arc, forming part of the greenstone assemblages. Extension driven by widespread mafic to felsic volcanism led to the development of back-arc and/or intra-arc basins in the orogen. At 2520-2475 Ma, the subduction caused further partial melting of the lower crust to form large amounts of tonalitic-trondhjemitic-granodioritic （TTG） magmatism. At this time following further extension of back-arc basins, episodic granitoid magmatism occurred, resulting in the emplacement of 2360 Ma, -2250 Ma 2110-21760 Ma and -2050 Ma granites in the orogen. Contemporary volcano-sedimentary rocks developed in the back-arc or intra-are basins. At 2150-1920 Ma, the orogen underwent several extensional events, possibly due to subduction of an oceanic ridge, leading to emplacement of mafic dykes that were subsequently metamorphosed to amphibolites and medium- to high-pressure mafic granulites. At 1880-1820 Ma, the ocean between the Eastern and Western Blocks was completely consumed by subduction, and the dosing of the ocean led to the continent-arc-continent collision, which caused large-scale thrusting and isoclinal folds and transported some of the rocks into the lower crustal levels or upper mantle to form granulites or eclogites. Peak metamorphism was followed by exhumation/uplift, resulting in widespread development of asymmetric folds and symplectic textures in the rocks.     

DOWNSCALING FORECAST OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER GUANGXI BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK MODEL

Variables fields such as enstrophy, meridional-wind and zonal-wind variables are derived from monthly 500 hPa geopotential height anomalous fields. In this work, we select original predictors from monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields and their variables in June of 1958 - 2001, and determine comprehensive predictors by conducting empirical orthogonal function (EOF) respectively with the original predictors. A downscaling forecast model based on the back propagation (BP) neural network is built by use of the comprehensive predictors to predict the monthly precipitation in June over Guangxi with the monthly dynamic extended range forecast products. For comparison, we also build another BP neural network model with the same predictands by using the former comprehensive predictors selected from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields in May to December of 1957 - 2000 and January to April of 1958 - 2001. The two models are tested and results show that the precision of superposition of the downscaling model is better than that of the one based on former comprehensive predictors, but the prediction accuracy of the downscaling model depends on the output of monthly dynamic extended range forecast.     

中国冬季气温的集合典型相关分析和预报

以欧亚大陆地面温度、北半球500 hPa高度、热带印度洋SST(sea surface temperature)以及北太平洋SST为预报因子,通过典型相关分析(canonical correlation analysis,简称CCA)建立预报关系,然后用集合典型相关分析预报(ensemble canonical correlation prediction,简称ECC)方法预报中国冬季气温,并分析预报技巧及进行独立样本检验.结果表明,不同的预报因子对各个地区有不同的预报技巧,以欧亚大陆地面温度为预报因子预报技巧较高,而ECC模式对中国冬季气温有更好的预报能力,预报技巧高于任何一个单因子场的CCA预报;采用回归法的集合平均比简单的等权集合平均预报技巧更稳定.     

国土资源遥感影像数据库系统建设探讨

结合国土行业近几年在遥感技术、管理和应用等方面存在的更新缓慢、精度不足以及目前的遥感数据管理混乱,应用单一,已有的技术成果不完善,遥感信息的潜在价值没有充分挖掘等问题。提出建立遥感影像数据库系统的一些设想,希望能够减少重复投入和重复建设,避免投资浪费,保证数据来源一致性。     

索马里越赤道气流变化及对7~9月副高位置的影响

通过分析索马里越赤道气流的变化特征及其对7-9月副高脊线位置的影响关系,结果表明：（1）在近44年来冬、夏季索马里越赤道气流强度都呈增强趋势,具有南北半球气流交换越来越激烈之事实;（2）5月索马里越赤道气流对7-9月环流影响关系最好,与副高脊线位置的影响呈正相关关系;（3）2005年诊断与实况相符。     

旅游地图功能刍议

旅游地图越来越受到人们的青睐,其功能不断发展并日渐明显,本文对旅游地图的功能进行了阐释和探讨。     

21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展

由于极端天气气候事件的严重影响，越来越多的研究开始关注其变化情况。从观测分析到模拟研究，几乎都发现极端气温、降水事件发生了显著变化，而且在全球变暖的大背景下，未来有些极端事件可能会发生频数更高或强度更强。当然，研究结论也存在一定程度的不确定性，从模式模拟来看，目前模拟结果仍存在不确定性，不同模式的结果间常常存在较大的差异；而从观测分析来看，研究主要局限于20世纪后半叶，如果对更长时间作分析，结论或许会有所不同。文章从最基本的极端天气气候事件的定义出发，结合观测事实和模拟研究两个主要方面来介绍近几年来极端事件研究取得的主要进展，最后简单地总结了这些进展，并提出了进一步研究的思路。 