The first and the second e of the extreme value distribution,EV1

In the peak over threshold model resulting in the Extreme-value distribution, type I, (EV1) the firste of the distribution function is based on the Poisson number of exceedances, and the seconde arises from the Exponentially distributed magnitudes.This paper, on the one hand, generalises the Poisson model to the (positive and negative) Binomial distribution, and, on the other hand, the Exponential distribution is generalised to the Generalised Pareto distribution. Lack of fit with respect to the Poisson and Exponential distribution is measured by statistics derived from those which would be locally most powerful if the estimates of the location and scale parameter were equal to the true parameter values. Ways of combining both statistics are discussed.     

A study of objective methods for water mass analysis,applied to the Iceland Basin

Ocean Dynamics - Cluster analysis and principal component analysis have been applied to multi-parameter hydrographic data from the Iceland Basin. The results indicate that both objective methods...     

Late Holocene flood magnitudes in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta resolved by a two-dimensional hydraulic modelling approach

Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 10³ floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m³/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management.     

The effect of single vegetation elements on wind speed and sediment transport in the Sahelian zone of Burkina Faso

Soil loss caused by wind erosion is a widespread phenomenon in the Sahelian zone of West Africa. According to Sahelian farmers, scattered vegetation standing in amongst the crop has the potential for a wind erosion control strategy. This study was conducted to study the effect of single vegetation elements on the pattern of average wind speed and sediment transport. This was done by two experiments that were carried out during the rainy seasons of 2002 and 2003 in north Burkina Faso, West Africa. Wind speeds were measured using three sonic anemometers, at a sampling frequency of 16 Hz. Sediment transport was determined by calculating the mass fluxes from 17 MWAC catchers. In this study, a shrub was defined as a vegetation element with branches until ground and a tree as a vegetation element with a distinctive trunk below a canopy. Behind shrubs wind speed near the soil surface was reduced up to approximately seven times the height of the shrub. The observed reduction in wind speed in the area where wind speed was reduced was 15 per cent on average. At the sides of the shrub, wind speed was increased, by on average 6 per cent. As the area of increase in wind speed is one‐third of the area of decrease in wind speed, the net effect of a shrub is a reduction in wind speed. A similar pattern was visible for the pattern of sediment transport around a shrub. Downwind of a shrub, sediment transport was diminished up to seven times the height of the shrub. Probably most of this material was trapped by the shrub. Trees showed a local increase of wind around the trunk, which is expected to relate to an increase in sediment transport around the trunk. Mass flux measurements of sediment transport were not made, but visual observations in the field substantiate this. Behind the canopy of a tree, a tree acts similarly to a shrub regarding its effects on average wind speed, but as a tree is generally a larger obstacle than a shrub the extent of this effect is larger than for shrubs. Thus, whereas shrubs are more effective than trees regarding their direct effect on soil loss by trapping sand particles near the soil surface, trees are more effective in affecting soil loss indirectly by reducing the wind speed downwind more effectively than shrubs. Therefore, to reduce soil loss in an area, the presence of both trees and shrubs is crucial. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrothermal calderas

The standard model of caldera formation is related to the emptying of a magma chamber and ensuing roof collapse during large eruptions or subsurface withdrawal. Although this model works well for numerous volcanoes, it is inappropriate for many basaltic volcanoes (with the notable exception of Hawaii), as these have eruptions that involve volumes of magma that are small compared to the collapse. Many arc volcanoes also have similar oversized depressions, such as Poas (Costa Rica) and Aoba (Vanuatu). In this article, we propose an alternative caldera model based on deep hydrothermal alteration of volcanic rocks in the central part of the edifice. Under certain conditions, the clay-rich altered and pressurized core may flow under its own weight, spread laterally, and trigger very large caldera-like collapse. Several specific mechanisms can generate the formation of such hydrothermal calderas. Among them, we identify two principal modes: mode 1: ripening with summit loading and flank spreading and mode II: unbuttressing with flank subsidence and flank sliding. Processes such as summit loading or flank subsidence may act simultaneously in hybrid mechanisms. Natural examples are shown to illustrate the different modes of formation. For ripening, we give Aoba (Vanuatu) as an example of probable summit loading, while Casita (Nicaragua) is the type example of flank spreading. For unbuttressing, Nuku Hiva Island (Marquesas) is our example for flank subsidence and Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion) is our example of flank sliding. The whole process is slow and probably needs (a) at least a few tens of thousands of years to deeply alter the edifice and reach conditions suitable for ductile flow and (b) a few hundred years to achieve the caldera collapse. The size and the shape of the caldera strictly mimic that of the underlying weak core. Thus, the size of the caldera is not controlled by the dimensions of the underlying magma reservoir. A collapsing hydrothermal caldera could generate significant phreatic activity and trigger major eruptions from a coexisting magmatic complex. As the buildup to collapse is slow, such caldera-forming events could be detected long before their onset.     

临界转换的早期预警信号

从生态系统到金融市场和气候在内的很多复杂动力系统,都会有临界点,在这样的点上系统可能会发生突变,从而演变到一个对立的动力模式上。在这样的临界点到达之前对其进行预测极为困难,但是现在,不同科学领域的研究工作表明,普遍性的早期预警信号有迹可循。对一系列不同类型的系统来说,这些信号会指示是否正在趋近一个临界阈值。     

Modelling aeolian sand transport and morphological development in two beach nourishment areas

The aeolian sand transport model SAFE and the air flow model HILL were applied to evaluate cross‐shore changes at two nourished beaches and adjacent dunes and to identify the response of aeolian sand transport and morphology to several nourishment design parameters and fill characteristics. The main input of the model consisted of data on the sediment, tide and meteorological conditions, and of half‐yearly measured characteristics of topography, vegetation and sand fences. The cross‐shore profiles generated by SAFE–HILL were compared to measured cross‐shore profiles. The patterns of erosion and deposition, and the morphological development corresponded. In general, the rates of aeolian sand transport were overestimated. The impact of parameters that are related to beach nourishment (namely grain size, adaptation length and beach topography) on profile development was evaluated. Grain size affected the aeolian sand transport rate to the foredunes, and therefore the morphology. Adaptation length, which is a measure of the distance over which sediment transport adapts to a new equilibrium condition, affected the topography of the beach in particular. The topography of a beach nourishment had limited impact on both aeolian sand transport rate and morphology. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterization of Estuarine and Fluvial Dissolved Organic Matter by Thermochemolysis using Tetramethylammonium Hydroxide

Selected samples of dissolved organic matter (DOM) isolated by ultrafiltration (UDOM) have been analyzed by thermochemolysis in the presence of tetramethylammonium hydroxide (TMAH). This technique cleaves ester and ether bonds of bio‐ and geological macromolecules and releases monomer subunits and methylates them in situ as their methyl ethers and methyl esters. Compared with conventional pyrolysis, TMAH thermochemolysis avoids decarboxylation of preexisting carboxylic moieties and produces aromatic acids as their methyl esters. Various phenolic derivatives, which might originate from incorporated lignin‐derived structures, from the highly aliphatic and resistant biopolymer cutan and also from proteinaceous materials, were identified among the products produced from UDOM upon thermochemolysis. The presence of lignin derivatives in UDOM indicates input of organic matter derived from terrestrial sources. Various aromatic acids, perhaps representing the final steps in the oxidation of the side‐chain during microbial oxidation of lignin, were released upon TMAH thermochemolysis, suggesting they are structural constituents of the UDOM. Different ratios of lignin‐derived materials, commonly determined using the CuO oxidation method, such as the Δ value, indicative of the amount of lignin present, the acid/aldehyde ratio (Ad/Al)_G, indicative of the extent of oxidative degradation of the lignin component, and the syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) and p‐hydroxyphenyl/guaiacyl (P/G) ratios, indicative of the contribution for the different types of lignin, were determined.     

Temporal and spatial variability of cross-fault groundwater-level differences: the impact of fault-induced permeability reduction,precipitation and evapotranspiration

Hydrogeology Journal - Faults in the Roer Valley Rift System (Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany) act as barriers to lateral groundwater flow in unconsolidated sedimentary aquifers. This causes a...     

The influence of particle composition on thorium scavenging in the NE Atlantic ocean (POMME experiment)

²³⁰Th, ²³²Th and ²³⁴Th were analyzed in sinking particles collected by moored and drifting sediment traps in the NE Atlantic Ocean (POMME experiment) in order to constrain the phase(s) carrying Th isotopes in the water column. It reveals a contrasted behaviour between ²³⁴Th and ²³⁰Th. ²³⁴Th is correlated to the particulate organic carbon suggesting that it is primarily scavenged by organic compounds in the surface waters. ²³⁰Th_xs is correlated with Mn, Ba and the lithogenic fraction that are enriched in small suspended particles and incorporated in the sinking particulate flux throughout the water column. The lack of correlation between ²³⁰Th_xs and CaCO₃ or biogenic silica (bSi) indicates that CaCO₃ and bSi are not responsible for ²³⁰Th scavenging in the deep waters of this oceanic region. ²³⁰Th is generally correlated with the lithogenic content of the trapped material but this correlation disappears in winter during strong atmospheric dust inputs suggesting that lithogenic matter is not directly responsible for ²³⁰Th scavenging in the deep waters or that sufficient time is required to achieve particle–solution equilibration. MnO₂ could be the prevalent ²³⁰Th_xs-bearing phase. The narrow range of K_{d_MnO2}^Th obtained for very contrasted oceanic environments supports a global control of ²³⁰Th_xs scavenging by MnO₂ and raises the possibility that the ²³⁰Th–²³¹Pa fractionation is controlled by the amount of colloidal MnO₂ in seawater.