A structured analysis of uncertainty surrounding modeled impacts of groundwater-extraction rules

Integrating economic and groundwater models for groundwater-management can help improve understanding of trade-offs involved between conflicting socioeconomic and biophysical objectives. However, there is significant uncertainty in most strategic decision-making situations, including in the models constructed to represent them. If not addressed, this uncertainty may be used to challenge the legitimacy of the models and decisions made using them. In this context, a preliminary uncertainty analysis was conducted of a dynamic coupled economic-groundwater model aimed at assessing groundwater extraction rules. The analysis demonstrates how a variety of uncertainties in such a model can be addressed. A number of methods are used including propagation of scenarios and bounds on parameters, multiple models, block bootstrap time-series sampling and robust linear regression for model calibration. These methods are described within the context of a theoretical uncertainty management framework, using a set of fundamental uncertainty management tasks and an uncertainty typology.     

Insights from trace element geochemistry as to the roles of subduction zone geometry and subduction input on the chemistry of arc magmas

Subduction zones of continental, transitional, and oceanic settings, relative to the nature of the overriding plate, are compared in terms of trace element compositions of mafic to intermediate arc rocks, in order to evaluate the relationship between subduction parameters and the presence of subduction fluids. The continental Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) and the transitional to oceanic Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA) show increasing degrees of melting with increasing involvement of slab fluids, as is typical for hydrous flux melting beneath arc volcanoes. At the SVZ, the central segment with the thinnest continental crust/lithosphere erupted the highest-degree melts from the most depleted sources, similar to the oceanic-like Nicaraguan segment of the CAVA. The northern part of the SVZ, located on the thickest continental crust/lithosphere, exhibits features more similar to Costa Rica situated on the Caribbean Large Igneous Province, with lower degrees of melting from more enriched source materials. The composition of the slab fluids is characteristic for each arc system, with a particularly pronounced enrichment in Pb at the SVZ and in Ba at the CAVA. A direct compositional relationship between the arc rocks and the corresponding marine sediments that are subducted at the trenches clearly shows that the compositional signature of the lavas erupted in the different arcs carries an inherited signal from the subducted sediments.     

Fostering assumption-based stress-test thinking in managing groundwater systems: learning to avoid failures due to basic dynamics

Sustainable groundwater resource management can only be achieved if planning processes address the basic dynamics of the groundwater system. Conceptual and distributed groundwater models do not necessarily translate into an understanding of how a plan might operate in reality. Prompted by Australian experiences, ‘iterative closed-question modelling’ has been used to develop a process of iterative dialogue about management options, objectives and knowledge. Simple hypothetical models of basic system dynamics that satisfy agreed assumptions are used to stress-test the ability of a proposed management plan to achieve desired future conditions. Participants learn from models in which a plan succeeds and fails, updating their assumptions, expectations or plan. Their new understanding is tested against further hypothetical models. The models act as intellectual devices that confront users with new scenarios to discuss. This theoretical approach is illustrated using simple one and two-cell groundwater models that convey basic notions of capture and spatial impacts of pumping. Simple extensions can address uncertain climate, managed-aquifer recharge and alternate water sources. Having learnt to address the dynamics captured by these models, participants may be better placed to address local conditions and develop more effective arrangements to achieve management outcomes.     

Gamma-ray binaries and related systems

After initial claims and a long hiatus, it is now established that several binary stars emit high- (0.1–100 GeV) and very high-energy (>100 GeV) gamma rays. A new class has emerged called “gamma-ray binaries”, since most of their radiated power is emitted beyond 1 MeV. Accreting X-ray binaries, novae and a colliding wind binary (η Car) have also been detected—“related systems” that confirm the ubiquity of particle acceleration in astrophysical sources. Do these systems have anything in common? What drives their high-energy emission? How do the processes involved compare to those in other sources of gamma rays: pulsars, active galactic nuclei, supernova remnants? I review the wealth of observational and theoretical work that have followed these detections, with an emphasis on gamma-ray binaries. I present the current evidence that gamma-ray binaries are driven by rotation-powered pulsars. Binaries are laboratories giving access to different vantage points or physical conditions on a regular timescale as the components revolve on their orbit. I explain the basic ingredients that models of gamma-ray binaries use, the challenges that they currently face, and how they can bring insights into the physics of pulsars. I discuss how gamma-ray emission from microquasars provides a window into the connection between accretion–ejection and acceleration, while η Car and novae raise new questions on the physics of these objects—or on the theory of diffusive shock acceleration. Indeed, explaining the gamma-ray emission from binaries strains our theories of high-energy astrophysical processes, by testing them on scales and in environments that were generally not foreseen, and this is how these detections are most valuable.     

The Corossol structure: A possible impact crater on the seafloor of the northwestern Gulf of St. Lawrence,Eastern Canada

We report on a 4.1 (±0.2) km diameter and 185 m deep circular submarine structure exposed on the seabed in >40 m water depths in the northwestern Gulf of St. Lawrence (Eastern Canada) from the analysis of high‐resolution multibeam bathymetric and seismic data. The presence of a circular form characterized by a central uplift and concentric rings resembles the morphology and geometry of complex meteorite impact structures. Also, other origins, such as kimberlites, intrusions, karsts, or diapirs, can be eliminated on geological criteria. A single 4 cm long breccia fragment recovered from the central uplift has numerous glassy droplets of fluorapatite composition, assumed to be impact melts, and a single quartz grain with planar intersection features thought to be shock‐induced planar deformation features (PDFs). The absolute age of this possible impact structure is unknown, but its geological setting indicates that it was formed long after the Mid‐Ordovician and before regional pre‐Quaternary sea‐level lowstands. Present results outline the need for further examination to confirm an impact origin and to precisely date the formation of the structure.     

Glass-iron-clay interactions in a radioactive waste geological disposal: An integrated laboratory-scale experiment

Glass-iron-clay setups were reacted at 90 °C for 6-18 months to investigate the coupled interactions between glass alteration, Fe corrosion and clay transformation. The reacted interfaces were probed at the microscopic level using complementary characterization methods (scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray analysis, micro-Raman spectroscopy, micro X-ray diffraction, micro X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, and micro X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy). The 10-μm thick Fe foil was fully corroded within 10 months, exposing glass to the pore solution. Iron corrosion led to the formation of a layer containing mostly magnetite, siderite and Fe-rich phyllosilicates with one tetrahedral and one octahedral sheet (TO) or two tetrahedral and one octahedral (TOT) sheet per layer. The clay in contact with this corrosion layer was enriched in siderite (FeCO₃). Glass alteration resulted in the formation of a gel layer whose thickness increased with reaction time (from 20 μm after 6 months to 80 μm after 18 months) and a thin layer of secondary precipitates that concentrated lanthanides, P, and Mo. Assuming conservative behavior of Zr, the Si molar concentration in the gel is about 57% that in the glass. Glass dissolution remained at a rate close to the initial dissolution rate r₀. The data are consistent with glass dissolution sustained by the uptake of dissolved Si and charge-compensating cations on secondary (corrosion) products, thus maintaining the gel porosity open and facilitating the leaching of easily soluble elements.     

Atmospheric response to the North Atlantic Ocean variability on seasonal to decadal time scales

The NCEP twentieth century reanalyis and a 500-year control simulation with the IPSL-CM5 climate model are used to assess the influence of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the North Atlantic region at seasonal to decadal time scales. At the seasonal scale, the air-sea interaction patterns are similar in the model and observations. In both, a statistically significant summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly with a horseshoe shape leads an atmospheric signal that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the winter. The air-sea interactions in the model thus seem realistic, although the amplitude of the atmospheric signal is half that observed, and it is detected throughout the cold season, while it is significant only in late fall and early winter in the observations. In both model and observations, the North Atlantic horseshoe SST anomaly pattern is in part generated by the spring and summer internal atmospheric variability. In the model, the influence of the ocean dynamics can be assessed and is found to contribute to the SST anomaly, in particular at the decadal scale. Indeed, the North Atlantic SST anomalies that follow an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) by about 9 years, or an intensification of a clockwise intergyre gyre in the Atlantic Ocean by 6 years, resemble the horseshoe pattern, and are also similar to the model Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As the AMOC is shown to have a significant impact on the winter NAO, most strongly when it leads by 9 years, the decadal interactions in the model are consistent with the seasonal analysis. In the observations, there is also a strong correlation between the AMO and the SST horseshoe pattern that influences the NAO. The analogy with the coupled model suggests that the natural variability of the AMOC and the gyre circulation might influence the climate of the North Atlantic region at the decadal scale.     

Quantitative precipitation forecasts: a statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach

Medium-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) up to several days ahead are required to issue early flood warnings and to allow optimum operation of hydraulic structures or reservoirs. This paper describes an approach which can be seen as an adaptation of deterministic meteorological model outputs. It involves searching for a sample of past situations similar to the current one from a long meteorological archive. The analogy is considered in terms of general circulation patterns over a window covering western Europe. For this restricted sample of days similar to the day at hand, the corresponding sample of observed daily precipitation is extracted for each catchment. The rainfall to be observed during the current day is assumed to follow the same distribution, known from this empirical sample. This provides a probabilistic forecast expressed, for example, by a central quantile and a confidence range. This paper describes the many choices underlying the optimisation of this approach: choice of predictor variables to characterise a meteorological situation, choice of similarity criterion between two situations, criterion for performance evaluation between two versions of the algorithm, etc. This method was calibrated over about 50 catchments located in France, Italy and Spain, using a meteorological and hydrological archive running from 1953 to 1996. Comparisons carried out over a validation sample (1995–1996) with three poor-man methods prove the interest of this approach, in a perfect prognosis context. In real-time operation, the use of forecast instead of observed predictor variables, essentially geopotential fields, produces only a minor decrease in performance. The use of the single-valued central quantile supplemented by the confidence interval provided a QPF that has proved effective and informative on the potential for extreme values.     

Diagenetic controls on the isotopic composition of carbonate‐associated sulphate in the Permian Capitan Reef Complex,West Texas

Late Palaeozoic‐age strata from the Capitan Reef in west Texas show facies‐dependent heterogeneity in the sulphur isotopic composition of carbonate‐associated sulphate, which is trace sulphate incorporated into carbonate minerals that is often used to reconstruct the sulphur isotopic composition of ancient seawater. However, diagenetic pore fluid processes may influence the sulphur isotopic composition of carbonate‐associated sulphate. These processes variously modify the sulphur isotopic composition of incorporated sulphate from syndepositional seawater in shelf crest, outer shelf, shelf margin and slope depositional settings. This study used a new multicollector inductively‐coupled plasma mass spectrometry technique to determine the sulphur isotopic composition of samples of individual depositional and diagenetic textures. Carbonate rocks representing peritidal facies in the Yates and Tansill formations preserve the sulphur isotopic composition of Guadalupian seawater sulphate despite alteration of the carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions by meteoric and dolomitizing diagenetic processes. However, sulphur isotopic data indicate that limestones deposited in reef and slope facies in the Capitan and Bell Canyon formations largely incorporate sulphate from anoxic marine‐phreatic pore fluids isotopically modified from seawater by microbial sulphate reduction, despite generally preserving the carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions of Permian seawater. Some early and all late meteoric calcite cements have carbonate‐associated sulphate with a sulphur isotopic composition distinct from that of Permian seawater. Detailed petrographic and sedimentary context for carbonate‐associated sulphate analyses will allow for improved reconstructions of ancient seawater composition and diagenetic conditions in ancient carbonate platforms. The results of this study indicate that carbonate rocks that diagenetically stabilize in high‐energy environments without pore fluid sulphate gradients can provide a robust archive of ancient seawater's sulphur isotopic composition.