北冰洋高纬度区域海冰及气象特征分析

基于2018年8月至2019年5月布放在北极随海冰漂流的自动气象站和温度链浮标获取的观测数据,分析了北极高纬度区域的大气特征和海冰生消过程。根据海冰的漂移轨迹分为两个阶段分析,第1阶段,海冰主要向东南漂移;第2阶段,海冰主要向东北漂移。第1阶段观测的平均气温和平均相对湿度分别为–6.6℃和93%,第2阶段观测的平均气温和平均相对湿度分别为–29.3℃和76%,第2阶段平均气压高于第1阶段。海冰的漂移轨迹主要受到波弗特高压外围气流的影响。利用自动气象站漂移轨迹计算得到海冰漂移速度,与美国国家冰雪数据中心海冰漂移速度比较显示,两者纬向速度更为接近。海冰在第1阶段以融化为主,海冰厚度略有减小,8月份海冰生长率为–0.11 cm/d;海冰的生长过程主要发生在第2阶段,1–3月生长率均超过0.9 cm/d,2019年3月海冰生长最快,平均生长率为1.3 cm/d,海冰的增长一直持续至观测结束。     

黄河口潮滩泥沙絮凝研究

本文基于现场观测的絮团粒径、悬沙浓度及水动力数据,研究了黄河口南部潮滩泥沙絮凝特征。研究发现,黄河口潮滩絮团粒径在25.42～264.44 μm之间,平均为95.20 μm。水体紊动对黄河口潮滩絮凝的影响存在差异,紊动对絮凝促进作用的上限约为G_l=3.76 s⁻¹。紊动强度低于G_l时,紊动促进泥沙絮凝,絮团粒径随紊动加强而增大;反之水体紊动对絮凝主要起抑制作用,絮团粒径随紊动强度增大而减小。悬沙浓度对黄河口潮滩泥沙絮凝起抑制作用,同等紊动条件下高悬沙浓度对应的絮团粒径更小。黄河口潮滩絮团有效密度与粒径呈现负相关关系,沉速主要受粒径影响。本研究补充了对弱潮河口潮滩泥沙絮凝特性的认识。     

植被对波浪作用下床面切应力影响的数值模拟分析

本文基于OpenFOAM建立三维波浪数值水槽,模拟计算植被水域波浪作用下的床面切应力,分析了入射波高、植被密度、植被淹没高度、水流对植被水域波浪作用下床面切应力的影响。结果表明：纯波时,由于植被的阻水作用,植被水域床面切应力沿程衰减,其衰减程度与入射波高、植被密度及植被淹没高度呈现正相关;与纯波时相比,在波浪和同向流共同作用下正向床面切应力幅值增大,负向床面切应力幅值减小;弱水流对植被水域床面切应力的大小及分布无明显影响;强水流时,床面切应力在植被水域先增大后逐渐减小并在植被水域后显著降低。     

Numerical study of sand scour with a modified Eulerian model based on incipient motion theory

Application of the standard Eulerian model to simulations of sand scour results in unrealistic phenomena. Therefore, the present work develops a modified Eulerian model based on sand incipient motion theory. The modified model is applied for simulating a two-dimensional single vertical jet and a moving planar jet. The simulation results generally demonstrate fairly good agreement with published results of scour profiles and the velocity contours of the water and sand phases. In addition, equations to describe self-similar scour profiles for the moving planar jet cases are given. The results demonstrate that the modified model efficiently and accurately simulates the two-dimensional sand scour produced by jets, particularly for the moving jet cases.     

新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统

依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究",中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位,通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究,建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统,并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术,在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。     

The prediction of traveling jet trenching in stiff clay based on the erosion failure mechanism

The performance of traveling jet trenching in stiff clay was tested. All the key parameters varied in the experiment, including the jet velocity, the shear strength of clay, the diameter of the nozzle, and the translational velocity of the nozzle. The jet–soil interface was found to be an arc. An equation was given to describe the interface. On the basis of the erosion failure mechanism, a new method is presented for predicting jet trenching depth. We first calculated the trajectory of the jet–soil interface and then predicted the distribution of the boundary layer shear stress along the jet–soil interface. The point where the wall shear stress was equal to the critical shear strength of clay was the ultimate trenching depth. The predictive results were found to fit the experimental results well.     

Settlement Prediction Under Linearly Loading Condition

The relationship between time and settlement is a key problem in geotechnical engineering. Current methods used to predict the time-dependant settlement are based mainly on instantaneous loading condition. In this paper, the settlement curve under linearly loading condition, which is suitable for building and embankment projects, is mathematically proved to be “S” shaped. Subsequently, a new model, the Poison model, is raised to predict the settlement, and the method of parameter solution is also introduced. Finally, several problems about the Poisson prediction model are discussed.     

Black band disease as a possible factor of the coral decline at the northern reef-flat of Yongxing Island,South China Sea

Black band disease(BBD),characterized by the Cyanobacterial dominated pathogenic consortium,is thought to play a key role in the global decline of the coral reef ecosystems.The present paper originally documents a case of BBD from Yongxing Island(Xisha Islands,South China Sea),and further probes the reasons of this abnormal phenomenon.Prior to 2007,corals at northern reef-flat of Yongxing Isand were in healthy growth.Catastrophic coral mortality occurred between 2007 and 2008.The 16S rRNA gene sequencing and PCR amplification,with universally conserved primers,were applied to detect the contagious bacterial community of the microbial mat.The results demonstrated that six bacterial divisions constituted the clone libraries derived from the BBD mat,and that Cyanobacteria are the most diversely represented group that inhabit BBD bacterial mats,despite the fact that species in five others divisions(α-Proteobacteria,γ-Proteobacteria,Bacteroidetes,Verrucomicrobia and Actinobacteria) are also consistently diverse within the BBD mats of diseased coral.Other factors such as coral bleaching,typhoons,ocean acidification and crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks,are not primarily responsible for the coral mortality within such a short time interval.The disaster expansion of BBD associated with Cyanobacterial blooms is a more likely mechanism impacting these coral reefs.Excessive human activity enhances the eutrophication of the marine water of the reefal region and may result in occurrence of the BBD.     

10年时间尺度气候预测

<正>10年时间尺度的气候预测,由于能够提供给政策制定者和有关部门与单位近期的气候变化预测,作为经济规划和社会生活安排等的参考,因此越来越受到重视。10年气候预测是气候科学中一个新的领域,一般预测方法采用:一是统计预测方法,根据前期气候变化特征,利用统计关系,计算预测未来10年的气候变化;二是动力模式预测方法,利用全球或区域气候模式,在一定初边条件和外强迫作用下,预测未来10年的气候变化;三是动力加统计     

Investigation on strength and stability of jointed rock mass using three‐dimensional numerical manifold method

This paper proposes a numerical model for jointed rock masses within the 3‐D numerical manifold method (NMM) framework equipped with a customized contact algorithm. The strength of rock sample containing a few sets of discontinuities is first investigated. The results of models with simple geometries are compared with the available analytical solutions to verify the developed computer code, whereas models with complex geometries are simulated to better understand the fundamental behavior and failure mechanism of jointed rock mass. Furthermore, the stability of jointed rock mass in an underground excavation is studied, where rock failure process is determined by the 3‐D NMM simulation. The simulation results provide valuable guidance on excavation process design and stabilization design in rock engineering practice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.