Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960–2013 in Hunan Province,central south China

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960–2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960–1986 and 1987–2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide significant power at the 4-year period, which are mainly found during 1970–1980 and after 1992.     

基于不同参数化方案的一次梅雨锋暴雨过程的集合预报试验

针对WRF模式中各非绝热物理过程,选用不同的参数化方案,对2009年6月29—30日一次梅雨锋暴雨过程做24 h降水预报的敏感性试验,并组成18个成员做物理集合预报,分析了实况与模拟的24 h降水量及其TS评分和离散度。结果表明,WRF模式的物理集合预报可成功模拟出3个暴雨中心的位置及强度;选用Lin et al微物理方案、MRF行星边界层方案和Betts-Miller-Janjic积云对流方案对湖北省西南部地区暴雨中心的位置及强度的模拟最好;3个暴雨中心均对应于离散度的大值中心,在降水较强时段其离散度也较大;不同集合成员在某时段预报的降水量可较好体现该时段的降水概率,而由物理集合预报得到的逐时降水量则可为定时降水预报提供依据。     

Interannual variability of the South Pacific Ocean in observations and simulated by the NCEP Climate Forecast System,version 2

The mechanism of the South Pacific Ocean Dipole (SPOD) mode is examined, using a 50-year simulation of the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and 50-year observation-based ocean–atmosphere analyses (1961–2010). It is shown that the SPOD, a sea surface temperatures (SST) seesaw between the subtropics and extratropics, is the dominant mode of the interannual variability in the South Pacific in both observations and CFSv2 simulation. CFSv2 also reproduces the seasonal phase-locking of the observed SPOD, with the anomaly pattern developing in austral spring, peaking in summer, and decaying in autumn. Composite analyses based on both observational and model data suggest that in the warm phase of SPOD, positive SST anomaly (SSTA) is initiated by weakened westerly winds over the central South Pacific in austral spring, which suppress the surface evaporative heat loss and reduce the oceanic mixed layer depth, both contributing to the SST warming. The wind-SST-mixed layer anomalies then evolve coherently over the next two seasons while the cold SSTA develops to the north. The wind perturbations are in turn a response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which forces an atmospheric planetary wave train, the Pacific-South American pattern, emanating from an anomalous heat source in the tropical western Pacific. Moreover, SPOD is significantly correlated with the southern annular mode (SAM) while the latter is also significantly correlated with the ENSO index. This suggests that ENSO’s influence on the SPOD may be partially conveyed through SAM.     

亚洲夏季风结构和变动与大气运动流场的斜压和正压特征:正压模分析

使用ＥＣＭＷＦ１９８０—１９８６年７ａ格点资料对大气运动的正压模进行了分析。指出：对流层中大气正压运动流场显示的副热带高压带仅能反映出行星风带的季节性移动；与亚洲夏季风有关且反映季风局地性的则是副热带高压带南侧的东风带上的波状扰动；东风带上的经向风分量存在着纬向传播且传播方向和扰动幅度与印度、东亚季风子系统有关；随着北半球夏季的到来，亚洲季风区大气运动的斜压模有较大的增长且斜压运动动能占气柱内整层平均总动能的绝大部分，而在赤道附近的其他经度上则是正压运动动能的成分明显增长。     

基于审查回归模型的公众气象服务支付意愿影响因素分析——以无锡、武汉和西安为例

采用审查回归模型,分别选取了中国东、中、西部的三个典型城市无锡、武汉和西安,计算了三城市受访者的支付意愿值,并对其影响因素进行了分析.结果表明:(1)支付意愿值与地区经济发展水平直接相关.无锡、武汉和西安受访者的支付意愿分别为21.68,17.15和10.07元/年;(2)年龄越长者,由于其天气知识更丰富、日常消费较节...     

科学工作流技术及在天文研究中的应用探讨

近几年来虚拟天文台技术的发展极为迅速,各国虚拟天文台研究相继启动,一系列虚拟天文台标准被提出并投入应用,有效地推动了信息技术在天文研究中的应用。科学工作流技术作为高性能计算与虚拟天文台中的关键技术,一直是研究的重点。但长期以来,受到业务工作流技术的影响,科学工作流的具体功能与作用,一直不被广大天文工作者理解和重视,限制了科学工作流的推广与应用。对科学工作流进行了深入分析,介绍了其基本功能和业务模型,详细比较了与业务工作流的差异。最后讨论了科学工作流在天文研究中的应用方法,对科学工作流的发展进行了展望。     

2021年中国龙卷活动及灾情特征

2021年中国经确认的龙卷天气过程有39次,总计58个龙卷,其中EF2级或以上强度龙卷数量16个,EF3级龙卷6个,EF2级和EF3级龙卷数量明显多于2004—2013年的龙卷记录年平均值.龙卷发生在4—10月,其中7月最多.龙卷共导致23人死亡、470多人受伤.龙卷的地理分布呈现出北多南少的特征.有55个龙卷为西风带...     

川西坳陷平落坝构造富钾卤水成因探讨

川西坳陷平落坝构造区是我国目前发现的深层海相碳酸盐岩地层中钾离子浓度最高的构造区,同时伴有B,Br,I,Li等多种元素。从平落4井于20世纪90年代初发现富钾卤水以来,研究人员对富钾卤水的成因先后提出了多种认识,主要认为富钾卤水为原生海水沉积变质作用形成。然而,近年来研究发现有很多无法用沉积变质说解释的现象。为此,在研究过程中,不但追踪卤水中溶剂(水)的来源,还关注卤水中溶质的来源,得出了川西坳陷平落坝构造区富钾卤水属于多来源、多期次成因的结论。研究认为:①卤水中水的来源与古海水和成岩作用中含水矿物脱水有关;卤水中钾具有多源多期次成因特点,主要与原始海水浓缩有关,其次与含钾矿物的溶解有关,同时与二叠纪玄武岩、三叠纪绿豆岩及深部流体活动有关。②富钾卤水的成因模式为:膏盐盆地是富钾卤水形成的基础条件;断层是富钾卤水运移的主要通道;夹持在膏盐岩层之间的碳酸盐岩层是富钾卤水的良好储钾层;裂隙和孔洞是富钾卤水储集的主要空间;构造高点是富钾卤水主要储集场所;温度是富钾卤水品位高低的重要因素;厚度大的膏盐岩层是富钾卤水保存的可靠屏障。     

楔形构造在山前冲断构造位移量消减中的作用

介于复活的天山造山带与稳定的准噶尔克拉通之间的准噶尔盆地南缘前陆冲断带,是印度板块与欧亚大陆碰撞的远距离效应产物,也是新近纪以来青藏高原隆升并向北推挤的直接结果。前陆冲断带吸收了来自造山带的水平缩短构造位移量后,克拉通一侧构造趋于稳定。准噶尔盆地南缘与世界上多数前陆冲断带构造地质特征相似,通过区域地震剖面的精细构造几何学和运动学解析,发现其中的楔形构造非常典型,是前陆冲断带内部冲断构造位移量消减的主要方式之一,控制着前陆冲断带分布范围和变形方式。准噶尔盆地南缘构造变形主要由南侧的天山造山带向北逆掩冲断,但是大部分冲断构造位移量是通过楔形构造反向传递后消减。紧邻天山北麓的齐古-喀拉扎-昌吉等构造带,山前深部的楔形体沿侏罗系西山窑组煤层向北扩展过程中,部分位移量沿构造楔顶部的反冲断层向南消减,并切割上覆地层形成第一排背斜带,另一部分位移量则继续向北传递,在断坡位置引发褶皱变形,形成霍-玛-吐第二排构造带和安集海-呼图壁第三排背斜带。准噶尔盆地南缘第二、三排构造带中-新生界内部发育多个小型的构造楔型体,这些互相叠置的楔型构造横向延伸不大,加大了构造变形的复杂性和构造圈闭识别的难度。     

电感耦合等离子体质谱法对白钨矿中稀土元素的准确测定——以云南麻栗坡南秧田白钨矿床的成因探讨为例

通过建立的高分辨电感耦合等离子体质谱测定稀土元素( REEs)的分析方法,准确测定出麻栗坡南秧田白钨矿床两类不同矿体的围岩和矿石中稀土元素的含量,方法的灵敏度高,检出限低,精密度和准确度均非常满意.通过对稀土元素地球化学特征的研究,表明存在两种不同成因的白钨矿,一为与围岩同时沉积形成的白钨矿,在变质作用条件下形成了矽卡岩型白钨矿;二为后期热液携带来的具有较高稀土含量的石英脉型白钨矿.前者具有轻稀土元素富集、重稀土亏损、中等程度的Eu、Ce负异常等特征,与沉积环境关系密切,推测是海底火山喷发(喷流)沉积变质作用的产物;后者具有较低的稀土总量∑REEs以及显著的Eu正异常特征,表现出较高的稀土分馏特性,为后期热液作用形成,并对先期矿体有叠加改造作用,使矿化更加富集.