CIECIA: A new climate change integrated assessment model and its assessments of global carbon abatement schemes

From the perspective of global economic general equilibrium, this study developed a new climate change IAM named CIECIA. The economic core of this IAM is a multi-country-sector general equilibrium model. The endogenous technology progress mode is introduced into CIECIA. Based on this model, three assessment principles of the global cooperating abatement scheme are proposed, including effectiveness, feasibility, and fairness. This study simulated and analyzed six types of primary global cooperating abatement schemes. The simulated results indicate that all of the selected schemes can satisfy the climate mitigation targets by 2100. Thus, they are all effective schemes. However, the schemes have quite different feasibilities and fairness. The Stern Scheme benefits the developed countries, but is unfair to the developing countries. The Nordhaus Scheme promotes the developments of the developing countries. However, it leads to negative impacts on the interests of the developed countries. The principle of convergence on accumulated carbon emissions per capita and the principle of convergence on carbon emissions per capita benefit the economic developments of the middle and low developing countries most. However, these two types of schemes cause tremendous losses to the main economic entities in the world including China. The Pareto Improvement Scheme, which was developed from the Global Economic Growth Scheme, balances the fairness and feasibility in the carbon abatement process and realizes the Pareto improvement of accumulated utilities in all the participating countries. Thus, the Pareto Improvement Scheme is the most reasonable global cooperating carbon abatement scheme.     

干旱沙区生物土壤结皮覆盖土壤CO2通量对脉冲式降雨的响应

水分是干旱区生态过程中主要限制因子,降水可通过改变土壤的干湿状况直接影响土壤的生态过程,继而引起土壤碳库的变化。生物土壤结皮作为干旱区主要的地表覆盖物,其自身不但可以进行呼吸作用,还能充分利用有限的水分通过光合作用固碳,改变土壤圈与大气圈之间的碳交换通量。通过模拟0、2、5、8、15 mm降雨,利用红外气体分析仪,对腾格里沙漠东南缘人工固沙植被区主要的生物土壤结皮覆盖土壤净CO₂通量进行了原位测定,探讨生物土壤结皮覆盖土壤CO₂释放和光合固定CO₂(吸收)共同作用下的土壤净CO₂通量对模降雨的响应特征。结果表明:(1)降雨会迅速激发生物土壤结皮覆盖土壤CO₂释放,降雨激发CO₂释放速率和有效时间取决于降雨量,降雨量越高,激发程度越低,激增的生物土壤结皮覆盖土壤CO₂释放(源)效应有效时间随降雨量的增加而延长;降雨激发的土壤碳释放总量随着降雨量的增加显著增加,且藓类结皮覆盖土壤碳释放总量显著高于藻类结皮(P<0.05)。(2)降雨引起生物土壤结皮覆盖土壤CO₂吸收速率在初期呈单峰变化,后逐渐回归到降雨前的水平,随降雨量的增加,CO₂吸收的效应的时间越长,峰值越高;降雨量越高,生物土壤结皮光合碳固定量越多,当降雨量增加到15 mm时,藻类结皮光合碳固定量显著低于8 mm时的碳固定量;降雨量<5 mm时,藓类结皮光合碳固定量显著低于藻类结皮(P<0.05),≥5 mm时,藓类结皮光合碳固定量显著高于藻类结皮(P<0.05)。(3)干旱荒漠地区生物土壤结皮覆盖土壤,在无降雨的干旱期表现为较低水平的净碳排放效应,不同程度降雨的初期阶段都有短暂的增加土壤碳的汇效应,且碳汇效应的时间随降雨量的增加而延长;适度的降雨会降低长期干旱藻类结皮覆盖土壤向大气的碳排放量,而过高或过低的降雨都会不同程度地增加藻类结皮覆盖土壤向大气的碳排放,降低土壤碳的储量。不论降雨量大小,降雨都会增加藓类结皮覆盖土壤更多碳向大气排放,但随着降雨量的增加,源效应逐渐减弱。降雨量≤8 mm时,藓类结皮覆盖土壤净碳排放总量显著高于藻类结皮(P<0.05),当降雨量>8 mm时,藓类结皮覆盖土壤净碳排放量显著低于藻类结皮覆盖土壤(P<0.05)。因此,干旱区在估算生物土壤结皮覆盖土壤与大气碳交换对降雨的响应规律时,应该充分考虑降雨量大小对生物土壤结皮碳固定量和土壤碳释放组分的效应,明确降雨事件大小对不同类型生物土壤结皮覆盖土壤与大气之间碳交换的作用。     

Influence of polymer binder on the physical properties and stability of engineering spoil on a slope

An experiment was performed to study the influence of polymer binders on the physical properties,and stability against a simulated rainfall,of a slope consisting of engineering spoil.Results showed that low polymer binder concentrations(≤500g/m3) could enhance the air permeability and moisture-retaining capacity of the engineering spoil;however,adding more polymer binder made the hardness of the engineering spoil increase and then decline.With the increase of polymer binder concentrations,the surface(0-5cm) permeability of the engineering spoil decreased but the permeability of the lower layers(5-10cm) increased.Polymer binders might reduce runoff and sediment,but the effect becomes weaker with the increase of rainfall.The results of this study have significance for engineering practices.Further experiments are needed to study the effects of binders under other conditions,such as natural rainfall,different slopes,different rock types,different degrees and spoil weathering and different added material,and the chemical interaction between soil and polymer binders.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment to slight damage based on experimental modal parameters

The aim of this paper is to adjust behaviour models for each class of structure for vulnerability assessment by using ambient vibration. A simple model based on frequencies, mode shapes and damping, taken from ambient vibrations, allows computation of the response of the structures and comparison of inter‐storey drifts with the limits found in the literature for the slight damage grade, considered here as the limit of elastic behaviour. Two complete methodologies for building fragility curves are proposed: (1) using a multi‐degree of freedom system including higher modes and full seismic ground‐motion and (2) using a single‐degree of freedom model considering the fundamental mode f₀ of the structure and ground‐motion displacement response spectra S_D(f₀). These two methods were applied to the city of Grenoble, where 60 buildings were studied. Fragility curves for slight damage were derived for the various masonry and reinforced concrete classes of buildings. A site‐specific earthquake scenario, taking into account local site conditions, was considered, corresponding to an M_L = 5.5 earthquake at a distance of 15 km. The results show the benefits of using experimental models to reduce variability of the slight damage fragility curve. Moreover, by introducing the experimental modal model of the buildings, it is possible to improve seismic risk assessment at an overall scale (the city) or a local scale (the building) for the first damage grade (slight damage). This level of damage, of great interest for moderate seismic‐prone regions, may contribute to the seismic loss assessment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

海南井水位对热带气旋响应特征分析

2001——2010年, 海南省地下流体观测台网记录到多次热带气旋引起的井水位抖动现象．本文以2003年7月21日强热带气旋ldquo;天鹅rdquo;和2005年9月27日台风ldquo;达维rdquo;为例, 系统地研究了这两次热带气旋引起的水位抖动变化的特征．结果表明, 经过高通滤波, 水位抖动变化图像更加明显;通过频谱分析,得知热带气旋引起的水位抖动周期为100——101 min;井水位抖动的起始时间、 幅度最大值的时间与热带气旋通过海南岛陆的时间一致, 且与热带气旋的结构特点、发展和运动过程密切相关,与井孔自身的井-含水层系统对微动态信息响应的能力也有关系．分析认为,气压振荡式升降变化和摩擦是热带气旋引起水位抖动的原因．      

Radon Transform Methods and Their Applications in Mapping Mantle Reflectivity Structure

This paper reviews the fundamentals of Radon-based methods using examples from global seismic applications. By exploiting the move-out or curvature of signal of interest, Least-squares and High-resolution Radon transform methods can effectively eliminate random or correlated noise, enhance signal clarity, and simultaneously constrain travel time and ray angles. The inverse formulation of the Radon transform has the added benefits of phase isolation and spatial interpolation during data reconstruction. This study presents a ‘cookbook’ for Radon-based methods in analyzing shear wave bottom-side reflections from mantle interfaces, also know as SS precursors. We demonstrate that accurate and flexible joint Radon- and frequency-domain approaches are particularly effective in resolving the presence and depth of known and postulated mantle reflectors.     

大华北地区1900年以来Ms≥6．0地震的空间分布及迁移特征研究

着重对大华北地区1900年以来Ms≥6．0地震空间分布图像进行分析研究,探讨其空间迁移特征。经研究发现,大华北地区强震活动在空间分布上大体可分为两大区域。1906～1976年地震活动主要分布在大华北中部的主体地区,且强震活动具有成带性由南向北迁移,活动范围逐渐缩小,活动强度逐渐增强的特征,最终以1976年唐山大地震为标志,结束了主体地区的强震活动。1976年以后地震活动则转移到大华北西北、东南两个边缘地区,强震活动明显减弱。这一规律性现象的发现,对于分析该地区今后地震活动有着一定的参考意义,亦为研究强震迁移规律提供了新的认识。     

地学长江计划安徽实验中低频可控震源地震波信号提取方法评估

可控震源的激发过程精确可控、可重复性高。本文评估了重复激发形成的多道记录的信号增强方法,包括叠加方法和有效信号直接分离方法。相比线性叠加,加权叠加充分利用了有效信号的一致性,能进一步压制噪声,提高叠加记录的信噪比。相比时间域相位加权叠加,Semblance加权叠加更加稳定。时频域相位加权叠加能在时频域压制随机分散分布的噪声信号,叠加信号更加清晰。本文中,采用标准SVD分离获得的信号同线性叠加结果类似。本文利用密集分布的临时台阵评价地学长江计划安徽实验中低频可控震源在庐江第2激发点的激发效果。对比不同的处理流程发现,先互相关检测信号再进行时频域相位加权叠加能够取得最佳的处理效果,通过200多次重复激发,可以在50km范围内提取到较清晰的有效信号。