Model Averaging Techniques for Quantifying Conceptual Model Uncertainty

In recent years a growing understanding has emerged regarding the need to expand the modeling paradigm to include conceptual model uncertainty for groundwater models. Conceptual model uncertainty is typically addressed by formulating alternative model conceptualizations and assessing their relative likelihoods using statistical model averaging approaches. Several model averaging techniques and likelihood measures have been proposed in the recent literature for this purpose with two broad categories—Monte Carlo-based techniques such as Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation or GLUE (Beven and Binley 1992) and criterion-based techniques that use metrics such as the Bayesian and Kashyap Information Criteria (e.g., the Maximum Likelihood Bayesian Model Averaging or MLBMA approach proposed by Neuman 2003) and Akaike Information Criterion-based model averaging (AICMA) (Poeter and Anderson 2005). These different techniques can often lead to significantly different relative model weights and ranks because of differences in the underlying statistical assumptions about the nature of model uncertainty. This paper provides a comparative assessment of the four model averaging techniques (GLUE, MLBMA with KIC, MLBMA with BIC, and AIC-based model averaging) mentioned above for the purpose of quantifying the impacts of model uncertainty on groundwater model predictions. Pros and cons of each model averaging technique are examined from a practitioner's perspective using two groundwater modeling case studies. Recommendations are provided regarding the use of these techniques in groundwater modeling practice.     

Geochronology and Genesis of the Tiegelongnan Porphyry Cu(Au) Deposit in Tibet: Evidence from U–Pb,Re–Os Dating and Hf,S, and H–O Isotopes

The Tiegelongnan Cu (Au) deposit is the largest copper deposit newly discovered in the Bangong–Nujiang metallogenic belt. The deposit has a clear alteration zoning consisting of, from core to margin, potassic to propylitic, superimposed by phyllic and advanced argillic alteration. The shallow part of the deposit consists of a high sulphidation‐state overprint, mainly comprising disseminated pyrite and Cu–S minerals such as bornite, covellite, digenite, and enargite. At depth porphyry‐type mineralization mainly comprises disseminated chalcopyrite, bornite, pyrite, and a minor vein molybdenite. Mineralization is disseminated and associated with veins contained within the porphyry intrusions and their surrounding rocks. The zircon U–Pb ages of the mineralized diorite porphyry and granodiorite porphyry are 123.1 ± 1.7 Ma (2σ) and 121.5 ± 1.5 Ma (2σ), respectively. The molybdenite Re–Os age is 121.2 ± 1.2 Ma, suggesting that mineralization was closely associated with magmatism. Andesite lava (zircon U–Pb age of 111.7 ± 1.6 Ma, 2σ) overlies the ore‐bodies and is the product of post‐mineralization volcanic activity that played a critical role in preserving the ore‐bodies. Values of ?4.6 ‰ to + 0.8 ‰ δ³⁴S for the metal sulfides (mean ? 1.55 ‰) suggest that S mainly has a deep magmatic source. The H and O isotopic composition is (δD = ?87 ‰ to ?64 ‰; δ¹⁸O_H2O = 5.5 ‰ to 9.0 ‰), indicating that the ore‐forming fluids are mostly magmatic‐hydrothermal, possibly mixed with a small amount of meteoric water. The zircon ε_Hf(t) of the diorite porphyry is 3.7 to 8.3, and the granodiorite porphyry is 1.8 to 7.5. Molybdenite has a high Re from 382.2 × 10^?6 to 1600 × 10^?6. Re and Hf isotope composition show that Tiegelongnan has some mantle source, maybe the juvenile lower crust from crust–mantle mixed source. Metallogenesis of the Tiegelongnan giant porphyry system was associated with intermediate to acidic magma in the Early Cretaceous (~120 Ma). The magma provenance of the Tiegelongnan deposit has some mantle‐derived composition, possibly mixed with the crust‐derived materials.     

B2114+022: a distant radio source gravitationally lensed by a starburst galaxy

We have discovered a radio source (B2114+022) with a unique structure during the course of the JVAS gravitational lens survey. VLA, MERLIN, VLBA and MERLIN+EVN radio maps reveal four compact components, in a configuration unlike that of any known lens system, or, for that matter, any of the ∼15 000 radio sources in the JVAS and CLASS surveys. Three of the components are within 0.3 arcsec of each other while the fourth is separated from the group by 2.4 arcsec. The widest separation pair of components have similar radio structures and spectra. The other pair also have similar properties. This latter pair have spectra which peak at ∼5 GHz. Their surface brightnesses are much lower than expected for synchrotron self-absorbed components.
Ground-based and Hubble Space Telescope optical observations show two galaxies ( z =0.3157 and 0.5883) separated by 1.25 arcsec. The lower redshift galaxy has a post-starburst spectrum and lies close to, but not coincident with, the compact group of three radio components. No optical or infrared emission is detected from any of the radio components down to I =25 and H =23 . We argue that the most likely explanation of the B2114+022 system is that the post-starburst galaxy, assisted by the second galaxy, lenses a distant radio source producing the two wide-separation images. The other two radio components are then associated with the post-starburst galaxy. The combination of the angular sizes of these components, their radio spectra and their location with respect to their host galaxy still remains puzzling.     

From Classical To Statistical Ocean Dynamics

Traditional ocean modeling treats fields resolved on the model grid according to the classical dynamics of continua. Variability on smaller scales is included through sundry eddy viscosities, mixing coefficients and other schemes. In this paper we develop an alternative approach based on statistical dynamics. First, we recognize that we treat probabilities of flows, not the flows themselves. Modeled dependent variables are the moments (expectations) of the probabilities of possible flows. Second, we address the challenge to obtain the equations of motion for the moments of probable flows rather than the (traditional) equations for explicit flows. For linear terms and on larger resolved scales, the statistical equations agree with classical dynamics where those of traditional modeling works well. Differences arise where traditional modeling would relegate unresolved motion to eddy viscosity, etc.. Instead, changes of entropy (<-log P> over the probability distribution of possible flows) with respect to the modeled moments act as forcings upon those moments. In this way we obtain a consistent framework for specifying the terms which, traditionally, represent subgridscale effects. Although these statistical equations are close to the classical equations in many ways, important differences are also evident; here, two phenomena are described where the results differ. We consider eddies interacting with bottom topography. It is seen that traditional eddy viscosity and/or topographic drag, which would reduce large scale flows toward rest, are wrong. The second law of thermodynamics is violated; the arrow of time is running backwards! From statistical dynamics, approximate corrections are obtained, yielding a practical improvement to the fidelity of ocean models. Another phenomenon occurs at much smaller scales in the turbulent mixing of heat and salt. Even when both heat and salt are stably stratifying, their rates of turbulent transfer should differ. This suggests a further model improvement.     

The Characteristics and Genesis of the Massive Nitrate Deposits in the Turpan-Hami Basin of Xinjiang,China

正Massive nitrate deposits have been discovered in the Turpan-Hami basin in northwestern China.Previously,large ore grade nitrate minerals were thought only to exist in the Atacama Desert in northern Chile.Estimates of the     

An example of a highly bioturbated,storm‐influenced shoreface deposit: Upper Jurassic Ula Formation,Norwegian North Sea

Integrated ichnological and sedimentological analyses of core samples from the Upper Jurassic Ula Formation in the Norwegian Central Graben were undertaken to quantify the influence of storm waves on sedimentation. Two main facies associations (offshore and shoreface) that form a progradational coarsening upward succession are recognizable within the cores. The offshore deposits are characterized by massive to finely laminated mudstones and fine‐grained sandstones, within a moderately to highly bioturbated complex. The trace fossil assemblage is dominated by deposit‐feeding structures (for example, Planolites, Phycosiphon and Rosselia) and constitutes an expression of the proximal Zoophycos to distal Cruziana ichnofacies. The absence of grazing behaviours and dominance of deposit‐feeding ichnofossils is a reflection of the increased wave energies present (i.e. storm‐generated currents) within an offshore setting. The shoreface succession is represented by highly bioturbated fine‐grained to medium‐grained sandstones, with intervals of planar and trough cross‐bedding, thin pebble lags and bivalve‐rich shell layers. The ichnofossil assemblage, forming part of the Skolithos ichnofacies, is dominated by higher energy Ophiomorpha nodosa ichnofossils and lower energy Ophiomorpha irregulaire and Siphonichnus ichnofossils. The presence of sporadic wave‐generated sedimentary structures and variability in ichnofossil diversity and abundance attests to the influence of storm‐generated currents during deposition. As a whole, the Ula Formation strongly reflects the influence of storm deposits on sediment deposition; consequently, storm‐influenced shoreface most accurately describes these depositional environments.     

Investigation of an early Pleistocene marine osmium isotope record from the eastern equatorial Pacific

Osmium isotope composition (¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os) and concentrations of Os, Ir and Pt are reported for an early Pleistocene section from the ODP Site 849 in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Using the data obtained in this study, the contributions from detrital and extraterrestrial particulate matter to Os concentration and ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os of sediment are estimated. Our calculations show that detrital contributions to sedimentary Os are too small (<2%) to significantly shift measured bulk sediment ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os away from seawater values. A moderate but significant negative correlation between ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os and ³He/¹⁸⁸Os indicate that the average particulate extraterrestrial Os flux to this site is 1.21 ± 0.47 pg cm⁻² kyr⁻¹, which constitutes ?3% of total Os burial flux. The estimates of detrital and extraterrestrial Os are used to calculate the seawater ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os in the early Pleistocene. The most notable features of this early Pleistocene ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os record are: (1) glacial-interglacial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os differences are insignificant within errors of estimates, (2) glacial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os values are higher compared to those reported for the late Pleistocene glacials. Comparison of ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os values at Site 849 to the late Pleistocene records suggests that average seawater ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os change has been modest (∼5%) since the early Pleistocene. Assuming that ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os difference between the glacial periods of the late and the early Pleistocene results solely from temperature dependence of weathering rates, it has been calculated that average surface temperature during the late Pleistocene glacials was 0.8 ± 0.2 °C lower than glacials in the early Pleistocene. This inference is consistent with temperature estimates based on a recent study of pCO₂ reconstruction in the Pleistocene. This observation based on limited studies of marine ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os records seems to suggest that temperature played an important role in influencing chemical weathering during the Pleistocene glacials. However, more studies are needed to confirm if this temperature-weathering feedback was operational throughout the Pleistocene. A significant down core Ir-³He co-variation coupled with similar burial fluxes of Ir at Site 849 and at LL44 GPC-3 in the north Pacific point to the utility of Ir concentration as a point paleoflux tracer. However, a twofold difference in Ir burial fluxes between the eastern and the western equatorial Pacific suggests that calibration in space and time is required to use Ir concentration as a robust indicator of paleoflux through time. Significant co-variation of concentrations of Os and total alkenone during the glacials coupled with lighter δ¹³C of benthic foraminifera indicates that productivity and carbon burial played a dominant control on scavenging of Os at Site 849. In a broader context, this data set encourages future investigation of response of PGE behavior to paleoceanographic processes.