How Population Decline Can Impact Genetic Diversity: a Case Study of Eelgrass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Zostera marina</Emphasis>) in Morro Bay,California

Seagrass populations are in decline worldwide. Eelgrass (Zostera marina L.), one of California’s native seagrasses, is no exception to this trend. In the last 8 years, the estuary in Morro Bay, California, has lost 95% of its eelgrass. Population bottlenecks like this one often result in severe reductions in genetic diversity; however, this is not always the case. The decline of eelgrass in Morro Bay provides an opportunity to better understand the effects of population decline on population genetics. Furthermore, the failure of recent restoration efforts necessitates a better understanding of the genetic underpinnings of the population. Previous research on eelgrass in California has demonstrated a link between population genetic diversity and eelgrass bed health, ecosystem functioning, and resilience to disturbance and extreme climatic events. The genetic diversity and population structure of Morro Bay eelgrass have not been assessed until this study. We also compare Morro Bay eelgrass to Bodega Bay eelgrass in Northern California. We conducted fragment length analysis of nine microsatellite loci on 133 Morro Bay samples, and 20 Bodega Bay samples. We found no population differentiation between the remaining beds in Morro Bay and no difference among samples growing at different tidal depths. Comparisons with Bodega Bay revealed that Morro Bay eelgrass contains three first-generation migrants from the north, but Morro Bay remains considerably genetically differentiated from Bodega Bay. Despite the precipitous loss of eelgrass in Morro Bay between 2008 and 2017, genetic diversity remains relatively high and comparable to other populations on the west coast.     

A reindeer herder's perspective on caribou, weather and socio-economic change on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Non-climate variables shape vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change. Here, we describe how recent environmental and socio-economic developments have transformed reindeer herding and perceptions of weather on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The reindeer industry has shrunk considerably since the early 1990s, when the winter range of the Western Arctic Caribou Herd expanded, and over 17 000 reindeer mixed with migrating caribou and left the region. Socio-economic and environmental repercussions make the continuation of herding tenuous, and erode the ability of herders to cope with weather variability, among other perturbations. We present a case study of one herder's annual cycle, and juxtapose physical drivers of herding activities, including weather-station and herder observations of local weather variability, with socio-economic factors. There is an increased urgency to access and monitor reindeer with caribou present, but herding plans are constrained by lower economic returns and the need to spend more time in non-herding jobs. Although weather is a greater concern now for immediate herd access, standard weather data are largely irrelevant to the mechanics of herding, whereas variables pertaining to the timing of biotic events (e.g., synchrony of spring break-up and calving) and visibility are attributed to lost herding opportunities. Short-term responses to weather conditions stem from more long-term vulnerability associated with caribou presence, reduced herd size, difficulties affording snowmobile maintenance or crew assistance, and dwindling market opportunities. We emphasize the environmental and socio-economic interactions that affect vulnerability and adaptive capacity for modern herding.     

An Evaluation of Internet Versus Paper‐based Methods for Public Participation Geographic Information Systems (PPGIS)

Public participation geographic information systems (PPGIS) are an increasingly important tool for collecting spatial information about the social attributes of place. The availability of Internet‐based options for implementing PPGIS presents new opportunities for increased efficiency and new modes of access. Here we used a mixed‐mode approach to evaluate paper versus Internet mapping methods for the same PPGIS survey in Wyoming. We compared participant characteristics, mapping participation, and the spatial distribution of mapped attributes between participants who responded to the paper versus Internet option. The response rate for those who completed the paper version of the survey was nearly 2.5 times the response rate of the Internet version. Paper participants also mapped significantly more places than did Internet participants (43 vs. 18). Internet participants tended to be younger, more likely to have a college degree, and had lived in the region for less time than paper participants. For all but one attribute there was no difference in the spatial distribution of places mapped between Internet and paper methods. Using a paper‐based PPGIS survey resulted in a higher response rate, reduced participant bias, and greater mapping participation. However, survey mode did not influence the spatial distribution of the PPGIS data.     

Shallow plumbing systems for small-volume basaltic volcanoes

Eruptive dynamics in basaltic volcanoes are controlled, in part, by the conduit geometry. However, uncertainties in conduit shape and dike-to-conduit transition geometry have limited our predictive capability for hazards assessments. We characterize the subvolcanic geometry of small-volume basaltic volcanoes (magmatic volatile-driven eruptions, 0.1 to 0.5 km³) based on a synthesis of field studies of five basaltic volcanoes exposed to varying degrees by erosion and exhibiting feeder dikes, conduits, and vent areas ≤250 m depth. Study areas include East Grants Ridge (New Mexico, USA), Basalt Ridge, East Basalt Ridge, Paiute Ridge, and Southeast Crater Flat (Nevada, USA). Basaltic feeder dikes 250 to 100 m deep have typical widths of 4–12 m, with smooth host-rock contacts (rhyolite tuff). At depths less than 100 m, heterogeneities in the host rock form preferential pathways for small dike splays and sills, resulting in a 30-m effective width at 50 m depth. The development of a complex conduit at depths less than 70 m is reflected in bifurcating dikes and brecciation and incorporation of the country rock. The overall zone of effect at depths less than 50 m is ≤110 m wide (220 m elongated along the feeder dike). Based on comparisons with theoretical conduit flow models, the width of the feeder dike at depths from 250 to 500 m is expected to range from 1 to 10 m and is expected to decrease to about 1–2 m at depths greater than 500 m. The flaring shape of the observed feeder systems is similar to results of theoretical modeling using lithostatic pressure-balanced flow conditions. Sizes of observed conduits differ from modeled dimensions by up to a factor of 10 in the shallow subsurface (<50 m depth), but at depths greater than 100 m the difference is a factor of 2 to 4. This difference is primarily due to the fact that observed eroded conduits record the superimposed effects of multiple eruptive events, while theoretical model results define dimensions necessary for a single, steady eruption phase. The complex details of magma-host rock interactions observed at the study areas (contact welding, brecciation, bifurcating dikes and sills, and stoping) represent the mechanisms by which the lithostatic pressure-balanced geometry is attained. The similarity in the normalized shapes of theoretical and observed conduits demonstrates the appropriateness of the pressure-balanced modeling approach, consistent with the conclusions of Wilson and Head (J Geophys Res 86:2971–3001, 1981) for this type of volcano.     

The influence of sampling design on spatial data quality in a geographic citizen science project

Geographic citizen science has much potential to assist in wildlife research and conservation, but the quality of observation data is a key concern. We examined the effects of sampling design on the quality of spatial data collected for a koala citizen science project in Australia. Data were collected from three samples—volunteers (n = 454), an Internet panel (n = 103), and landowners (n = 35)—to assess spatial data quality, a dimension of citizen science projects rarely considered. The locational accuracy of koala observations among the samples was similar when benchmarked against authoritative data (i.e., an expert‐derived koala distribution model), but there were differences in the quantity of data generated. Fewer koala location data were generated per participant by the Internet panel sample than the volunteer or landowner samples. Spatial preferences for land uses affecting koala conservation were also mapped, with landowners more likely to map locations for residential and tourism development and volunteers less likely. These spatial preferences have the potential to influence the social acceptability of future koala conservation proposals. With careful sampling design, both citizen observations and land use preferences can be included within the same project to augment scientific assessments and identify conservation opportunities and constraints.     

Stochastic Modeling of Groundwater Extractions over a Data-Sparse Region of Australia

Setting limit on groundwater extractions is important to ensure sustainable groundwater management. Lack of extraction data can affect interpretations of historical pressure changes, predictions of future impacts, accuracy of groundwater model calibration, and identification of sustainable management options. Yet, many groundwater extractions are unmetered. Therefore, there is a need for models that estimate extraction rates and quantify model outputs uncertainties arising due to a lack of data. This paper develops such a model within the Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) framework, using a case study of stock and domestic (SD) extractions in the Surat Cumulative Management Area, a predominantly cattle farming region in eastern Australia. Various types of extraction observations were used, ranging from metering to analytically-derived estimates. GLMs were developed and applied to estimate the property-level extraction amounts, where observation types were weighted by perceived relative accuracy, and well usage status. The primary variables found to affect property-level extraction rates were: yearly average temperature and rainfall, pasture, property area, and number of active wells; while variables most affecting well usage were well water electrical conductivity, spatial coordinates, and well age. Results were compared with analytical estimates of property-level extraction, illustrating uncertainties and potential biases across 20 hydrogeological units. Spatial patterns of mean extraction rates (and standard deviations) are presented. It is concluded that GLMs are well suited to the problem of extraction rate estimation and uncertainty analysis, and are ideal when model verification is supported by measurement of a random sample of properties.