Potential impact of albedo incorporation in boreal forest sector climate change policy effectiveness

Forests have an important role to play in climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration and wood supply. However, the lower albedo of mature forests compared to bare land implies that focusing only on GHG accounting may lead to biased estimates of forestry's total climatic impacts. An economic model with a high degree of detail of the Norwegian forestry and forest industries is used to simulate GHG fluxes and albedo impacts for the next decades. Albedo is incorporated in a carbon tax/subsidy scheme in the Norwegian forest sector using a partial, spatial equilibrium model. While a price of EU€100/tCO₂e that targets GHG fluxes only results in reduced harvests, the same price including albedo leads to harvest levels that are five times higher in the first five years, with 39% of the national productive forest land base being cleared. The results suggest that policies that only consider GHG fluxes and ignore changes in albedo will not lead to an optimal use of the forest sector for climate change mitigation.

Policy relevance

Bare land reflects a larger share of incoming solar energy than dense forest and thus has higher albedo. Earlier research has suggested that changes in albedo caused by management of boreal forest may be as important as carbon fluxes for the forest's overall global warming impacts. The presented analysis is the first attempt to link albedo to national-scale forest climate policies. A policy with subsidies to forest owners that generate carbon sequestration and taxes levied on carbon emissions leads to a reduced forest harvest. However, including albedo in the policy alongside carbon fluxes yields very different results, causing initial harvest levels to increase substantially. The inclusion of albedo impacts will make harvests more beneficial for climate change mitigation as compared to a carbon-only policy. Hence, it is likely that carbon policies that ignore albedo will not lead to optimal forest management for climate change mitigation.     

Damage to structures by pyroclastic flows and surges, inferred from nuclear weapons effects

In order to define the risk from explosive eruptions, one must constrain both the probability of explosive events and the effects, or consequences, of those events. This paper focuses on the effects of pyroclastic flows and surges (here termed ‘pyroclastic density currents', or PDCs) on buildings, infrastructure elements, and to some extent on vehicles. PDCs impart a lateral force to such structures in the form of dynamic pressure, which depends on the bulk density of the PDC (which in turn depends mainly on particle concentration) and its velocity. For reasonable ranges of particle concentration (10⁻³ to 0.5) and velocities (10 to 300 m/s), dynamic pressure on the upstream face of a structure ranges from 0.1 kPa to 10⁴ kPa. Lateral loads ranging up to about 100 kPa were produced during nuclear weapons tests in the 1940s and 1950s that were designed to study the effects of such loading on a variety of structures for civil defense and emergency response purposes in the event of nuclear war. Although considerable simplifications are involved, the data from these weapon tests provide useful analog information for understanding the effects of PDCs. I reviewed data from the nuclear tests, describing the expected damage from different loadings. Tables are provided that define the response of different structural elements (e.g., windows, framing, walls) and whole structures to loading in probabilistic terms, which in principle account for variations in construction quality, orientation, and other factors. Finally, damage documented from historical eruptions at Mt. Lamington (1951), Herculaneum (AD 79 Vesuvius eruption), and St. Pierre (1902 Mt. Pelee eruption) is reviewed. Damage patterns, combined with estimates of velocity, provide an independent estimate of particle concentration in the PDCs. Details of structural damage should be recorded and mapped around future eruptions in order to help refine this aspect of consequence analysis. Another fruitful approach would be to combine numerical simulations of eruption scenarios, which can produce simulated maps of dynamic pressure, with GIS-based data on structures for a given region; the result would be predictions of consequences that could be used for planning and emergency response training.     

Using δ15N in Fish Larvae as an Indicator of Watershed Sources of Anthropogenic Nitrogen: Response at Multiple Spatial Scales

There is growing interest in applying ??¹⁵N in biota as an indicator of anthropogenic nutrient inputs to coastal environments because changes in ??¹⁵N correlate to inputs of land-based nutrients. In complex coastal receiving waters, however, land-use effects on biota ??¹⁵N may be masked by local hydrologic processes, especially exchange with coastal waters of different geochemical character. We examined ??¹⁵N differences among larval fish, a novel biotic indicator, in coastal receiving waters at both among and within watershed scales. Our goal was to characterize how hydrologic processes within coastal river mouths and embayments mediate the effect of land-based N sources on larval fish ??¹⁵N. We sampled three Lake Superior river-embayment systems from watersheds that span a large population density gradient. Over all stations, mean fish ??¹⁵N ranged from 2.7??? to 10.8???. Within each system, we found a different pattern in ??¹⁵N across the river?Clake transition zone. Correlations between fish ??¹⁵N and water quality, particularly NH ₄ ⁺ and total nitrogen, were highly significant and corresponded to known differences in sewage waste water inputs. A multivariate model that included both watershed-based population density and NH ₄ ⁺ was found to provide the best fit to the ??¹⁵N data among a series of multi- and univariate candidate models. These results demonstrate that: (1) fish larvae ??¹⁵N responded at within watershed scales, and (2) within coastal receiving waters, fish larvae ??¹⁵N was related to waste water inputs at the watershed scale; however, expression at specific locations within a coastal system was strongly influenced by local hydrologic processes.     

Outflow of Pacific water from the Chukchi Sea to the Arctic Ocean

Pacific water exits the Chukchi Sea shelf through Barrow Canyon in the east and Herald Canyon in the west, forming an eastward-directed shelfbreak boundary current that flows into the Beaufort Sea. Here we summarize the transformation that the Pacific water undergoes in the two canyons, and describe the characteristics and variability of the resulting shelfbreak jet, using recently collected summertime hydrographic data and a year-long mooting data set. In both canyons the northward-flowing Pacific winter water switches from the western to the eastern flank of the canyon, interacting with the northward-flowing summer water. In Barrow canyon the vorticity structure of the current is altered, while in Herald canyon a new water mass mode is created. In both instances hydraulic effects are believed to be partly responsible for the observed changes. The shelfl）reak jet that forms from the canyon outflows has distinct seasonal configurations, from a bottom-intensified flow carrying cold, dense Pacific water in spring, to a surface-intensified current advecting warm, buoyant water in summer. The current also varies significantly on short timescales, from less than a day to a week. In fall and winter much of this mesoscale variability is driven by storm events, whose easterly winds reverse the current and cause upwelling. Different types of eddies are spawned from the current, which are characterized here using hydrographic and satellite data.     

A relation between magnetic field strength and temperature in sunspots

We present Stokes I Zeeman splitting measurements of sunspots using the highly sensitive (g = 3) Fe i line at = 1.5649 m. The splittings are compared with simultaneous intensity measurements in the adjacent continuum. The relation between magnetic field strength and temperature has a characteristic, nonlinear shape in all the spots studied. In the umbra, there is an approximately linear relation between B ² and T _b, consistent with magnetohydrostatic equilibrium in a nearly vertical field. A distinct flattening of the B ² vs T _brelationship in the inner penumbra may be due to changes in the lateral pressure balance as the magnetic field becomes more horizontal; spatially unresolved intensity inhomogeneities may also influence the observed relation.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. (AURA) under cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation.     

Differential UVB‐sensitivities of five New Zealand freshwater zooplankton species

Abstract

The ultraviolet (UV) sensitivity of five species of freshwater zooplankton (three Cladocera, two Copepoda) were investigated. The animals were exposed to varying levels of UV‐radiation in a sunshine‐simulator and the UV doses for 10 and 50% mortality (LD₁₀, LD₅₀) were estimated using a dose‐response model. To place these doses in context they were compared with modelled clear‐sky surface UV irradiances in New Zealand. The cladocerans Daphnia carinata and Ceriodaphnia dubia were sensitive to levels of UVB irradiance of LD₁₀ = 18–25 kJ m^?2 and LD₅₀ = 35–37 kJ m^?2. These sensitivities are consistent with published values for other cladocera. In contrast a third cladoceran, Bosmina meridionalis, exhibited no higher mortality over the full range of the cumulative UVB‐doses used (3–40 kJ m^?2) than controls receiving no UV exposure. The copepod Boeckella delicata showed the highest UV‐sensitivity of all organisms tested (LD10 = 7 kJ m^?2, LD50 = 33 kJ m^?2) whereas for Boeckella triarticulata, which was more heavily pigmented than B. delicata, no UV‐induced mortality was observed. Under natural conditions UV irradiances of up to 100 kJ m^?2 day^?1 can fall on the surface of New Zealand lakes. Although this is attenuated in natural waters, these data suggest that UVB irradiance may be a significant ecological variable to some zooplankton species.