A macro-scale flood risk model for Jamaica with impact of climate variability

Floods account for more than half of the global hydrometeorological risks. Severe floods cause significant economic shocks and loss of lives, particularly for developing countries such as Jamaica. There is need for more information on the present and projected flood risks to justify macro-scale planning for climate change adaptation and facilitate the decision-making processes. In this study, a catalogue of 198 flood events occurring between 1678 and 2010 is compiled for Jamaica and used to examine the climatology, occurrence, trends, causes and duration of the island’s severe events. The annual flood risk is estimated to be a loss of life rate of 4 persons and estimated annual damage of USD96.3 million per annum in 2010 values and approximately 0.84 % of GDP per annum. Macro-scale models for flood risks (deaths and damages) are also developed using data from the flood catalogue and maximum precipitation at the town and parish level. The models examine the relationship between flood risks (death and damages) and extreme rainfall depths and intensities. Future climate risks of loss of lives and damages are predicted to increase 11 and 9 %, respectively, to 4.4 persons and USD105.2 million per annum.     

Non‐unique stratal geometries: implications for sequence stratigraphic interpretations

There is now strong evidence that stratal geometries on basin margins are most likely a consequence of multiple controls, not just variations in accommodation. Consequently, correct sequence stratigraphic interpretation of stratal geometries requires an understanding of how multiple different controls may generate similar geometries. Using a simple numerical stratigraphic forward model, we explore the impact of time variable sediment supply and different sediment transport rates on stratal geometries. We demonstrate how four common types of stratal geometry can form by more than one set of controlling parameter values and are thus likely to be non‐unique, meaning that there may be several sets of controlling factors that can plausibly explain their formation. For example, a maximum transgressive surface can occur in the model due to an increase in rate of relative sea‐level rise during constant sediment supply, and due to a reduction in rate of sediment supply during a constant rate of relative sea‐level rise. Sequence boundaries, topset aggradation and shoreline trajectories are also examples of non‐unique stratal geometries. If the model simulations in this work are sufficiently realistic, then the modelled stratal geometries are important examples of non‐uniqueness, suggesting the need for a shift towards sequence stratigraphic methods based on constructing and evaluating multiple hypotheses and scenarios.     

Evaluation of the relative roles of global versus local sedimentary controls on Middle to Late Pleistocene formation of continental margin strata,Canterbury Basin,New Zealand

Determining the relative influence of eustasy versus local sedimentary processes on strata formation is a fundamental challenge in the study of continental margin stratigraphy. In this paper, the relative contribution of these factors on continental margin evolution during the Middle to Late Pleistocene is evaluated using samples from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 317. Core‐logging, biostratigraphy and quantitative X‐ray diffraction mineralogy are used to delineate continental shelf sedimentary systems. Major lithological unconformities bound stratigraphic sequences that contain recurring compositional patterns and that resemble other examples of Middle to Upper Pleistocene sequences. However, a preliminary chronology suggests that sequence boundary formation cannot be linked ‘one to one’ with eustatic cycles and therefore these sequences can contain multiple ca 100 ka eustatic cycles. Smaller amplitude, higher frequency transitions in sediment composition are interpreted as stratigraphic sequences driven by more rapid perturbations in the interplay of accommodation and sediment supply; their stratigraphy is variable in time and across the shelf, suggesting a strong influence of local sedimentary forcing in their formation. Changes in sediment composition after the Middle Pleistocene Transition indicate that sediment transfer from onshore sources in the glaciated Southern Alps to the middle‐shelf occurred over a single 100 ka glacio‐eustatic cycle, with an additional 100 ka lag before the mineralogical signal was preserved on the outer‐shelf. This phenomenon is coincident with rapid shelf progradation in this basin, suggesting a causal relation between across‐shelf sediment transport and margin progradation. This is one of very few studies that provide insights at the core scale into the processes driving continental margin evolution during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. This work shows that compositional changes in mud‐dominated successions can lead to a sequence stratigraphic interpretation and the identification of high‐frequency sequences, which may not be possible using a conventional stratigraphic approach.     

Mid-level clouds over the Sahara in a convection-permitting regional model

Climate Dynamics - The simulation of Saharan mid tropospheric clouds is investigated with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) regional atmospheric model at convection permitting...     

The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM): Instrument Design

The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) instrument is designed to measure total solar irradiance with an absolute accuracy of 100 parts per million. Four electrical substitution radiometers behind precision apertures measure input radiant power while providing redundancy. Duty cycling the use of the radiometers tracks degradation of the nickel-phosphorous absorptive black radiometer interiors caused by solar exposure. Phase sensitive detection at the shutter frequency reduces noise and simplifies the estimate of the radiometer's equivalence ratio. An as-designed uncertainty budget estimates the instrument's accuracy goal. The TIM measurement equation defines the conversion from measured signal to solar irradiance.     

A survey of orbits of co-orbitals of Mars

Many asteroids with a semimajor axis close to that of Mars have been discovered in the last several years. Potentially some of these could be in 1:1 resonance with Mars, much as are the classic Trojan asteroids with Jupiter, and its lesser-known horseshoe companions with Earth. In the 1990s, two Trojan companions of Mars, 5261 Eureka and 1998 VF₃₁, were discovered, librating about the L₅ Lagrange point, 60° behind Mars in its orbit. Although several other potential Mars Trojans have been identified, our orbital calculations show only one other known asteroid, 1999 UJ₇, to be a Trojan, associated with the L₄ Lagrange point, 60° ahead of Mars in its orbit. We further find that asteroid 36017 (1999 ND₄₃) is a horseshoe librator, alternating with periods of Trojan motion. This asteroid makes repeated close approaches to Earth and has a chaotic orbit whose behavior can be confidently predicted for less than 3000 years. We identify two objects, 2001 HW₁₅ and 2000 TG₂, within the resonant region capable of undergoing what we designate “circulation transition”, in which objects can pass between circulation outside the orbit of Mars and circulation inside it, or vice versa. The eccentricity of the orbit of Mars appears to play an important role in circulation transition and in horseshoe motion. Based on the orbits and on spectroscopic data, the Trojan asteroids of Mars may be primordial bodies, while some co-orbital bodies may be in a temporary state of motion.     

Validating the Flash Code: Vortex-Dominated Flows

As a component of the Flash Center’s validation program, we compare FLASH simulation results with experimental results from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The flow of interest involves the lateral interaction between a planar M _a = 1.2 shock wave with a cylinder of gaseous sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) in air, and in particular the development of primary and secondary instabilities after the passage of the shock. While the overall evolution of the flow is comparable in the simulations and experiments, small-scale features are difficult to match. We focus on the sensitivity of numerical results to simulation parameters.