Icehouse world sea-level behaviour and resulting stratal patterns in late Visean (Mississippian) carbonate platforms: integration of numerical forward modelling and outcrop studies

Late Visean (Asbian–Brigantian) platform carbonates in the British Isles show a pronounced cyclicity marked by the alternation of mainly subtidal carbonates and subaerial exposure surfaces. Whereas the cyclicity of shallow‐water limestones of this age has been well‐documented, there has been little attempt to understand the controls on larger‐scale patterns such as those recognized in Pennsylvanian successions in the U.S.A. The principal aim of this study is to test two contrasting theories of cycle stacking via numerical forward modelling. Earlier studies of Pennsylvanian‐early Permian platform carbonates in south‐west U.S.A. suggest that cycle stacking patterns were controlled by the interaction of third‐ and fourth‐order sea‐level oscillations, with relatively uniform fourth‐order oscillations altered mainly by the harmonic effect of lower‐order sea‐level changes. An alternative model is based on an insolation curve for the Carboniferous calculated using Milankovitch parameters. This model predicts a considerable variability in levels of solar insolation that would have affected the amplitude of fourth‐order sea‐level changes and cycle composition. Both of these ideas were examined via numerous model runs using CARBONATE 6.0 and a new program, CARBOSMUT. Model results were evaluated through the use of 3 key criteria derived from well‐documented outcropping stratigraphies in the U.K.: (1) cycle stacking patterns and the stratigraphic position of major transgressions, (2) stratigraphic position of major faunal changes, (3) degree of development of subaerial exposure surfaces. Computer simulations and comparison with outcrop data suggest that a model invoking the interaction of relatively uniform fourth‐ (c.100 Kyr) and third‐order sea‐level oscillations is most appropriate for much of the late Visean, with major lowstands occurring at the mid‐Asbian and Asbian–Brigantian boundary. Late Visean cycles are important exploration targets in the Pri‐Caspian Basin, Kazakhstan and understanding the controls on stratal patterns is important as a potential exploration tool.     

Climatic regions as an indicator of forest coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks in the United States

Background  

Coarse and fine woody debris are substantial forest ecosystem carbon stocks; however, there is a lack of understanding how these detrital carbon stocks vary across forested landscapes. Because forest woody detritus production and decay rates may partially depend on climatic conditions, the accumulation of coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks in forests may be correlated with climate. This study used a nationwide inventory of coarse and fine woody debris in the United States to examine how these carbon stocks vary by climatic regions and variables.     

The influence of sampling design on spatial data quality in a geographic citizen science project

Geographic citizen science has much potential to assist in wildlife research and conservation, but the quality of observation data is a key concern. We examined the effects of sampling design on the quality of spatial data collected for a koala citizen science project in Australia. Data were collected from three samples—volunteers (n = 454), an Internet panel (n = 103), and landowners (n = 35)—to assess spatial data quality, a dimension of citizen science projects rarely considered. The locational accuracy of koala observations among the samples was similar when benchmarked against authoritative data (i.e., an expert‐derived koala distribution model), but there were differences in the quantity of data generated. Fewer koala location data were generated per participant by the Internet panel sample than the volunteer or landowner samples. Spatial preferences for land uses affecting koala conservation were also mapped, with landowners more likely to map locations for residential and tourism development and volunteers less likely. These spatial preferences have the potential to influence the social acceptability of future koala conservation proposals. With careful sampling design, both citizen observations and land use preferences can be included within the same project to augment scientific assessments and identify conservation opportunities and constraints.     

Polar orbits around binary stars

Oks proposes the existence of a new class of stable planetary orbits around binary stars, in the shape of a helix on a conical surface whose axis of symmetry coincides with the interstellar axis, and rotates with the same orbital frequency as the binary pair. We show that this claim relies on the inappropriate use of an effective potential that is only applicable when the stars are held motionless. We also present numerical evidence that the only planetary orbits whose planes are initially orthogonal to the interstellar axis that remain stable on the time scale of the stellar orbit are ordinary polar orbits around one of the stars, and that the perturbations due to the binary companion do not rotate the plane of the orbit to maintain a fixed relationship with the axis.     

Relative model score: a scoring rule for evaluating ensemble simulations with application to microbial soil respiration modeling

This paper defines a new scoring rule, namely relative model score (RMS), for evaluating ensemble simulations of environmental models. RMS implicitly incorporates the measures of ensemble mean accuracy, prediction interval precision, and prediction interval reliability for evaluating the overall model predictive performance. RMS is numerically evaluated from the probability density functions of ensemble simulations given by individual models or several models via model averaging. We demonstrate the advantages of using RMS through an example of soil respiration modeling. The example considers two alternative models with different fidelity, and for each model Bayesian inverse modeling is conducted using two different likelihood functions. This gives four single-model ensembles of model simulations. For each likelihood function, Bayesian model averaging is applied to the ensemble simulations of the two models, resulting in two multi-model prediction ensembles. Predictive performance for these ensembles is evaluated using various scoring rules. Results show that RMS outperforms the commonly used scoring rules of log-score, pseudo Bayes factor based on Bayesian model evidence (BME), and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). RMS avoids the problem of rounding error specific to log-score. Being applicable to any likelihood functions, RMS has broader applicability than BME that is only applicable to the same likelihood function of multiple models. By directly considering the relative score of candidate models at each cross-validation datum, RMS results in more plausible model ranking than CRPS. Therefore, RMS is considered as a robust scoring rule for evaluating predictive performance of single-model and multi-model prediction ensembles.     

Which way do you lean? Using slope aspect variations to understand Critical Zone processes and feedbacks

Soil‐mantled pole‐facing hillslopes on Earth tend to be steeper, wetter, and have more vegetation cover compared with adjacent equator‐facing hillslopes. These and other slope aspect controls are often the consequence of feedbacks among hydrologic, ecologic, pedogenic, and geomorphic processes triggered by spatial variations in mean annual insolation. In this paper we review the state of knowledge on slope aspect controls of Critical Zone (CZ) processes using the latitudinal and elevational dependence of topographic asymmetry as a motivating observation. At relatively low latitudes and elevations, pole‐facing hillslopes tend to be steeper. At higher latitudes and elevations this pattern reverses. We reproduce this pattern using an empirical model based on parsimonious functions of latitude, an aridity index, mean‐annual temperature, and slope gradient. Using this empirical model and the literature as guides, we present a conceptual model for the slope‐aspect‐driven CZ feedbacks that generate asymmetry in water‐limited and temperature‐limited end‐member cases. In this conceptual model the dominant factor driving slope aspect differences at relatively low latitudes and elevations is the difference in mean‐annual soil moisture. The dominant factor at higher latitudes and elevations is temperature limitation on vegetation growth. In water‐limited cases, we propose that higher mean‐annual soil moisture on pole‐facing hillslopes drives higher soil production rates, higher water storage potential, more vegetation cover, faster dust deposition, and lower erosional efficiency in a positive feedback. At higher latitudes and elevations, pole‐facing hillslopes tend to have less vegetation cover, greater erosional efficiency, and gentler slopes, thus reversing the pattern of asymmetry found at lower latitudes and elevations. Our conceptual model emphasizes the linkages among short‐ and long‐timescale processes and across CZ sub‐disciplines; it also points to opportunities to further understand how CZ processes interact. We also demonstrate the importance of paleoclimatic conditions and non‐climatic factors in influencing slope aspect variations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geomorphological evolution and sediment stratigraphy of numerically simulated alluvial fans

When a sediment laden river reaches a flat basin area the coarse fraction of their sediment load is deposited in a cone shaped structure called an alluvial fan. In this article we used the State Space Soil Production and Assessment Model (SSSPAM) coupled landform–soilscape evolution model to simulate the development of alluvial fans in two- and three-dimensional landforms. In SSSPAM the physical processes of erosion and armouring, soil weathering and sediment deposition were modelled using state-space matrices, in both two and three dimensions. The results of the two-dimensional fan showed that the fan grew vertically and laterally keeping a concave up long profile. It also showed a downstream fining of the sediments along the fan profile. Both of these observations are in agreement with available literature concerning natural and experimental fan formations. Simulations with the three-dimensional landform produced a fan with a semicircular shape with concave up long profiles and concave down cross profiles which is typical for fans found in nature and ones developed in laboratory conditions. During the simulation the main channel which brings sediment to the fan structure changed its position constantly leading to the semicircular shape of the fan. This behaviour is similar to the autogenic process of ‘fanhead trenching’ which is the major mechanism of sediment redistribution while the fan is developing. The three-dimensional fan simulation also exhibited the downstream fining of sediments from the fan apex to the peripheries. Further, the simulated fan also developed complex internal sediment stratification which is modelled by SSSPAM. Currently such complex sediment stratification is thought to be a result of allogenic processes. However, this simulation shows that, such complex internal sediment structures can develop through autogenic processes as well. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Field studies of velocity,salinity and suspended solids concentration in a shallow tidal channel near tidal flap gates

The design and operation of mathematical models of solute mixing and sediment transport in estuaries rely heavily on the provision of good-quality field data. We present some observations of salinity, suspended sediment concentration and velocity at one of the tidal limits of a semi-enclosed tidal lagoon in Southern England (Pagham Harbour, West Sussex, UK) where the natural processes of tidal incursion and solute mixing have been heavily modified as a result of the construction of sea walls dating back to the 18th Century. These observations, made immediately downstream of two parallel tidal flap gates by conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) profiler, and also using bed-mounted sensor frames to measure velocity at 2 fixed depths, have yielded a set of results covering 11 tidal cycles over the period 2002–04. It is clear from the results obtained that over a typical tidal cycle, the greatest vertical salinity gradients occur in the 1–2 h immediately after the onset of the flood tide, and that subsequently, energetic mixing acts to rapidly break down this stratification. Under moderate-to-high fresh water flows (>0.5 m³/s), the break-down in vertical salinity gradient is more gradual, while under low fresh water flows (<0.2 m³/s), the vertical salinity gradient is generally less pronounced. Estimates of Richardson number during the early flood-tide period reveal values that vary rapidly between <1 and about 20, with lower values occurring after around 1.5–2 h after low water. Observations of suspended sediment concentration vary widely even for similar tidal and fresh water flow conditions, revealing the possible influence of wind speed, the storage effects of the water in the lagoon downstream of the observation site, and the complexity of the hydrodynamics downstream of tidal flap gates. The data also show that most of the sediment transport is landward, and occurs during flood tides, with estimated total tidal landward flood tide flux of fine sediment of the order of 50–120 kg under low fresh water flow conditions. These observations, which reinforce the results presented in Warner et al. (2004) and elsewhere, can help to provide information about the appropriate techniques for managing sediments and pollutants, including nutrients from sewage effluent waters, in estuaries where hydraulic flap gates are used to control the entry of fresh water over the tidal cycle.     

Outflow of Pacific water from the Chukchi Sea to the Arctic Ocean

Pacific water exits the Chukchi Sea shelf through Barrow Canyon in the east and Herald Canyon in the west, forming an eastward-directed shelfbreak boundary current that flows into the Beaufort Sea. Here we summarize the transformation that the Pacific water undergoes in the two canyons, and describe the characteristics and variability of the resulting shelfbreak jet, using recently collected summertime hydrographic data and a year-long mooting data set. In both canyons the northward-flowing Pacific winter water switches from the western to the eastern flank of the canyon, interacting with the northward-flowing summer water. In Barrow canyon the vorticity structure of the current is altered, while in Herald canyon a new water mass mode is created. In both instances hydraulic effects are believed to be partly responsible for the observed changes. The shelfl）reak jet that forms from the canyon outflows has distinct seasonal configurations, from a bottom-intensified flow carrying cold, dense Pacific water in spring, to a surface-intensified current advecting warm, buoyant water in summer. The current also varies significantly on short timescales, from less than a day to a week. In fall and winter much of this mesoscale variability is driven by storm events, whose easterly winds reverse the current and cause upwelling. Different types of eddies are spawned from the current, which are characterized here using hydrographic and satellite data.