Minimal cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm for seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks

In this paper, a new probabilistic analytical approach, the minimal cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm (MCRDA), is presented to evaluate the seismic reliability of large-scale lifeline systems. Based on the minimal cut searching algorithm, the approach calculates the disjoint minimal cuts one by one using the basic procedure of the recursive decomposition method. At the same time, the process obtains the disjoint minimal paths of the system. In order to improve the computation efficiency, probabilistic inequality is used to calculate a solution that satisfies the prescribed error bound. A series of case studies show that MCRDA converges rapidly when the edges of the systems have low reliabilities. Therefore, the approach can be used to evaluate large-scale lifeline systems subjected to strong seismic wave excitation.     

Semi-active model predictive control for 3rd generation benchmark problem using smart dampers

A semi-active strategy for model predictive control (MPC), in which magneto-rheological dampers are used as an actuator, is presented for use in reducing the nonlinear seismic response of high-rise buildings. A multi-step predictive model is developed to estimate the seismic performance of high-rise buildings, taking into account of the effects of nonlinearity, time-variability, model mismatching, and disturbances and uncertainty of controlled system parameters by the predicted error feedback in the multi-step predictive model. Based on the predictive model, a Kalman-Bucy observer suitable for semi-active strategy is proposed to estimate the state vector from the acceleration and semi-active control force feedback. The main advantage of the proposed strategy is its inherent stability, simplicity, on-line real-time operation, and the ability to handle nonlinearity, uncertainty, and time-variability properties of structures. Numerical simulation of the nonlinear seismic responses of a controlled 20-story benchmark building is carried out, and the simulation results are compared to those of other control systems. The results show that the developed semi-active strategy can efficiently reduce the nonlinear seismic response of high-rise buildings.     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

Late quaternary seismic stratigraphy and active faults of the Gulf of İzmit (NE Marmara Sea)

The Upper Quaternary seismic stratigraphy and active faults of the Gulf of İzmit were investigated by means of high-resolution shallow seismic profiling data in the source region of 1999 İzmit earthquake. High-resolution seismic reflection data correlated with borehole data indicate that the stratigraphy of İzmit Bay consists of three distinct depositional sequences formed in response to middle Pleistocene-Holocene sea-level changes. Reflector R, separating the pre-Holocene sequences (1 and 2) from the Holocene sequence (3), represents an erosional unconformity produced by the subaerial fluvial erosion of the continental shelves at the time of the last glacial maximum. Occasional, anomalous reflections (acoustic turbidity) observed within the Holocene sequence are interpreted as gas accumulations. The maximum thickness of the Holocene sediments is found to be about 25 m. The isopach map of Holocene sediment implies that the thickness of the Holocene decreases from the east towards the central and western basins of İzmit Bay. Two distinct fault systems are interpreted in İzmit Bay. The main fault system extending roughly in an E-W direction along the Gulf of İzmit is an active right lateral strike slip fault with a normal component. The secondary faults are normal faults striking in different directions and these are identified as being both active and inactive. In addition, prominent compressive features are identified in the seismic cross-sections of some profiles acquired to the east of Hersek Peninsula where the focal mechanisms of the aftershocks of the 1999 İzmit earthquake also reveal predominantly reverse faulting mechanisms, as identified by a local dense seismic network.     

Optical properties of the red tide in Isahaya Bay,southwestern Japan: Influence of chlorophyll a concentration

Remote sensing reflectance [R _rs(λ)] and absorption coefficients of red tides were measured in Isahaya Bay, southwestern Japan, to investigate differences in the optical properties of red tide and non-red tide waters. We defined colored areas of the sea surface, visualized from shipboard, as “red tides”. Peaks of the R _rs(λ) spectra of non-red tide waters were at 565 nm, while those of red tides shifted to longer wavelengths (589 nm). The spectral shape of R _rs(λ) was close to that of the reciprocal of the total absorption coefficient [1/a(λ)], implying that the R _rs(λ) peak is determined by absorption. Absorption coefficients of phytoplankton [a _ph(λ)], non-pigment particles and colored dissolved organic matter increased with increasing chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), and those coefficients were correlated with Chl a for both red tide and non-red tide waters. Using these relationships between absorption coefficients and Chl a, variation in the spectrum of 1/a(λ) as a function of Chl a was calculated. The peak of 1/a(λ) shifted to longer wavelengths with increasing Chl a. Furthermore, the relative contribution of a _ph(λ) to the total absorption in red tide water was significantly higher than in non-red tide water in the wavelength range 550–600 nm, including the peak. Our results show that the variation of a _ph(λ) with Chl a dominates the behavior of the R _rs(λ) peak, and utilization of R _rs(λ) peaks at 589 and 565 nm may be useful to discriminate between red tide and non-red tide waters by remote sensing.     

<Superscript>234</Superscript>Th/<Superscript>238</Superscript>U disequilibrium and particulate organic carbon export in the northern South China Sea

We utilized ²³⁴Th, a naturally occurring radionuclide, to quantify the particulate organic carbon (POC) export rates in the northern South China Sea (SCS) based on data collected in July 2000 (summer), May 2001 (spring) and November 2002 (autumn). Th-234 deficit was enhanced with depth in the euphotic zone, reaching a subsurface maximum at the Chl-a maximum in most cases, as commonly observed in many oceanic regimes. Th-234 was in general in equilibrium with ²³⁸U at a depth of ∼100 m, the bottom of the euphotic zone. In this study the ²³⁴Th deficit appeared to be less significant in November than in July and May. A surface excess of ²³⁴Th relative to ²³⁸U was found in the summer over the shelf of the northern SCS, most likely due to the accumulation of suspended particles entrapped by a salinity front. Comparison of the ²³⁴Th fluxes from the upper 10 m water column between 2-D and traditional 1-D models revealed agreement within the errors of estimation, suggesting the applicability of the 1-D model to this particular shelf region. 1-D model-based ²³⁴Th fluxes were converted to POC export rates using the ratios of bottle POC to ²³⁴Th. The values ranged from 5.3 to 26.6 mmol C m⁻²d⁻¹ and were slightly higher than those in the southern SCS and other oligotrophic areas. POC export overall showed larger values in spring and summer than in autumn, the seasonality of which was, however, not significant. The highest POC export rate (26.6 mmol C m⁻²d⁻¹) appeared at the shelf break in spring (May), when Chl-a increased and the community structure changed from pico-phytoplankton (<2 μm) dominated to nano-phytoplankton (2–20 μm) and micro-phytoplankton (20–200 μm) dominated.     

Isotopic tracers for water masses in the coastal region of eastern Hokkaido

In this study we used two stable isotopes, δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O, for water mass classification in the coastal region off eastern Hokkaido. δ¹³C* values, which were corrected for the biological effect, and δ ¹⁸O values up to 300 m depth suggested that the isotopic character of the onshore and offshore water in the southern Okhotsk Sea, the Nemuro Strait and the western North Pacific could be explained by the mixing of three source waters: the Oyashio water (OYW), Soya Warm Current water (SWCW) and East Sakhalin Current water (ESCW). In summer, δ ¹³C*-δ ¹⁸O plots indicated mixing between SWCW from the southern Okhotsk Sea and OYW in the Pacific coast of southeastern Hokkaido, while temperature-salinity plots of the onshore water showed minimal difference from the offshore OYW. In winter, on the other hand, the mixed water of ESCW and OYW (or SWCW) appeared in the Pacific coastal region, distributed as cold, low salinity onshore water. Finally, we estimated mixing ratios of OYW, SWCW and ESCW in the coastal region of western North Pacific using their mean values of δ ¹³C* and δ ¹⁸O as endmembers. These results suggest seasonal and yearly changes of water mass combination en route from the southern Okhotsk Sea to the western North Pacific.     

Numerical study of baroclinic tides in Luzon Strait

The spatial and temporal variations of baroclinic tides in the Luzon Strait (LS) are investigated using a three-dimensional tide model driven by four principal constituents, O₁, K₁, M₂ and S₂, individually or together with seasonal mean summer or winter stratifications as the initial field. Barotropic tides propagate predominantly westward from the Pacific Ocean, impinge on two prominent north-south running submarine ridges in LS, and generate strong baroclinic tides propagating into both the South China Sea (SCS) and the Pacific Ocean. Strong baroclinic tides, ∼19 GW for diurnal tides and ∼11 GW for semidiurnal tides, are excited on both the east ridge (70%) and the west ridge (30%). The barotropic to baroclinic energy conversion rate reaches 30% for diurnal tides and ∼20% for semidiurnal tides. Diurnal (O₁ and K₁) and semidiurnal (M₂) baroclinic tides have a comparable depth-integrated energy flux 10–20 kW m⁻¹ emanating from the LS into the SCS and the Pacific basin. The spring-neap averaged, meridionally integrated baroclinic tidal energy flux is ∼7 GW into the SCS and ∼6 GW into the Pacific Ocean, representing one of the strongest baroclinic tidal energy flux regimes in the World Ocean. About 18 GW of baroclinic tidal energy, ∼50% of that generated in the LS, is lost locally, which is more than five times that estimated in the vicinity of the Hawaiian ridge. The strong westward-propagating semidiurnal baroclinic tidal energy flux is likely the energy source for the large-amplitude nonlinear internal waves found in the SCS. The baroclinic tidal energy generation, energy fluxes, and energy dissipation rates in the spring tide are about five times those in the neap tide; while there is no significant seasonal variation of energetics, but the propagation speed of baroclinic tide is about 10% faster in summer than in winter. Within the LS, the average turbulence kinetic energy dissipation rate is O(10⁻⁷) W kg^{− 1} and the turbulence diffusivity is O(10⁻³) m²s⁻¹, a factor of 100 greater than those in the typical open ocean. This strong turbulence mixing induced by the baroclinic tidal energy dissipation exists in the main path of the Kuroshio and is important in mixing the Pacific Ocean, Kuroshio, and the SCS waters.     

Silver in Tokyo Bay estuarine waters and Japanese rivers

Dissolved and particulate concentrations of silver in Tokyo Bay estuarine waters and Japanese rivers were determined in this study. The dissolved silver concentrations in the surface water of Tokyo Bay range from 5.9 to 15.1 pmol kg⁻¹, which is comparable to those in the surface water of the Japan Sea, but two or three times higher than those in the surface water of the open ocean. However, elevated concentrations of dissolved silver are not found in Tokyo Bay compared with those in other highly urbanized estuaries, such as San Francisco Bay (20∼243 pmol kg⁻¹). In the Tokyo Bay estuary, silver typically exhibits non-conservative mixing behavior, which is a common feature in the other estuaries reported previously. Dissolved silver concentrations decrease with salinity from the rivers to the mouth of Tokyo Bay. Silver is efficiently scavenged by suspended particulates, as evidenced by the high conditional distribution coefficients for silver throughout the estuary (log K_d > 5.0 ± 0.6). The silver fluxes into Tokyo Bay via inflowing rivers and atmospheric deposition were estimated as 83 kg y⁻¹ and 15 kg y⁻¹, respectively. A simple budget calculation shows that the silver supplied from rivers and atmosphere must be rapidly scavenged within the Tokyo Bay estuary.     

Estimation of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">in situ</Emphasis> Ultraviolet-A absorption of seawater by a simple irradiance inversion model

An irradiance inversion model to estimate the in situ absorption coefficient of seawater has been developed for the Ultraviolet-A (UVA) wavelength domain. Input parameters are sun angle and the up-and downward planar irradiances measured for at least two depths. The present method does not require seawater to be sampled, and is a discrete wavelength method which returns the absorption coefficient at a given wavelength from the irradiances measured at that wavelength without assuming a spectral shape of any optical properties a priori. Comparison between the model results and spectrophotometric measurements shows that the model is practically useful when cloud cover in the atmosphere is ≤ 50%. According to the present method, measurements of the irradiances enable simultaneous observation of the in situ underwater UVA radiation level and the absorption capacity of bulk seawater using a radiometer.