The effect of climate and land use change on flow duration in the Maryland Piedmont region

This paper describes the use of a continuous streamflow model to examine the effects of climate and land use change on flow duration in six urbanizing watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region. The hydrologic model is coupled with an optimization routine to achieve an agreement between observed and simulated streamflow. Future predictions are made for three scenarios: future climate change, land use change, and jointly varying climate and land use. Future climate is modelled using precipitation and temperature predictions for the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) and Hadley climate models. Results show that a significant increase in temperature under the CCC climate predictions produces a decreasing trend in low flows. A significant increasing trend in precipitation under the Hadley climate predictions produces an increasing trend in peak flows. Land use change by itself, as simulated by an additional 10% increase in imperviousness (from 20·5 to 30·5%), produces no significant changes in the simulated flow durations. However, coupling the effects of land use change with climate change leads to more significant decreasing trends in low flows under the CCC climate predictions and more significant increasing trends in peak flows under Hadley climate predictions than when climate change alone is employed. These findings indicate that combined land use and climate change can result in more significant hydrologic change than either driver acting alone. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relative sea‐level change and postglacial isostatic adjustment along the coast of south Devon,United Kingdom

Previous sea‐level studies suggest that southwest Britain has the fastest subsiding coastline in the United Kingdom, but tide‐gauge data, GPS and gravity measurements and geophysical models show little evidence of anomalous subsidence in this region. In this paper we present 15 new sea‐level index points from four coastal barrier systems in south Devon. Eight are from compaction‐free basal sediments and others were corrected for autocompaction. Our data suggest that relative sea level along the south Devon coastline has risen by 21 ± 4 m during the past 9000 years. Sea‐level rise slowed during the middle and late Holocene and a rise of 8 ± 1 m has occurred since ca. 7000 cal. yr BP. Anomalous ages for many rejected points are attributed to sediment reworking during barrier transgression. The relative sea‐level history during the early and middle Holocene shows a good fit with geophysical model predictions, but the geological and modelled data diverge in the later Holocene. Unlike the geophysical models, sea‐level index points cannot differentiate between late Holocene relative sea‐level histories of south Devon and southwest Cornwall. It is suggested that this discrepancy can be resolved by obtaining additional high‐quality sea‐level index points covering the past 4000 years. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of climate change on U. K. river flows: A preliminary comparison of two generations of probabilistic climate projections

The impacts of climate change on future river flows are a growing concern. Typically, impacts are simulated by driving hydrological models with climate model ensemble data. The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) provided probabilistic projections, enabling a risk-based approach to decision-making under climate change. Recently, an update was released—UKCP18—so there is a need for information on how impacts may differ. The probabilistic projections from UKCP18 and UKCP09 are here applied using the change factor method with catchment-based hydrological modelling for 10 catchments across England. Projections of changes in median, mean, high, and low flows are made for the 2050s, using the A1B emissions scenario from UKCP09 and UKCP18 as well as the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios from UCKP18. The results show that, in all catchments for all flow measures, the central estimate of change under UKCP18 is similar to that from UKCP09 (A1B emissions). However, the probabilistic uncertainty ranges from UKCP18 are, in all cases, greater than from UKCP09, despite UKCP18 having a smaller ensemble size than UKCP09. Although there are differences between the central estimates of change using UKCP18 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and A1B emissions, there is considerable overlap in the uncertainty ranges. The results suggest that existing assessments of hydrological impacts remain relevant, though it will be necessary to evaluate sensitive decisions using the latest projections. The analysis will aid development of advice to users of current guidance based on UKCP09 and help make decisions about the prioritization of further hydrological impacts work using UKCP18, which should also apply other products from UKCP18 like the 12-km regional data.     

An improved glacial isostatic adjustment model for the British Isles

The glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) of the British Isles is of interest due to the constraints that can be provided on key model parameters such as the global meltwater signal, local ice sheet history and viscoelastic earth structure. A number of recent studies have modelled relative sea‐level (RSL) data from this region to constrain model parameters. As indicated in these studies, the sensitivity of these data to both local and global parameters results in a highly non‐unique problem. This study aims to address this inherent non‐uniqueness by combining a previously published British–Irish ice model that is based on the most recent geomorphological data with a new global ice sheet model that provides an accurate prediction of eustatic sea‐level change. In addition, constraints from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of present‐day vertical land motion are considered alongside the entirety of RSL data from both Great Britain and Ireland. A model solution is found that provides a high‐quality fit to both the RSL data and the GPS data. Within the range of earth viscosity values considered, the optimal data model fits were achieved with a relatively thin lithosphere (71 km), upper mantle viscosities in the range 4–6 × 10²⁰ Pa s and lower mantle viscosities ≥ 3 × 10²² Pa s. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeled interactions of mesoscale eddies with the East Pacific Rise: Implications for larval dispersal

Larval transport from distant populations is essential for maintenance and renewal of populations in patchy and disturbed ecosystems such as deep-sea hydrothermal vents. We use quasi-geostrophic modeling to consider the potential for long-distance dispersal of hydrothermal vent larvae in mesoscale eddies interacting with the northern East Pacific Rise. Modeled eddy dynamics were similar to the observed propagation dynamics of Tehuantepec eddies, including their ability to cross the ridge. Simulated surface anticyclones were associated with coherent cyclones in the deep layer with relatively strong current velocities that could significantly increase the dispersal potential of passive particles. Eddy interactions with ridge topography further enhanced tracer dispersal along the ridge axis through shearing and elongation of the eddy core. Simulations suggest that the passage of an eddy would result in local loss from the vent field and aggregate transport with potential enhancement of dispersal between vent fields separated by up to 270 km. Based on the latitude at which most Tehuantepec eddies cross the ridge, eddy-induced flows would enhance connectivity between the 13°N, 11°N, and 9°N vent fields along the East Pacific Rise asymmetrically with higher transport from northern vent fields to southern vent fields.     

Monitoring the remediation of a near shore waste disposal site in Antarctica using the amphipod Paramoera walkeri and diffusive gradients in thin films (DGTs)

The water quality of a marine embayment (Brown Bay) was monitored during the remediation of an abandoned waste disposal site at Casey Station, East Antarctica, using a combination of biomonitoring and chemical methods. The Antarctic amphipod Paramoera walkeri, in field mesocosms suspended in the water column, was deployed adjacent to the site and at two reference sites for periods of 14 days, repeated three times during the remediation period (December to February). Diffusive gradients in thin film (DGT) samplers were deployed for the same periods to provide estimates of dissolved metals. No difference in mortality of amphipods was observed between Brown Bay and reference sites. There were significant differences, however, in accumulated metal concentrations between amphipods from Brown Bay and reference sites, with greater concentrations of antimony, copper, cadmium, lead, iron and tin at Brown Bay. The melt water/runoff treatment strategy employed for the remediation was successful in preventing acute toxic effects, but water quality was reduced at Brown Bay, where increased metal bioavailability may have been high enough to induce chronic effects in some biota. DGT samplers were less sensitive than amphipods in detecting differences in metal concentrations between sites, indicating that metals bound to suspended particulates were a potentially significant source of contamination.     

Baseline metal concentrations in Paramoera walkeri from East Antarctica

Remediation of the Thala Valley waste disposal site near Casey Station, East Antarctica was conducted in the austral summer of 2003/2004. Biomonitoring of the adjacent marine environment was undertaken using the gammaridean amphipod Paramoera walkeri as a sentinel species [Stark, J.S., Johnstone, G.J., Palmer, A.S., Snape, I., Larner, B.L., Riddle, M.J., in press, . Monitoring the remediation of a near shore waste disposal site in Antarctica using the amphipod Paramoera walkeri and diffusive gradients in thin films (DGTs). Marine Pollution Bulletin and references therein]. Determination of uptake of metals and hypothesis testing for differences that could be attributed to contamination required the establishment of baseline metal concentrations in P. walkeri. Baseline metal concentrations from two reference locations in the Windmill Islands are presented here. P. walkeri was a found to be a sensitive bioaccumulating organism that recorded spatial and temporal variability at the reference sites. Measurement of metals in P. walkeri required the development of a simple digestion procedure that used concentrated nitric acid. For the first time, rare earth metals were determined with additional clean procedures required to measure ultra low concentrations using magnetic sector ICP-MS. Certified and in-house reference materials were employed to ensure method reliability.     

Food web analysis in two permanently open temperate estuaries: consequences of saltmarsh loss?

Saltmarsh vegetation, seston and microphytobenthos are all conspicuous components of most temperate estuaries and they potentially contribute to the estuarine food chain. Yet their relative contributions are unclear, as is the significance of saltmarsh losses through natural and human-induced impacts. This study aimed to quantitatively determine the contribution of various types of primary producers to detritus in the Walpole-Nornalup Estuary and Leschenault Inlet, two permanently open estuaries in SW Australia, and, estimate the flow of different types of detritus to higher trophic levels, using carbon ((13)C) and nitrogen ((15)N) stable isotopes as tracers. Results of the mixing model indicated that seston, microphytobenthos and to some extent seagrass and fringing saltmarsh were the main contributors to the detrital pool in both estuaries. However, the relative contribution of different primary producers varied both within and between estuaries. The contribution of saltmarsh was higher at sites close to rivers and dense fringing vegetation, while seston, microphytobenthos and seagrass dominated the detrital material at other sites. Benthic harpacticoid copepods were shown to feed on detritus though they appeared to actively select for different components of the detritus depending on site and estuary. Isotopic signatures of other consumers indicated that fish and invertebrates derived nutrients from MPB and detritus, either directly as food or indirectly through feeding on invertebrates. The overall contribution of saltmarsh to detritus was lower in Leschenault Inlet than in Walpole-Nornalup Estuary, possibly as a result of increased clearing of fringing vegetation around Leschenault Inlet. This pattern was however not reflected in harpacticoid food. Therefore, although losses of fringing saltmarsh around estuaries have the potential to significantly affect estuarine food webs, the significance of such losses will be site- and estuary-dependent.