Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval

A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.     

Geochemical and geochronological data on Triassic volcanism of the Southern Alps of Lombardy (Italy): Genetic implications

Summary A widespread volcanism mainly consisting of pyroclastic products and lava flows is found in the Southern Alps of Lombardy. The volcanics are interbedded with Anisian-Ladinian carbonatic sequences and continental terrigenous or transitional deposits of Ladinian-Carnian age. The petrographic and geochemical data for this volcanism indicate a calc-alkaline affinity with characters similar to those of convergent continental margins. In this sector of the Alps the geological evidences show that in the middle Triassic general extensional movements were the dominant deformation event, and do not support the existence of a subduction zone during this period. The apparent contrast between the tectonic environment and the type of magmas erupted in the Anisian-Carnian is tentatively explained by partial melting during the early stage of rifting of an upper mantle deeply modified during the previous Hercynian orogenesis and contaminated by crustal material. This hypothesis is in agreement with the preliminary Sr isotopic ratios (0.705 and 0.709). K/Ar and Rb/Sr ages on biotites date the beginning of the volcanism at around 225 m.y.

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Zusammenfassung In den Südalpen der Lombardei befindet sich ein weitverbreiteter Vulkanismus, der hauptsächlich aus pyroklastischen Produkten und Lavaströmen besteht. Vulkanische Produkte sind mit anisisch-ladinischen beckenartigen Karbonat-Schichtfolgen oder mit ladinisch-karnischen kontinental-terrestrischen oder Übergangsablagerungen eingebettet. Die petrographischen und geochemischen Daten für diesen Vulkanismus weisen auf eine den konvergenten Kontinentalschelfen ähnliche kalkalkaline Affinität hin. In diesem Sektor der Alpen zeigen die geologischen Beobachtungen, daß die dominanten Verformungsereignisse der mittleren Trias allgemeine Dehnungsbewegungen waren und weisen nicht auf die Existenz einer Subduktionszone zu dieser Zeit hin. Der scheinbare Widerspruch zwischen dem tektonischen Milieu und dem im Anis bis Karn ausgeworfenen Magmatyp wird versuchsweise mit einer Teilaufschmelzung eines während der vorhergehenden herzynischen Orogenese tief veränderten und mit Krustenmaterial verunreinigten oberen Mantels während der Frühphase einer Grabenbildung erklärt. Diese Hypothese ist im Einklang mit den präliminaren Sr-Isotopenverhältnissen (0.705 und 0.709). K/Ar und Rb/Sr Altersmessungen an Biotiten datieren den Anfang der vulkanischen Tätigkeit um 225 Ma.

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Résumé Un volcanisme très répandu constitué surtout par des produits pyroclastiques et par des coulées de lave se trouve dans les Alpes Méridionales en Lombardie. Ces produits volcaniques sont intercalés dans la série carbonatique du bassin d'âge Anisien-Ladinien et dans les dépôts terrigènes continentaux ou transitionnels d'âge Ladinien-Carnien. Les données pétrographiques et géochimiques de ces produits volcaniques montrent une affinité calcoalcaline avec des caractères semblables à ceux des marges continentales convergentes. Dans le Trias moyen de cette partie des Alpes, les données géologiques indiquent que le motif dominant de la déformation est un mouvement d'extension très répandu, tandis qu'il n'y a aucune évidence de l'existence d'une zone de subduction durant cette période. Le contraste entre le style tectonique et le type de magma mis en place dans l'Anisien-Carnien, peut être expliqué par une fusion partielle du manteau supérieur pendant un stade précoce d'effondrement modifié intensément pendant la précédente orogenèse hercynienne et contaminé par des matériaux d'origine crustale. Cette hypothèse est en accord avec des données préliminaires des rapports isotopiques du Sr (0.705 et 0.709). Des âges K/Ar et Rb/Sr sur des biotites donnent 225 m.a. environ pour le début de l'activité volcanique.

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Datation UPb sur zircons des dolérites tholéiitiques pyrénéennes (ophites) à la limite Trias–Jurassique et relations avec les tufs volcaniques dits « infra-liasiques » nord-pyrénéens

The tholeiitic doleritic magmatism (ophites) in the Aspe valley of the Pyrenees has been dated on the Triassic–Jurassic boundary (199±2 Ma) by the UPb method on zircon (SHRIMP). Emplacement of the ophites was probably synchronous with that of the earliest ‘Infraliassic’ Ségalas tuffs. The ophites are thus related to the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) whose emplacement linked with the fracturing of Pangea, preceded the opening of the Atlantic Ocean. To cite this article: P. Rossi et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).     

Decomposition rate and invertebrate colonization of seagrass detritus along a hydrodynamic gradient in a Mediterranean coastal basin: The Stagnone di Marsala (Italy) case study

Seagrass leaf litter decomposition is a key component of marine carbon flow driven by both biotic and abiotic factors, including water movement. In this study, we analyse Posidonia oceanica litter decomposition and invertebrate colonization in three sites with different hydrodynamics in a coastal basin. Litterbags were put on the sea bed along a gradient of distance from the open sea, implying a different level of water exchange. Leaf litter mass loss and carbon and nitrogen concentration were analysed, and density and biomass of benthic invertebrates colonizing litterbags were recorded after 3, 7, 14, 47, 101, 152 and 221 days. Results showed that in the most sheltered site, the leaf litter decomposition rate, the invertebrate density and biomass and the detrital carbon release were the lowest. The reduction of the decomposition rates of seagrass leaves in the site characterized by low hydrodynamic forces may promote organic matter burial and carbon stocks, emphasizing the role of coastal basins such as ponds and lagoons as sinks of carbon and the important role of seagrass detritus in the Blue Carbon global balance.     

Cartography of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-plane of a close encounter I: semimajor axes of post-encounter orbits

Close planetary encounters play an important role in the evolution of the orbits of small Solar system bodies and are usually studied with the help of numerical integrations. Here we study close encounters in the framework of an analytic theory, focusing on the so-called b-plane, which is the plane centred on the planet and perpendicular to the planetocentric velocity at infinity of the small body. As shown in previous papers, it is possible to identify the initial conditions on the b-plane that lead to post-encounter orbits of given semimajor axis. In this paper we exploit analytical relationships between b-plane coordinates and pre-encounter orbital elements and compute the probability of transition to these post-encounter states, and numerically check the validity of the analytic approach.     

Seismic retrofitting of braced frame buildings by RC rocking walls and viscous dampers

A design procedure for seismic retrofitting of concentrically and eccentrically braced frame buildings is proposed and validated in this paper. Rocking walls are added to the existing system to ensure an almost uniform distribution of the interstorey displacement in elevation. To achieve direct and efficient control over the seismic performance, the design procedure is founded on the displacement‐based approach and makes use of overdamped elastic response spectra. The top displacement capacity of the building is evaluated based on a rigid lateral deformed configuration of the structure and on the ductility capacity of the dissipative members of the braced frames. The equivalent viscous damping ratio of the braced structure with rocking walls is calculated based on semi‐empirical relationships specifically calibrated in this paper for concentrically and eccentrically braced frames. If the equivalent viscous damping ratio of the structure is lower than the required equivalent viscous damping ratio, viscous dampers are added and arranged between the rocking walls and adjacent reaction columns. The design internal forces of the rocking walls are evaluated considering the contributions of more than one mode of vibration. The proposed design procedure is applied to a large set of archetype braced frame buildings and its effectiveness verified by nonlinear dynamic analysis.     

A study on off-fault aftershock pattern at N-Adria microplate

The spatial features of the aftershock sequences triggered by three moderate magnitude events with coda-duration magnitudes 4.1, 5.1 and 5.6, which occurred in Northeastern Italy and Western Slovenia, were investigated. The fractal dimension and the orientations of the planar features fitting the hypocentral data have been inferred. The spatial organization is articulated through two temporal phases. The first phase is characterized by the decreasing of the fractal dimension and by vertically oriented planes fitting the hypocentral foci. The second phase is marked by an increase of the fractal dimension and by the activation of different planes, with more widespread orientation. The aftershock temporal distribution is analysed with a model based on a static fatigue process. The process is favoured by the decrease of the overburden pressure, the sharp variations of the mechanical properties of the medium and the unclamping effect resulting from positive normal stress changes caused by the mainshock stress step.     

The 7 and 11 May 1984 earthquakes in Abruzzo-Latium (Central Italy): reappraisal of the existing macroseismic datasets according to the EMS98

The aim of this paper is to provide a complete and reliable macroseismic knowledge of the events that stroke a large area in Central Italy on 7 and 11 May 1984. Previous studies, together with original accounts integrated with new and unpublished information, have been gathered and examined in order to re-evaluate macroseismic intensities in terms of the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS98). New intensity maps have been compiled; the total number of localities with available information for both the shocks increases from 1254 of the previous study to 1576. On the basis of the new dataset, the macroseismic magnitude of the first shock is M_W 5.6 which is lower than the previous macroseismic computation (M_W 5.7). Moreover, the topic of assessing macroseismic intensity in the presence of multiple shocks has been also investigated, proposing an unconventional approach to presenting the macroseismic data: an overall picture of the cumulative effects produced by all the seismic sequence is given to support a partial but faithful reconstruction of the second shock. This approach is inspired by the common experience in interpreting historical seismic sequences and gives a picture of the impact of the 1984 events on the territory.     

A strategy for an accurate estimation of the basal permittivity in the Martian North Polar Layered Deposits

This paper deals with the investigation of the Mars subsurface by means of data collected by the Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionosphere Sounding working at few megahertz frequencies. A data processing strategy, which combines a simple inversion model and an accurate procedure for data selection is presented. This strategy permits to mitigate the theoretical and practical difficulties of the inverse problem arising because of the inaccurate knowledge of the parameters regarding both the scenario under investigation and the radiated electromagnetic field impinging on the Mars surface. The results presented in this paper show that it is possible to reliably retrieve the electromagnetic properties of deeper structures if such strategy is accurately applied. An example is given here, where the analysis of the data collected on Gemina Lingula, a region of the North Polar layer deposits, allowed us to retrieve permittivity values for the basal unit in agreement with those usually associated to the Earth basaltic rocks.     

Simulating Solar Cycles in Northern and Southern Hemispheres by Assimilating Magnetic Data into a Calibrated Flux-Transport Dynamo

We use the flux-transport dynamo prediction scheme introduced by Dikpati, de Toma, and Gilman (Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L05102, 2006) to make separate simulations and predictions of sunspot cycle peaks for northern and southern hemispheres. Despite the division of the data, the skill level achieved is only slightly lower than that achieved for the sum of both hemispheres. The model shows skill at simulating and predicting the difference in peaks between North and South, provided that difference is more than a few percent. The simulation and prediction skill is achieved without adjustment to any parameters of the model that were used when peaks for the sum of North and South sunspot areas was simulated. The results are also very insensitive to the averaging length applied to the input data, provided the simulations and predictions are for peaks defined by averaging the observations over at least 13 rotations. However, in its present form, the model is not capable of skillfully simulating or predicting short-time-scale features of individual solar cycles.