Airfreight: Geographical patterns and economics. Forecasting models with an example from Finland

In my paper I will try to give some geographical and economical aspects on the recent development of airfreight.Some models for forecasting will be presented, especially three made by (i) DOUGLAS Aircraft's RD; (ii) IATA Freight Traffic Forecasts and (iii) A trend model modified in my department. These three models will be applied and compared with special respect to Finnish airfreights during the 80's.     

Daytime F2-layer positive storm effect at middle and lower latitudes

Daytime F2-layer positive storm effects at middle and lower latitudes in the winter thermosphere are analyzed using AE-C, ESRO-4 neutral gas composition data, ground-based ionosonde observations and model calculations. Different longitudinal sectors marked by the storm onset as ‘night-time’ and ‘daytime’ demonstrate different F2-layer positive storm mechanisms. Neutral composition changes in the ‘night-time’ sector with increased [O] and [N₂] absolute concentrations, while (N₂/O)_storm/(N₂/O)_quiet\approx1 at F2-layer heights, are shown to contribute largely to the background N_mF2 increase at lower latitudes lasting during daytime hours. Storm-induced surges of the equatorward wind give rise to an additional N_mF2 increase above this background level. The mid-latitude F2-layer positive storm effect in the ‘daytime’ sector is due to the vertical plasma drift increase, resulting from the interaction of background (poleward) and storm-induced (equatorward) thermospheric winds, but not to changes of [O] and [N₂] concentrations.     

A comparison of total precipitation values estimated from measurements and a 1D cloud model

The purpose of this study is to establish a relation between observed total precipitation values and estimations from a one-dimensional diagnostic cloud model. Total precipitation values estimated from maximum liquid water content, maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and temperature excess are also used to provide an equation for the total precipitation prediction. Data for this study were collected in Istanbul during the autumns of 1987 and 1988. The statistical models are developed with multiple regression technique and then comparatively verified with independent data for 1990. The multiple regression coefficients are in the range of 75% to 80% in the statistical models. Results of the test showed that total precipitation values estimated from the above techniques are in good agreement, with correlation coefficient between 40% and 46% based on test data for 1990.     

Climate change scenarios: Comparisons of paleoreconstructions with recent temperature changes

Paleoclimatic reconstructions for the Mid-Holocene, Eemian, Mid-Pliocene and the Last Glacial Maximum are used to test the paleoanalog hypothesis and develop a regional climate change scenario based on a linear scaling by one parameter - the mean Northern Hemispheric temperature change with respect to present, ΔT _NH. The empirical verification of the paleoanalog hypothesis is extended to a cold epoch for zonal means and to regional distributions of temperature in warm epochs. The best agreement among the scaled paleoanomalies from different epochs is obtained if the seasonal temperature anomalies are scaled with ΔT _NH of the corresponding season. Preferential areas are identified where the paleoanalog hypothesis works relatively well; these areas coincide with the areas of the most pronounced warming. It is shown that the geographical distributions of the winter temperature anomalies over land in the paleodata are similar to those in the 1980–1990 period. From the three warm epochs, a paleodata-based scenario is deduced for the spatial distribution of temperature in a future climate, on the scale of continents. The conditions under which scenarios based on paleodata can be applied are discussed.     

High resolution time series of lead and zinc in sediments of Lake Constance

Sediments in Lake Constance have been dated by radiometric methods and lamination counting. Investigations into the concentrations of lead and zinc in the sediments were carried out to get detailed information about environmental history. Maximum concentrations were found at the beginning of the 1960's. The lead maximum contamination occurred 3 years before the zinc maximum and has an unidentified source. The use of coal, leaded gasoline or the remobilization within the sediment could be excluded to result in the lead maximum. The fluctuations in zinc contamination could be explained with increasing and decreasing pollution (industry, coal burning, building of sewage plants). The greatest fluctuations of both metals occur during periods of great change in the economic history of Germany.     

Structural defects in microcrystalline silica

The structure of the microcrystalline silica varieties chalcedony, flint, moganite, opal-C and -CT is characterized by X-ray powder diffractometry and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The role of impurities is investigated by infrared spectroscopy and chemical analysis. Microcrystalline opal, chalcedony and flint have a disordered intergrowth structure composed of cristobalite and tridymite domains in opal, and quartz and moganite domains in chalcedony and flint. Each constituent phase has different cell dimensions and symmetry. The main impurity is water which is enriched at the intergrowth interfaces. Density and refractive indices of microcrystalline silica depend on the water content.     

Magmatism and metamorphism in the Ladakh Himalayas (the Indus-Tsangpo suture zone)

Ladakh (India) provides a complete geological section through the northwestern part of the Himalayas from Kashmir to Tibet. Within this section the magmatic, metamorphic and geotectonic evolution of the northern Himalayan orogeny has been studied using petrographic, geochemical and isotope analytical techniques.The beginning of the Himalayan cycle was marked by large basaltic extrusions (Panjal Trap) of Permian to Lower Triassic age at the “northern” margin of the Gondwana continent (Indian Shield). These continental type tholeiitic basalts were followed by a more alkaline volcanism within the Triassic to Jurassic Lamayuru unit of the Gondwana continental margin.Lower Jurassic to Cretaceous oceanic crust and sediments (ophiolitic mélange s.s.) accompany the Triassic to Cretaceous flysch deposits within the Indus-Tsangpo suture zone, the major structural divide between the Indian Shield (High Himalaya) and the Tibetan Platform. So far, no relic of Paleozoic oceanic crust has been found.Subduction of the Tethyan oceanic crust during Upper Jurassic and Cretaceous time produced an island arc represented by tholeiitic and calc-alkaline volcanic rock series (Dras volcanics) and related intrusives accompanied by volcaniclastic flysch deposits towards the Tibetan continental margin.Subsequent to the subduction of oceanic crust, large volumes of calc-alkaline plutons (Trans-Himalayan or Kangdese plutons) intruded the Tibetan continental margin over a distance of 2000 km and partly the Dras island arc in the Ladakh region.The collision of the Indian Shield and Tibetan Platform started during the middle to upper Eocene and caused large-scale, still active intracrustal thrusting as well as the piling up of the Himalayan nappes. The tectonically highest of these nappes is built up of oceanic crust and huge slices of peridotitic oceanic mantle (Spongtang klippe).In the High Himalayas the tectonic activity was accompanied and outlasted by a Barrovian-type metamorphism that affected Triassic sediments of the Kashmir-Nun-Kun synclinorium up to kyanite/staurolite grade and the deeper-seated units up to sillimanite grade. Cooling ages of micas are around 20 m.y. (muscovite) and 13 m.y. (biotite). Towards the Indus-Tsangpo suture zone metamorphism decreases with no obvious discontinuity through greenschist, prehnite-pumpellyite to zeolite grade. Remnants of possibly an Eo-Himalayan blueschist metamorphism have been found within thrust zones accompanying ophiolitic mélange in the suture zone.     

Metamorphic gradients in burial metamorphosed vesicular lavas: Comparison of basalt and spilite in Cretaceous basic flows from central Chile

Partial spilitization of a 9 km thick pile of flood basalts with highly vesicular flow tops gave rise to patterns of secondary mineralogy at different scales: (a) a local pattern of mineralogical variation from the almost unaltered bottom towards the altered top of each flow, and (b) an overall pattern, comparing flow tops throughout the pile, with changes in mineralogical composition within a sequence of metamorphic zones and facies. The local patterns mimic the trend of the overall pattern, but are of opposite direction and telescoped. Thus, a gradual ordering and Andepletion of the secondary albite and increases in the Fe^*/Al ratio of epidote and pumpellyite upwards within individual flows are comparable in range to corresponding overall changes downwards throughout several kilometres. The mineralogical changes within the flows diminish in range towards the more altered deeper part of the pile.The local and overall patterns cannot be interpreted in terms of grade. They represent trends from metastable towards stable equilibrium, this latter only approached in the flow tops of the lower part of the pile. The patterns of secondary mineralogy were formed by an interplay of metamorphic gradients at different scales at any given time, and as burial proceeded. The overall pattern was caused by depth-controlled gradients: increasing P _fluid, temperature and temperature-induced increase of reaction rates, and decreasing fO₂ (downwards in the pile). The local patterns resulted from permeability-controlled gradients: increasing reaction rates, fO₂ and contrast in chemical activity between different domains, and decreasing P _fluid (upwards in each flow). The mineralogical observations reported in this paper fall into line if the overall temperature-induced increase of reaction rates and the local permeability-controlled rate factors played the leading role during burial metamorphism of the pile.