Potentially modified hydropower production under climate change in the Italian Alps

We present an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower production within a paradigmatic, very highly exploited cryospheric area of upper Valtellina valley in the Italian Alps. Based on dependable and unique hydrological measures from our high‐altitude hydrometric network Idrostelvio during 2006–2015, we set up the Poly‐Hydro model to mimic the cryospheric processes driving hydrological flow formation in this high‐altitude area. We then set up an optimization tool, which we call Poly‐Power, to maximize the revenue of the plant manager under given hydrological regimes, namely, by proper operation of the hydroelectric production scheme (reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants) of the area. We then pursue hydrological projections until 2100, feeding Poly‐Hydro with the downscaled outputs of three general circulation models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, under the scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We assess hydrological flows in two reference decades, that is, at half century (2040–2049), and end of century (2090–2099). We then feed the so obtained hydrological scenarios as inputs to Poly‐Power, and we project future production of hydroelectric power, with and without reoperation of the system. The average annual stream flows for hydropower production decreases along the century under our scenarios (?21 to +7%, on average ? 5% at half century; ?17 to ?2%, average ? 8%, end of century), with ice cover melting unable to offset such decrease. Reduction in snowfall and increase in liquid rainfall are the main factors affecting the modified hydrological regime. Energy production (and revenues) at half century may increase under our scenarios (?9 to +15%, +3% on average). At the end of century in spite of a projected increase on average (?7 to +6%, +1% on average), under the warmest scenario RCP 8.5 decrease of energy production is consistently projected (?4% on average). Our results provide an array of potential scenarios of modified hydropower production under future climate change and may be used for brain storming of adaptation strategies.     

A transparent aqueous-saturated sand surrogate for use in physical modeling

This paper presents the geotechnical properties of a new family of synthetic transparent soils made of fused quartz, saturated with a matched refractive index water-based sucrose solution, suitable for modeling the behavior of sand in small-scale model tests. The dry density ranged between 1,134 and 1,358 kg/m³. The peak angle of friction was found to range from 46° to 57°. The average hydraulic conductivity was 1.7 × 10^?5 cm/s. The compressibility index (C _c) ranged from 0.34 to 0.57. The main advantage of fused quartz over available sand surrogates made of silica gel is that its solid structure better models the behavior of natural sand. The matching pore fluids are inert and non-toxic, which facilitates their use in educational settings. The availability of a safe and easy-to-use transparent sand permits measurement of three-dimensional deformation patterns and flow characteristics in controlled research experiments. The introduction of an aqueous solution permits the use of two immiscible pore fluids, one made of mineral oil and the other made of a sucrose solution, for modeling multiphase flow problems, as well as coupled flow-deformation problems.     

NGC 6404 and 6583: two neglected intermediate-age open clusters located in the Galactic Centre direction

We report on VI charge-coupled device photometry of two fields centred in the region of the open clusters NGC 6404 and 6583 down to   V = 22.0  . So far these clusters have never been studied, and we provide for the first time estimates of their fundamental parameters, namely, radial extent, age, distance and reddening. We find that the radius of NGC 6404 is 2.0 arcmin, as previously proposed, while the radius of NGC 6583 is 1.0 arcmin, significantly lower than previous estimates. Both clusters turn out to be of intermediate age (0.5–1.0 Gyr old), and located inside the solar ring, at a Galactocentric distance of about 6.5 kpc. These results make these objects very interesting targets for spectroscopic follow-up to measure their metallicity. In fact, they might allow us to enlarge by more than 1 kpc the baseline of the radial abundance gradient in the Galactic disc towards the Galactic Centre direction. This baseline is currently rather narrow especially for clusters of this age.     

Algorithms for Stellar Perturbation Computations on Oort Cloud Comets

We investigate different approximate methods of computing the perturbations on the orbits of Oort cloud comets caused by passing stars, by checking them against an accurate numerical integration using Everhart’s RA15 code. The scenario under study is the one relevant for long-term simulations of the cloud’s response to a predefined set of stellar passages. Our sample of stellar encounters simulates those experienced by the Solar System currently, but extrapolated over a time of 10¹⁰ years. We measure the errors of perihelion distance perturbations for high-eccentricity orbits introduced by several estimators – including the classical impulse approximation and Dybczyński’s (1994, Celest. Mech. Dynam. Astron. 58, 1330–1338) method – and we study how they depend on the encounter parameters (approach distance and relative velocity). We introduce a sequential variant of Dybczyński’s approach, cutting the encounter into several steps whereby the heliocentric motion of the comet is taken into account. For the scenario at hand this is found to offer an efficient means to obtain accurate results for practically any domain of the parameter space.     

Comments on the comment on the Guzman-Bianchi type-VII h solutions

In this paper, we again discuss the new Brans-Dicke-Bianchi type-VII _h perfect fluid solutions, first given by us (Guzman, 1989). It is shown that the objections presented by Lorenz-Petzold (1989) are misleading. The dust case =0 is discussed.     

Impact of ocean acidification on the carbonate sediment budget of a temperate mixed beach

The production of sediments by carbonate-producing ecosystems is an important input for beach sediment budgets in coastal areas where no terrigenous input occurs. Calcifying organisms are a major source of bioclastic carbonate sediment for coastal systems. Increased levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere are leading to an increase in the partial pressure of CO₂ on ocean seawater, causing ocean acidification (OA), with direct consequences for the pH of ocean waters. Most studies of OA focus on its impact on marine ecosystems. The impact of OA on carbonate-producing ecosystems could be to reduce the amount of sediments supplied to temperate coastal systems. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of the predicted OA on the long-term sediment budget of a temperate Mediterranean mixed carbonate beach and dune system. Based on projections of OA we estimated a fall of about 31% in the present bioclastic carbonate sediment deposition rate, with the biggest decreases seen in the dunes (? 46%). OA is also expected to affect the carbonate sediment reservoirs, increasing the dissolution of CaCO₃and causing net sediment loss from the system (~ 50,000 t century^?1). In the long-term, OA could also play a primary role in the response of these systems to sea-level rise. Indeed, the reduction in the quantity of carbonate sediments provided to the system may affect the speed with which the system is able to adapt to sea-level rise, by increasing wave run-up, and may promote erosion of dunes and subaerial beaches.     

Empirical assessment of adaptation to climate change impacts of mountain households: development and application of an Adaptation Capability Index

The present study proposes an index to assess the potential for adaptation to climate change for households in the mountainous regions. The index provides a realistic approach to recognize social and natural factors which contribute to successful adaptation and addresses several household functions, such as social networking, livelihood strategy, adjustment strategies, resource availability and accessibility. The proposed Adaptation Capability Index (ACI) is analytically defined, mathematically formulated and field tested on mountainous households in urban and semi-urban regions of the Uttarakhand Himalaya in India. To gather data on the topic relevant to the ACI, a household scale questionnaire was developed and administered to 120 heads of households through face-to-face interviews. The results highlight higher adaptive capability of urban households and low adaptation capacity of rural households due to poor farm productivity, low accessibility and availability of resources and technological input. Future programs and policies must include and implement regulations to remedy attributive factors responsible for higher adaptation. This paper may be applicable to other mountainous regions and may provide insights for effective adaptation strategies to climate change.