Risk assessment strategies for the reactivation of earth flows in the Northern Apennines (Italy)

The aim of this paper is to analyze the reactivation mechanism of ancient earth flows, with a view to gleaning information that can subsequently be utilized to formulate a risk-reduction strategy. All considerations made herein are the result of direct experience and observation of actual events which have occurred over the past few decades in the Northern Apennines. Particular attention has been paid to the analysis of the evolution of landslides during actual reactivation, acknowledging a typical, recurring succession of events that precede the failure of the slope. The hazard assessment of these large landslide bodies, which are of slope scale, constitutes a thorny problem, especially in view of the inapplicability of traditional deterministic models such as limit equilibrium stability analysis. Nevertheless, a site-specific assessment of probability of reactivation of these large and ancient earth flows is fundamental to effective land-use planning.     

U?Pb and 40Ar?39Ar geochronology of Palaeozoic units in the northern Apennines: determining protolith age and alpine evolution using the Calamita Schist and Ortano Porphyroid

In the northern Apennines, the Palaeozoic basement involved in the Late Oligocene–Middle Miocene nappe stack contains metamorphic units for which hypothetical ages have been assigned on the basis of lithological correlations with the Palaeozoic formations of the Variscan chain in Sardinia. This uncertainty concerning the age poses limitations to reconstructing the Palaeozoic stratigraphy, defining the Alpine and pre‐Alpine histories and correlations with other domains of the Variscan chain. We present the U Pb age of detrital zircon and the ⁴⁰Ar ³⁹Ar age of metamorphic muscovite for the Calamita Schist and Ortano Porphyroid, two metamorphic units of undetermined Palaeozoic age cropping out in the eastern Elba Island. The radioisotopic data allows us to: (i) define the Early Carboniferous and Middle Ordovician ages for the Calamita Schist and Ortano Porphyroid, respectively, as well as their derivation (flysch deposit and magmatic rocks); (ii) pose some constraints concerning their alpine tectonic and metamorphic histories. These new data generate a more precise reconstruction of the Palaeozoic sequence in the northern Apennines, and they document that the Palaeozoic basement involved in the alpine deformation underwent internal stacking with an inversion of the original sequence. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Weakening climatic signal since mid-20th century in European larch tree-ring chronologies at different altitudes from the Adamello-Presanella Massif (Italian Alps)

Tree rings from temperature-limited environments are highly sensitive climate proxies, widely used to reconstruct past climate parameters for periods prior to the availability of instrumental data and to analyse the effect of recent global warming on tree growth. An analysis of the climatic signal in five high-elevation tree-ring width chronologies of European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) from the tops of five different glacial valleys in the Italian Central Alps revealed that they contain a strong summer-temperature signal and that tree-ring growth is especially influenced by June temperatures. However, a moving correlation function analysis revealed a recent loss of the June temperature signal in the tree-ring chronologies. This signal reduction primarily involves the two lowest-altitude chronologies. It is probable that the observed increasing importance of late-summer temperature for tree-ring growth over the past 50 yr is an effect of the lengthening growing season and of the variations in the climate/tree-ring relationship over time. All the chronologies considered, especially those at the highest altitudes, show an increasing negative influence of June precipitation on tree-ring growth. The climatic signal recorded in tree-ring chronologies from the Italian Central Alps varies over time and is also differentially influenced by climatic parameters according to site elevation.     

Regionalization of rainfall thresholds: an aid to landslide hazard evaluation

 Rainfall, soil properties, and morphology are major factors controlling shallow landsliding. A series of meteorological events that triggered soil slips in northern Italy were studied to define rainfall thresholds and to evaluate a possible regionalization. Soil properties, triggering rainfall, and local lithological and morphometrical settings of different sites were used as input to an infiltration model. The approach allows the recognition of several triggering conditions in the Piedmont, Pre-Alpine and Alpine regions. This suggests the need for different rainfall thresholds with respect to those derived with other methods. Intensity versus rainfall duration relationships become particularly important when related to soil permeability and thickness, and demonstrate the role of antecedent precipitation. Events with exceptional water discharge from obstructed road culverts reveal the role played by anthropic structures in triggering such phenomena. Different approaches to slope stability analysis are shown, taking into account bedrock lithology, topography, seepage, and local saturation conditions. Received: 23 October 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

Early‐middle Holocene land snail shell stable isotope record from Grotta di Latronico 3 (southern Italy)

This paper compares stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) records of early–middle Holocene land snail shells from the archaeological deposits of Grotta di Latronico 3 (LTR3; southern Italy) with modern shell isotopic data. No substantial interspecific variability was observed in shell δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸Os) of modern specimens (Pomatias elegans, Cornu aspersum, Eobania vermiculata, Helix ligata and Marmorana fuscolabiata). In contrast, interspecific shell δ¹³C (δ¹³Cs) variability was significant, probably due to different feeding behaviour among species. The δ¹⁸Os values of living land snails suggest that species hibernate for a long period during colder months, so that the signal of ¹⁸O‐depleted winter rainfall in their δ¹⁸Os is lost. This suggests that δ¹⁸Os and δ¹³Cs values of Pomatias elegans from this archaeological succession provide valuable clues for seasonal (spring–autumn) climatic conditions during the early–middle Holocene. The δ¹⁸Os values of fossil specimens are significantly lower than in modern shells and in agreement with other palaeoclimatic records, suggesting a substantial increase of precipitation and/or persistent changes in air mass source trajectories over this region between ca. 8.8 cal ka BP and 6.2–6.7 ka ago. The δ¹³Cs trend suggests a transition from a slightly ¹³C‐enriched to a ¹³C‐depleted diet between early and middle Holocene compared to present conditions. We postulate that this δ¹³Cs trend might reflect changes in the C3 vegetation community, potentially combined with other environmental factors such as regional moisture increase and the progressive decrease of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical and isotopic equilibrium between CO2 and CH4 in fumarolic gas discharges: Generation of CH4 in arc magmatic-hydrothermal systems

The chemical and isotopic composition of fumarolic gases emitted from Nisyros Volcano, Greece, and of a single gas sample from Vesuvio, Italy, was investigated in order to determine the origin of methane (CH₄) within two subduction-related magmatic-hydrothermal environments.Apparent temperatures derived from carbon isotope partitioning between CH₄ and CO₂ of around 340°C for Nisyros and 470°C for Vesuvio correlate well with aquifer temperatures as measured directly and/or inferred from compositional data using the H₂O-H₂-CO₂-CO-CH₄ geothermometer. Thermodynamic modeling reveals chemical equilibrium between CH₄, CO₂ and H₂O implying that carbon isotope partitioning between CO₂ and CH₄ in both systems is controlled by aquifer temperature.N₂/³He and CH₄/³He ratios of Nisyros fumarolic gases are unusually low for subduction zone gases and correspond to those of midoceanic ridge environments. Accordingly, CH₄ may have been primarily generated through the reduction of CO₂ by H₂ in the absence of any organic matter following a Fischer-Tropsch-type reaction. However, primary occurrence of minor amounts of thermogenic CH₄ and subsequent re-equilibration with co-existing CO₂ cannot be ruled out entirely. CO₂/³He ratios and δ¹³C_CO2 values imply that the evolved CO₂ either derives from a metasomatized mantle or is a mixture between two components, one outgassing from an unaltered mantle and the other released by thermal breakdown of marine carbonates. The latter may contain traces of organic matter possibly decomposing to CH₄ during thermometamorphism.     

Archaeoseismological evidence of past earthquakes in Rome (fifth to ninth century A.D.) used to quantify dating uncertainties and coseismic damage

The transformation of Rome during the Late Antiquity and the Early Middle Ages has been investigated by archaeologists and historians. Social and political changes are the main aspects which led to a progressive modification of the urban framework; abandonment, spoliation and transformation of buildings are quite diffused as documented by the archaeological literature. The consequence of these practices is a higher vulnerability of the buildings which, from the seismological point of view, played a main role in increasing the effects of seismic shaking. A number of earthquakes have struck Rome during the period of investigation (fifth to ninth century A.D.), known from historical sources: 443, 484–508, 618, 801, 847; in some cases (443, 484–508, 801) damage has been documented. In contrast, the archaeological sources characterise collapse layers and evidence of destruction at different sites with changing and not always conclusive chronological constraints. Consequently, collapse and destruction have been alternatively attributed to the above-mentioned earthquakes. Through a geoarchaeological and stratigraphic analysis of potentially coseismic collapse units, we want (1) to describe the archaeoseismic evidence derived from recent excavations and from the available literature (e.g. Piazza Madonna di Loreto, Piazza Venezia, Palazzo Valentini Crypta Balbi, Colosseo, Basilica Hilariana, Basilica di Santa Petronilla, Santa Maria Antiqua,…); (2) to discuss the chronological problems and the uncertainty of attribution of the collapse units to known historical earthquakes; (3) to discuss the earthquake damage exaggeration due to erroneous attribution of seismic origin to the evidence of destruction derived from archaeological data. Finally, we will infer the role that earthquakes may have had on the development of the urban landscape in the fifth to ninth century A.D.     

Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins

This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings.     

Deciphering late Quaternary land snail shell δO and δC from Franchthi Cave (Argolid,Greece)

This paper investigates the stable isotopic composition from late Pleistocene–Holocene (~ 13 to ~ 10.5 cal ka BP) shells of the land snail Helix figulina, from Franchthi Cave (Greece). It explores the palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental implications of the isotope palaeoecology of archaeological shells at the time of human occupation of the cave. Modern shells from around the cave were also analysed and their isotopic signatures compared with those of the archaeological shells. The carbon isotope composition of modern shells depicts the consumption of C₃ vegetation. Shell oxygen isotopic values are consistent with other Mediterranean snail shells from coastal areas. Combining empirical linear regression and an evaporative model, the δ¹⁸Os suggest that modern snails in the study area are active during periods of higher relative humidity and lower rainfall δ¹⁸O, probably at night. Late glacial and early Holocene δ¹⁸Os show lower values compared to modern ones. Early Holocene δ¹⁸Os values likely track enhanced moisture and isotopic changes in the precipitation source. By contrast, lower late glacial δ¹⁸O could reflect lower temperatures and δ¹⁸Op, compared to the present day. Shell carbon isotope values indicate the presence of C₃ vegetation as main source of carbon to late glacial and early Holocene snails.