Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Silurian and Devonian systems

The Ediacara mineral field is situated 30 km W of Beltana on the western margins of the Flinders Ranges, South Australia, and consists of silver‐lead and copper deposits in lower Cambrian carbonate rocks that contain anomalous base‐metal contents throughout the Adelaide Geosyncline. The lower Cambrian rocks, which consist of the basal Parachilna Formation and overlying Ajax Limestone, rest disconformably on the Precambrian, and at Ediacara occupy a shallow N‐S elongate syncline near the hinge zone of the Adelaide Geosyncline. The main primary ore minerals of the silver‐lead mineralization are galena and pyrite, with very minor chalcopyrite and sphalerite, and rare tetrahedrite and pearceite. The gangue consists mainly of silica (both chalcedony and quartz), with minor dolomite and rare barite. The mineralization is stratabound and occurs in conformable zones, the lowest of which commences about 30–50 m above the base of the Cambrian sequence. The host to the silver‐lead mineralization, the Ajax Limestone, can be subdivided into three units which represent a set of lithologies, structures and organic traces indicative of a shallow near‐shore carbonate environment. The silver‐lead mineralization is mainly present in sandy and laminated dolomites which were deposited in an environment ranging from sub‐tidal to bar and channel and tidal flat, respectively. Four types of mineralization have been recognized; disseminated sulphides of syngenetic and/or diagenetic origin and epigenetic concentrations along stylolites, in veins and as breccia fillings. Post‐depositional solution activity has affected a large proportion of the carbonate sequence. The effects of this activity range from stylolites through stylobreccias to solution collapse breccias. The epigenetic concentrations of mineralizations have apparently been formed by the remobilization of the disseminated sulphides during solution activity. The ore and gangue minerals of the epigenetic mineralization display both euhedral forms and distinct colloform banding, and framboidal textures have also been observed in both pyrite and galena. There is evidence of repeated episodic precipitation and no simple paragenetic sequence can be recognized. Fluid inclusions in silica and dolomite associated with the epigenetic mineralization have homogenization temperatures of 159 to 199°C and freezing temperatures that indicate the fluids to be saline brines containing NaCl with CaCl₂ and/or MgCl₂. Sulphur isotope analyses show a range of 8³⁴S values from ‐12.5 to +8.6 per mil, with no evidence of significant differences between the four types of mineralization. The data suggest deposition of the disseminated sulphides as a result of biological reduction of seawater sulphate in a system partially open with respect to sulphate supply. Subsequent remobilization of sulphides apparently involved little or no sulphur isotope fractionation. The Ediacara silver‐lead deposits have many features in common with Mississippi Valley‐type lead‐zinc deposits and appear to have similarities in terms of genesis, in that the epigenetic mineralization has been formed as a result of post‐depositional solution activity during diagenesis in a sedimentary basin. The scale of transport of the metals deposited as the epigenetic mineralization at Ediacara appears, however, to have been very much less than that of the metals in other Mississippi Valley‐type deposits.     

Effect of simulated sampling disturbance on creep behaviour of rock salt

Summary This article presents the results of an experimental study of creep behaviour of a rock salt under uniaxial compression as a function of prestrain, simulating sampling disturbance. The prestrain was produced by radial compressive loading of the specimens prior to creep testing. The tests were conducted on an artifical salt to avoid excessive scattering of the results.The results obtained from several series of single-stage creep tests show that, at short-term, the creep response of salt is strongly affected by the preloading history of samples. The nature of this effect depends upon the intensity of radial compressive preloading, and its magnitude is a function of the creep stress level. The effect, however, decreases with increasing plastic deformation, indicating that large creep strains may eventually lead to a complete loss of preloading memory.     

MM5-HPAC simulation experiments

Summary We evaluate mesoscale model predicted boundary-layer flow and the subsequent HPAC (Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability) dispersion computation. The HPAC software allows for prediction of the effects of surface release of hazardous material into the atmosphere and collateral damage on civilian populations using either observed or numerical weather model data. The advanced mesoscale weather model MM5 was employed in the study. The real-data MM5 model simulations were verified with high-resolution observations from the West Texas Mesonet. MM5 worked well in simulating meteorologically relatively quiescent conditions. We examined the sensitivity of HPAC computations to the MM5 model’s grid resolution, lateral boundary conditions, and input weather data. Results suggest that the MM5-HPAC conjugation can provide useful prediction of airborne transport of hazardous materials near the surface. However, the accuracy of diffusion computations strongly depends on the performance of MM5, which in turn is likely to be a function of weather scenarios. A given state-of-the-art mesoscale model may perform well in some cases but not in others. There is a potential benefit of using several different model winds separately to run HPAC. A composite result of the HPAC runs could give a more comprehensive depiction of the transport of surface hazardous agents.     

On‐line Dangers?: Geographies of Parents’ Fears for Children's Safety in Cyberspace

Children are considered particularly important in debates about the possibilities and dangers of information and communication technologies (ICT). Discourses on ICT contain paradoxical representations of childhood. On the one hand, unlike most other understandings of child/adult relations, these discourses assume children to be equally, if not more, technologically competent than adults. On the other hand, children's very competence at using ICT is alleged to be putting them “at risk” of abuse or corruption. This paper addresses these moral panics about children and ICT by exploring to what extent and why parents are concerned about their children's safety in on‐line space. In doing so the paper reflects on the extent to which anxieties about children in cyberspace replicate concerns about public outdoor space and the way networked computers emerge as different tools in different households.     

Chemistry of peralkaline phonolite dykes from the Grønnedal-Íka area,South Greenland

The chemical variation observed in a suite of fifteen aphyric peralkaline phonolite dykes of mid-Gardar age from the vicinity of the Grønnedal-Íka alkaline complex in south-west Greenland is discussed. From relationships in the system Na₂O-K₂O-Al₂O₃-SiO₂ it is argued that the members of the series are related by the fractionation of feldspar approximating to Ab₅₅Or₄₀An₅ in composition, along with augite and lesser amounts of other ferromagnesian minerals. The bearing of these rocks on phase equilibria in the analogous natural system is discussed, and consideration is given to the possible origins of the initial peralkaline phonolite magma.     

Gold in “primitive” Archaean volcanics

Gold concentrations have been determined by neutron activation in sixteen samples of komatiites and related rocks from Barberton, South Africa. All the rocks give Au values in the ranges 1–1.5 ppb with no evidence for anomalously high values in such old primitive igneous types. As the rocks are extensively hydrated, it is possible that Au has been leached from the rocks during later hydration processes.     

The Ameralik dykes of West Greenland,the earliest known basaltic rocks intruding stable continental crust

The pre-3100 m.y. old Ameralik dykes from West Greenland show a range in primary composition from primitive low-K, low-Ti tholeiites virtually identical in composition to ridge basalts of modern ocean crust, to more differentiated basaltic rocks similar to some present-day continental tholeiites. Primary variations are distinguished from secondary metasomatism using REE patterns, Ni, Sr, Ti and Zr contents and Mg number as a guide to the stage of differentiation reached by a particular sample and comparing this to the amount of alkalis present. The chemistry of the dykes is compared to that of metabasalts from Archaean greenstone belts and the use of chemistry alone to distinguish the crustal environment under which Archaean basic rocks were formed is questioned.     

A multiproxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh,Northern Ireland: a critical examination of the link between bog surface wetness and solar variability

A proxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland, is presented. The record spans the interval between 2850 cal. yr BC and cal. yr AD 1000 and chronological control is achieved through the use of tephrochronology and ¹⁴C dating, including a wiggle‐match on one section of the record. Palaeoclimatic inferences are based on a combination of a testate amoebae‐derived water table reconstruction, peat humification and plant macrofossil analyses. This multiproxy approach enables proxy‐specific effects to be identified. Major wet shifts are registered in the proxies at ca. 1510 cal. yr BC, 750 cal. yr BC and cal. yr AD 470. Smaller magnitude shifts to wetter conditions are also recorded at ca. 380 cal. yr BC, 150 cal. yr BC, cal. yr AD 180, and cal. yr AD 690. It is hypothesised that the wet shifts are not merely local events as they appear to be linked to wider climate deteriorations in northwest Europe. Harmonic analysis of the proxies illustrates statistically significant periodicities of 580, 423–373, 307 and 265 years that may be related to wider Holocene climate cycles. This paper illustrates how the timing of climate changes registered in peat profiles records can be precisely constrained using tephrochronology to examine possible climatic responses to solar forcing. Relying on interpolated chronologies with considerable dating uncertainty must be avoided if the climatic responses to forcing mechanisms are to be fully understood. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mycological evidence of coprophagy from the feces of an Alaskan Late Glacial mammoth

Dung from a mammoth was preserved under frozen conditions in Alaska. The mammoth lived during the early part of the Late Glacial interstadial (ca 12,300 BP). Microfossils, macroremains and ancient DNA from the dung were studied and the chemical composition was determined to reconstruct both the paleoenvironment and paleobiology of this mammoth. Pollen spectra are dominated by Poaceae, Artemisia and other light-demanding taxa, indicating an open, treeless landscape (‘mammoth steppe’). Fruits and seeds support this conclusion. The dung consists mainly of cyperaceous stems and leaves, with a minor component of vegetative remains of Poaceae. Analyses of fragments of the plastid rbcL gene and trnL intron and nrITS1 region, amplified from DNA extracted from the dung, supplemented the microscopic identifications. Many fruit bodies with ascospores of the coprophilous fungus Podospora conica were found inside the dung ball, indicating that the mammoth had eaten dung. The absence of bile acids points to mammoth dung. This is the second time that evidence for coprophagy of mammoths has been derived from the presence of fruit bodies of coprophilous fungi in frozen dung. Coprophagy might well have been a common habit of mammoths. Therefore, we strongly recommend that particular attention should be given to fungal remains in future fossil dung studies.