Properties and Comparison of Some Kriging Sub-model Aggregation Methods

Mathematical Geosciences - Kriging is a widely employed technique across computer experiments, machine learning and geostatistics. An important challenge for kriging is its high costs when dealing...     

Origin and variability of resource-grade marine ferromanganese nodules and crusts in the Pacific Ocean: A review of biogeochemical and physical controls

Marine ferromanganese nodules and crusts containing Mn, Cu, Ni and Co in the most promising resource-grade concentrations and quantities, together with Fe and Zn (all elements of biogeochemical importance) are found far from land on the deep seafloor of the Pacific Ocean. The biogeochemical, chemical and physical mechanisms contributing to their formation, distribution, abundance and – for these six elements – variability in their concentrations in these deposits, are the main focus of the present review. The mechanisms addressed include biological productivity, sedimentation types and rates, bottom water characteristics, the Calcium Carbonate Compensation Depth, the depth and intensity of the oxygen minimum zone, and biogeochemical characteristics of the six focal elements. Particular attention is given to comparisons between the deposits found in the north and the south Pacific, in order to present an overarching view of our current understanding of the mechanisms that apply to both nodules and crusts in both oceanic hemispheres, including examination of the possible existence of a marine ferromanganese oxide continuum. The renewed interest in the commercial exploitation of these deposits has stimulated a welcome increase in scientific research that is essential to informing the public discourse on seabed mining. We briefly reflect on the work addressed in this review in that context.     

Climate and climate change in western canada as simulated by the Canadian regional climate model

Abstract

A þrst climate simulation performed with the novel Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented. The CRCM is based on fully elastic non‐hydrostatic þeld equations, which are solved with an efþcient semi‐implicit semi‐Lagrangian (SISL) marching algorithm, and on the parametrization package of subgrid‐scale physical effects of the second‐generation Canadian Global Climate Model (GCMII). Two 5‐year integrations of the CRCM nested with GCMII simulated data as lateral boundary conditions are made for conditions corresponding to current and doubled CO₂ scenarios. For these simulations the CRCM used a grid size of 45 km on a polar‐stereographic projection, 20 scaled‐height levels and a time step of 15 min; the nesting GCMII has a spectral truncation of T32, 10 hybrid‐pressure levels and a time step of 20 min. These simulations serve to document: (1) the suitability of the SISL numerical scheme for regional climate modelling, (2) the use of GCMII physics at much higher resolution than in the nesting model, (3) the ability of the CRCM to add realistic regional‐scale climate information to global model simulations, and (4) the climate of the CRCM compared to that of GCMII under two greenhouse gases (GHG) scenarios.     

Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource.     

Impact of justice and solidarity variables on the acceptability of managed realignment

Sea-level rise due to climate change will have significant effects on coastal areas and populations. Adaptation policies recommend the managed realignment of the most vulnerable assets and activities. Despite their medium- and long-term benefits, these policies face significant friction due to social acceptability in the communities where they are implemented.

This article investigates the hypothesis that respecting principles of justice in the implementation of managed realignment should increase its acceptability. We compare preferences of those people who are exposed to the risk of climate-change-induced flooding and those who are not, as regards funding managed retreat policies and defining compensation criteria for assets at risk. The main theories of social justice provide the four principles included in the analysis: efficiency, need, responsibility and priority assigned to property rights.

A choice experiment survey was conducted with 258 residents of coastal and hinterland communities in the south of France. Four attributes were selected to define the managed realignment policy: the dialogue arrangements, the implementation period, the policy implementation schedule and the cost. The results show support for a relatively fast launch of these policies (within 15 years) but in stages and through a process of dialogue with the population. People's perceptions of the funding criteria reveal a preference for national solidarity. Finally, national funding of managed retreat policies and compensation criteria based on market prices have a significant positive influence on the acceptability of managed realignment policies, whereas introducing responsibility-based compensation criteria tends to favour the status quo over the adaptation policy.

Policy relevance

Prioritization of the funding criteria reveals the preference for national solidarity. Preferences for the justice criteria underpinning compensation reveal a great diversity of values. Besides implantation modalities, preferences for managed realignment policies depend on which level they are implemented at, on the expropriation criteria (the emphasis given to property rights, i.e. market price), on the attachment (people perceived as worst off, i.e. the property is their main residence rather than a second home or they have lower levels of income) and on the degree of responsibility (related to the date of purchase, i.e. on the information given at the time on the risk).     

Structure of the 5-minute solar oscillations 1976–1980

The discrete structure in the 5 min velocity oscillations of the solar surface has been confirmed by a re-analysis of data obtained between 1976 and 1979, and in addition a preliminary analysis of 1980 data show excellent consistency of the determined frequencies over the five year period. It is further shown that atmospheric transparency, as measured by the power in the solar intensity fluctuations, shows no correlation with the measured amplitude of the velocity fluctuations, over 2 orders of magnitude.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.     

First-order asymptotics for the eigenfrequencies of the Earth and application to the retrieval of large-scale lateral variations of structure

Summary . We present a variety of examples, showing systematic fluctuations as a function of angular order of measured eigenfrequencies for given normal modes of the Earth. The data are single station measurements from the GEOSCOPE network. Such fluctuations are attributed to departures from the lowest order asymptotic expression of the geometrical optics approximation. We derive first-order asymptotic expressions for the location parameter for all three components of the Earth's motion, by a method based on the stationary phase approximation and geometric relations on the unit sphere.
We illustrate the sensitivity of the fluctuations to the different parameters involved (source parameters, epicentral distance, laterally heterogeneous earth model) with synthetic examples corresponding to GEOSCOPE observations. Finally, we show the results of first attempts at inversion, which indicate that, when the fluctuations are taken into account, more accurate estimates of the great circle average eigenfrequencies can be obtained, and additional constraints put on the structure in the neighbourhood of the great circle.     

Effects of 12 years' operation of a sewage treatment plant on trace metal occurrence within a Mediterranean commercial sponge (Spongia officinalis, Demospongiae)

The present field study uses Spongia officinalis for assessing trace metals occurrence in time and space within Mediterranean rocky communities. Nine sites were selected in the Marseille area for studying spatial trends in 12 metal concentrations. Long term changes in 8 metal concentrations were assessed at sites that had been sampled before and 12 years after the opening of a treatment plant. Spongia officinalis highly concentrated all the trace metal surveyed excepted Hg and Cd. The overall contamination level registered provided a classification of the study sites which is congruent with that given by other studies on pollutant accumulation in neighbouring sandy-bottoms or benthic assemblages. Among the metals studied, Fe, Pb, Cr are those that best highlighted a pollution gradient. In the present study, only Cd concentration did not vary in space. Except for Ni, all pollutant concentrations clearly decreased between 1984 and 1999. This very impressive decrease in heavy metal concentrations within the Marseille area represents an indisputable evidence of the improvement of the seawater quality resulting from 12 years' operation of the Marseille sewage plant. Moreover, the significant decrease also recorded in the reference population at Port-Cros might reflect an overall improvement in the seawater quality of the NW Mediterranean.     

The age as a diagnostic of the dynamics of marine ecosystem models

The constituent-oriented age theory (CAT) worked out by Delhez et al. (1999) is a flexible tool that can be applied to diagnose complex models. It is shown here how this can be used to quantify the pace at which an ecosystem model works. At the cost of the introduction of one additional evolution equation for each compartment of the ecosystem model, the mean age of the biological material forming these compartments can be computed. The information obtained in this way complements the information provided by the concentration data; while the latter measures the standing stocks, the former provides an integrated assessment of the interaction rates and matter fluxes. The benefits of the method are demonstrated with a simple Lotka–Volterra system and a one-dimensional vertical model of the nitrogen cycle in the Ligurian Sea. The theory can be used to study the biological compartments individually or the ecosystem as a whole. In particular, the age is a valuable tool to quantify the overall cycling rate of nitrogen in the food web.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke