Analyzing hydrologic uncertainty and its impact upon decision making in water resources

Bayesian Inference and Decision Theory tools are applied to the problem of synthetic hydrology when model and parameter uncertainty exist. Issues such as optimal parameter estimation, use of synthetic generation in design problems, and the effects of parameter uncertainty on statistical estimation are discussed and applied to the problem of reservoir slorage-yield analysis.     

A constitutive model for sand in triaxial compression

Although there is a large number of constitutive models for sand available in the literature it is believed that a fresh approach, striking a balance between complexity and theoretical rigour, is desirable. The approach here has certain conceptual links with the Cam Clay series of elastic–plastic models, but includes the more general starting assumption that the yield function, plastic potential and failure locus should be given quite distinct mathematical expressions. Possible physical bases for the proposed forms are discussed. Ways in which the parameters required to define the model may be determined are suggested and the use of the model is then demonstrated. Firstly, it is shown that, where a limited set of experimental data is available, the model is flexible enough to be able to match the test results. Secondly, it is shown that, where a wide range of test results has been produced, it is possible to determine the model constitutive parameters from a small number of tests and proceed to make satisfactory predictionsfor other, quite different, types of test. The model is developed for sand at a single initial density, but the way in which the constitutive parameters might be expected to vary with density is discussed. The model is described for conditions of triaxial compression, and extension to more general stress states will be needed before it can be put to the test of incorporation in, for example, a finite element program.     

From the Sun to the Earth: The 13 May 2005 Coronal Mass Ejection

We report the results of a multi-instrument, multi-technique, coordinated study of the solar eruptive event of 13 May 2005. We discuss the resultant Earth-directed (halo) coronal mass ejection (CME), and the effects on the terrestrial space environment and upper Earth atmosphere. The interplanetary CME (ICME) impacted the Earth’s magnetosphere and caused the most-intense geomagnetic storm of 2005 with a Disturbed Storm Time (Dst) index reaching ?263 nT at its peak. The terrestrial environment responded to the storm on a global scale. We have combined observations and measurements from coronal and interplanetary remote-sensing instruments, interplanetary and near-Earth in-situ measurements, remote-sensing observations and in-situ measurements of the terrestrial magnetosphere and ionosphere, along with coronal and heliospheric modelling. These analyses are used to trace the origin, development, propagation, terrestrial impact, and subsequent consequences of this event to obtain the most comprehensive view of a geo-effective solar eruption to date. This particular event is also part of a NASA-sponsored Living With a Star (LWS) study and an on-going US NSF-sponsored Solar, Heliospheric, and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE) community investigation.     

Light-toned layered deposits in Juventae Chasma, Mars

We examine hypotheses for the formation of light-toned layered deposits in Juventae Chasma using a combination of data from Mars Global Surveyor's Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC), Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES), as well as Mars Odyssey's Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS). We divide Juventae Chasma into geomorphic units of (i) chasm wall rock, (ii) heavily cratered hummocky terrain, (iii) a mobile and largely crater-free sand sheet on the chasm floor, (iv) light-toned layered outcrop (LLO) material, and (v) chaotic terrain. Using surface temperatures derived from THEMIS infrared data and slopes from MOLA, we derive maps of thermal inertia, which are consistent with the geomorphic units that we identify. LLO thermal inertias range from ∼400 to 850 J m⁻² K⁻¹ s^−1/2. Light-toned layered outcrops are distributed over a remarkably wide elevation range () from the chasm floor to the adjacent plateau surface. Geomorphic features, the absence of small craters, and high thermal inertia show that the LLOs are composed of sedimentary rock that is eroding relatively rapidly in the present epoch. We also present evidence for exhumation of LLO material from the west wall of the chasm, within chaotic and hummocky terrains, and within a small depression in the adjacent plateau. The data imply that at least some of the LLO material was deposited long before the adjacent Hesperian plateau basalts, and that Juventae Chasma underwent, and may still be undergoing, enlargement along its west wall due to wall rock collapse, chaotic terrain evolution, and exposure and removal of LLO material. The new data allow us to reassess possible origins of the LLOs. Gypsum, one of the minerals reported elsewhere as found in Juventae Chasma LLO material, forms only at low temperatures () and thus excludes a volcanic origin. Instead, the data are consistent with either multiple occurrences of lacustrine or airfall deposition over an extended period of time prior to emplacement of Hesperian lava flows on the plateau above the chasm.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.     

Factors influencing biodeposit production by the New Zealand freshwater mussel Echyridella menziesii

Laboratory experiments on the New Zealand freshwater mussel Echyridella menziesii were used to investigate the short-term effects (7–8 days) of food type on rates of biodeposition and benthic substrate respiration. Post-feeding biodeposition rates ranged from 0.34 to 1.52?mg?g^?1?h^?1 (mean?=?0.50?mg g^?1?h^?1) and were unaffected by the addition of toxin-producing Microcystis. Addition of suspended sediment (30?mg?L^?1) visibly altered substrate composition, and increased total and inorganic biodeposit production rates by 24–33% compared to mussels fed commercial phytoplankton stock. Biodeposition rates of mussels in lake bed substrates were 38% higher than those in silica sand for identical feeding regimes, suggesting that a significant proportion of material produced in this experiment could have been derived from feeding on organic matter in the lake bed sediments. Respiration rates were higher in treatments with Microcystis but were unaffected by the presence of mussels. This laboratory study suggests that biodeposition by E. menziesii is resilient to short-term exposure to Microcystis, and highlights the ability of mussels to alter benthic substrate composition by incorporating suspended sediment into substrates.     

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

Observed changes in pan-arctic cold-season minimum monthly river discharge

Recent changes in pan-arctic land-surface hydrology may significantly affect ecosystems and the built environment. While spatial and temporal patterns in land-surface hydrology trends can be identified using in situ observations of river discharge, the existing studies of cold-season river discharge are often inconsistent and incomparable because they use different methodologies, time periods and geographic regions. By using a comprehensive dataset of river discharge and a trend analysis applying one algorithm over a range of temporal and spatial scales, a synthesis of pan-arctic cold-season low-flow was performed. Cold-season low-flow is increasing over most of the pan-arctic, with decreasing flow in eastern North America and unchanged flow in small basins in the late twentieth century in eastern Eurasia as the main exceptions. This study provides the first synthesis of spatially distributed cold-season low-flow trends in the pan-arctic and indicates that widespread changes in pan-arctic subsurface hydrology are occurring.