A Bayesian palaeoenvironmental transfer function model for acidified lakes

A Bayesian approach to palaeoecological environmental reconstruction deriving from the unimodal responses generally exhibited by organisms to an environmental gradient is described. The approach uses Bayesian model selection to calculate a collection of probability-weighted, species-specific response curves (SRCs) for each taxon within a training set, with an explicit treatment for zero abundances. These SRCs are used to reconstruct the environmental variable from sub-fossilised assemblages. The approach enables a substantial increase in computational efficiency (several orders of magnitude) over existing Bayesian methodologies. The model is developed from the Surface Water Acidification Programme (SWAP) training set and is demonstrated to exhibit comparable predictive power to existing Weighted Averaging and Maximum Likelihood methodologies, though with improvements in bias; the additional explanatory power of the Bayesian approach lies in an explicit calculation of uncertainty for each individual reconstruction. The model is applied to reconstruct the Holocene acidification history of the Round Loch of Glenhead, including a reconstruction of recent recovery derived from sediment trap data. The Bayesian reconstructions display similar trends to conventional (Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares) reconstructions but provide a better reconstruction of extreme pH and are more sensitive to small changes in diatom assemblages. The validity of the posteriors as an apparently meaningful representation of assemblage-specific uncertainty and the high computational efficiency of the approach open up the possibility of highly constrained multiproxy reconstructions.     

Experimental validation of a simplified model for rolling isolation systems

Rolling isolation systems (RISs) protect mission‐critical equipment and valuable property from earthquake hazards by decoupling the dynamic responses of vibration‐sensitive objects from horizontal floor motions. These responses involve the constrained rolling of steel balls between bowl‐shaped surfaces. The light damping of steel balls rolling between steel plates can be augmented by adhering thin rubber sheets to the plates, thereby increasing the rolling resistance and decreasing the displacement demand on the RIS. An assessment of the ability of lightly‐ and heavily‐damped RISs to mitigate the hazard of seismically induced failures requires high‐fidelity models that can adequately capture the systems' intrinsic nonlinear behavior. The simplified model presented in this paper is applicable to RISs with any potential energy function, is amenable to both lightly‐ and heavily‐damped RISs, and is validated through the successful prediction of peak responses for a wide range of disturbance frequencies and intensities. The validated model can therefore be used to compute the spectra of peak floor motions for which displacement demands equal capacity. These spectra are compared with representative floor motion spectra provided by the American Society of Civil Engineers 7–10. The damping provided by rolling between thin viscoelastic sheets increases the allowable floor motion intensity by a factor of 2–3, depending on the period of motion. Acceleration responses of isolation systems with damping supplied in this fashion do not grow with increased damping, even for short‐period excitations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detecting changing river temperatures in England and Wales

Changes in water temperature can have important consequences for aquatic ecosystems, with some species being sensitive even to small shifts in temperature during some or all of their life cycle. While many studies report increasing regional and global air temperatures, evidence of changes in river water temperature has, thus far, been site specific and often from sites heavily influenced by human activities that themselves could lead to warming. Here we present a tiered assessment of changing river water temperature covering England and Wales with data from 2773 locations. We use novel statistical approaches to detect trends in irregularly sampled spot measurements taken between 1990 and 2006. During this 17‐year period, on average, mean water temperature increased by 0.03 °C per year (±0.002 °C), and positive changes in water temperature were observed at 2385 (86%) sites. Examination of catchments where there has been limited human influence on hydrological response shows that changes in river flow have had little influence on these water temperature trends. In the absence of other systematic influences on water temperature, it is inferred that anthropogenically driven climate change is driving some of this trend in water temperature. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Intraplate deformation adjacent to the Macquarie Ridge south of New Zealand—The tectonic evolution of a complex plate boundary

The distribution of relocated seismicity and the evolving shape of fracture zones through time in the oceanic crust of the Australian Plate adjacent to the Australia:Pacific plate boundary south of New Zealand are used to constrain the deformation of this region of the Australian Plate, here called the Puysegur Block. Relocated seismicity reveals a broad distribution of earthquakes in the Puysegur Block on both inter- and intraplate structures, including two great (M8+) earthquakes in the region over the past twenty years, one of which occurred over 130 km from the plate boundary. Plate reconstructions from the Late Oligocene through Early–Mid Miocene allow us to determine the undeformed shape of fracture zones in the Puysegur Block, formed during the Paleogene when the plate boundary was dominantly a divergent mid-ocean ridge system. Comparing these reconstructions to the present-day shape of the fracture zones allows us to map the deformation that has occurred within the Puysegur Block since the fracture zones formed. These two sets of independent observations delineate a broad zone of deformation extending ~ 150 km into the plate interior from the Macquarie Ridge Complex, the modern plate boundary structure through the region. The persistence of this deformation through time indicates a link with the evolution of the plate boundary over the past ~ 25 Ma from divergence to translation and subduction of the Australian Plate further north at the Puysegur Trench. We infer that this deformation may be a result of stresses in the Puysegur Block resulting from the impingement of the subducting plate on the thickened lithosphere of southern New Zealand. Such a collision may resist subduction, and if resistance remains substantial, further deformation internal to the Puysegur Block may lead to a southward migration of the Australia:Pacific subduction interface and the capturing of this section of lithosphere onto the Pacific Plate.     

Population biology of coral trout species in eastern Torres Strait: Implications for fishery management

Coral trout (Plectropomus spp.) are the main target species for commercial fishers in the eastern Torres Strait Reef Line Fishery (ETS RLF). The four species of coral trout known to occur in Torres Strait: Plectropomus leopardus, Plectropomus maculatus, Plectropomus areolatus and Plectropomus laevis are currently managed as a single species in Torres Strait, as there is no species-specific biological information available for the region which could be used to assess whether species differ in their response to fishing pressure. The aim of our study was to determine whether it is appropriate (biologically) to manage coral trout in the ETS RLF as a single species group or whether different management arrangements are required for some species. We used catch data and biological data from samples collected by commercial fishers to examine the distribution within Torres Strait and estimate a range of biological parameters for P. leopardus, P. maculatus and P. areolatus. Insufficient P. laevis samples were collected to reliably examine this species. Results indicated that the population biology, particularly the reproductive biology, of P. areolatus was substantially different to both P. leopardus and P. maculatus. Although it is difficult to predict the response to fishing, P. areolatus may be more vulnerable to fishing than P. leopardus and P. maculatus, due to the larger size at sex change observed for this species and the very low proportion of males protected by the current minimum size limit. Therefore, while the common management arrangements for P. leopardus and P. maculatus appear to be adequate for these species, separate management arrangements are needed for the sustainable harvest of P. areolatus populations in the ETS. Specifically, we recommend the introduction of a maximum size limit for P. areolatus, in addition to the current minimum size limit, which may allow a proportion of males some protection from fishing.     

Investigations of the bottom current sculpted margin of Hatton Bank, NE Atlantic

The northwest Hatton Bank margin is an ideal locality to demonstrate the interaction between bottom currents and slope configuration in controlling the distribution and morphology of bottom current deposits. The slope area investigated is isolated from any major terrigenous sediment supply and at present is influenced by the Deep Northern Boundary Current (DNBC). Swath bathymetry and high resolution acoustic data allow us to evaluate both local and regional controls on slope sedimentation and the possible mechanisms for bottom-current velocity variability across a slope setting within the NW European continental margin. The slope exhibits sculpting by bottom currents that flow in a predominantly southwest to northeast direction, and is only locally modified by slope failures. Positive relief features such as the Endymion Spur play an important role in constraining and accelerating bottom-current flow and, consequently, in redistributing sediment along the margin. We demonstrate that the size, morphology and distribution of bottom-current deposits along the slope vary as a function of the interaction between bottom currents, regional slope orientation and local seafloor topography.     

Seasonal controls on sediment transport and deposition in Lake Ohau,South Island,New Zealand: Implications for a high‐resolution Holocene palaeoclimate reconstruction

Laminated sediments in Lake Ohau, Mackenzie Basin, New Zealand, offer a potential high‐resolution climate record for the past 17 kyr. Such records are particularly important due to the relative paucity of detailed palaeoclimate data from the Southern Hemisphere mid‐latitudes. This paper presents outcomes of a study of the sedimentation processes of this temperate lake setting. Hydrometeorological, limnological and sedimentological data were collected over a 14 month period between 2011 and 2013. These data indicate that seasonality in the hydrometeorological system in combination with internal lake dynamics drives a distinct seasonal pattern of sediment dispersal and deposition on a basin‐wide scale. Sedimentary layers that accumulate proximal to the lake inflow at the northern end of the lake form in response to discrete inflow events throughout the year and display an event stratigraphy. In contrast, seasonal change in the lake system controls accumulation of light (winter) and dark (summer) laminations at the distal end of the lake, resulting in the preservation of varves. This study documents the key processes influencing sediment deposition throughout Lake Ohau and provides fundamental data for generating a high‐resolution palaeoclimate record from this temperate lake.     

A search for electron cyclotron maser emission from compact binaries

Unipolar induction (UI) is a fundamental physical process, which occurs when a conducting body transverses a magnetic field. It has been suggested that UI is operating in RX J0806+15 and RX J1914+24, which are believed to be ultracompact binaries with orbital periods of 5.4 and 9.6 min, respectively. The UI model predicts that those two sources may be electron cyclotron maser sources at radio wavelengths. Other systems in which UI has been predicted to occur are short period extrasolar terrestrial planets with conducting cores. If UI is present, circularly polarized radio emission is predicted to be emitted. We have searched for this predicted radio emission from short period binaries using the Very Large Array (VLA) and Australian Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). In one epoch, we find evidence for a radio source, coincident in position with the optical position of RX J0806+15. Although we cannot completely exclude that this is a chance alignment between the position of RX J0806+15 and an artefact in the data reduction process, the fact that it was detected at a significance level of 5.8σ and found to be transient suggests that it is more likely that RX J0806+15 is a transient radio source. We find an upper limit on the degree of circular polarization to be ∼50 per cent. The inferred brightness temperature exceeds 10¹⁸ K, which is too high for any known incoherent process, but is consistent with maser emission and UI being the driving mechanism. We did not detect radio emission from ES Cet, RX J1914+24 or Gliese 876.