Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.     

Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.     

Impact of Doppler Radar Wind in Simulating the Intensity and Propagation of Rainbands Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Using MM5-3DVAR System

Pre-monsoon rainfall around Kolkata (northeastern part of India) is mostly of convective origin as 80% of the seasonal rainfall is produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Accurate prediction of the intensity and structure of these convective cloud clusters becomes challenging, mostly because the convective clouds within these clusters are short lived and the inaccuracy in the models initial state to represent the mesoscale details of the true atmospheric state. Besides the role in observing the internal structure of the precipitating systems, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) provides an important data source for mesoscale and microscale weather analysis and forecasting. An attempt has been made to initialize the storm-scale numerical model using retrieved wind fields from single Doppler radar. In the present study, Doppler wind velocities from the Kolkata Doppler weather radar are assimilated into a mesoscale model, MM5 model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for the prediction of intense convective events that occurred during 0600 UTC on 5 May and 0000 UTC on 7 May, 2005. In order to evaluate the impact of the DWR wind data in simulating these severe storms, three experiments were carried out. The results show that assimilation of Doppler radar wind data has a positive impact on the prediction of intensity, organization and propagation of rain bands associated with these mesoscale convective systems. The assimilation system has to be modified further to incorporate the radar reflectivity data so that simulation of the microphysical and thermodynamic structure of these convective storms can be improved.     

The Indo-Australian monsoon and its relationship to ENSO and IOD in reanalysis data and the CMIP3/CMIP5 simulations

A large spread exists in both Indian and Australian average monsoon rainfall and in their interannual variations diagnosed from various observational and reanalysis products. While the multi model mean monsoon rainfall from 59 models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) fall within the observational uncertainty, considerable model spread exists. Rainfall seasonality is consistent across observations and reanalyses, but most CMIP models produce either a too peaked or a too flat seasonal cycle, with CMIP5 models generally performing better than CMIP3. Considering all North-Australia rainfall, most models reproduce the observed Australian monsoon-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection, with the strength of the relationship dependent on the strength of the simulated ENSO. However, over the Maritime Continent, the simulated monsoon-ENSO connection is generally weaker than observed, depending on the ability of each model to realistically reproduce the ENSO signature in the Warm Pool region. A large part of this bias comes from the contribution of Papua, where moisture convergence seems to be particularly affected by this SST bias. The Indian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship is affected by overly persistent ENSO events in many CMIP models. Despite significant wind anomalies in the Indian Ocean related to Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, the monsoon-IOD relationship remains relatively weak both in the observations and in the CMIP models. Based on model fidelity in reproducing realistic monsoon characteristics and ENSO teleconnections, we objectively select 12 “best” models to analyze projections in the rcp8.5 scenario. Eleven of these models are from the CMIP5 ensemble. In India and Australia, most of these models produce 5–20 % more monsoon rainfall over the second half of the twentieth century than during the late nineteenth century. By contrast, there is no clear model consensus over the Maritime Continent.     

Drought analysis in the Tons River Basin,India during 1969-2008

The primary focus of this study is the analysis of droughts in the Tons River Basin during the period 1969–2008. Precipitation data observed at four gauging stations are used to identify drought over the study area. The event of drought is derived from the standardized precipitation index (SPI) on a 3-month scale. Our results indicated that severe drought occurred in the Allahabad, Rewa, and Satna stations in the years 1973 and 1979. The droughts in this region had occurred mainly due to erratic behavior in monsoons, especially due to long breaks between monsoons. During the drought years, the deficiency of the annual rainfall in the analysis of annual rainfall departure had varied from ?26% in 1976 to ?60% in 1973 at Allahabad station in the basin. The maximum deficiency of annual and seasonal rainfall recorded in the basin is 60%. The maximum seasonal rainfall departure observed in the basin is in the order of ?60% at Allahabad station in 1973, while maximum annual rainfall departure had been recorded as ?60% during 1979 at the Satna station. Extreme dry events (z score <?2) were detected during July, August, and September. Moreover, severe dry events were observed in August, September, and October. The drought conditions in the Tons River Basin are dominantly driven by total rainfall throughout the period between June and November.     

PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: PAST THEMES, CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE TRENDS

Our knowledge regarding the physical geography of Southeast Asia is incomplete to a surprising extent. This paper reviews the past research, describes the ongoing work, and attempts to identify the future trends. Coverage of such a large area, even for the last 25 years, requires study of publications in several languages and coping with literature which is not easily available. Therefore certain topics. which are prominent in current research and likely to remain so in the future were chosen and reviewed in detail. Such topics include studies related to active plate margin features; the Pleistocene in Southeast Asia; erosion and sedimentation rates; rainforest; river systems; karst in Southeast Asia; coastal geomorphology; and the urban environment. Environmental studies are rapidly gaining importance chiefly because of (a) the destruction of the natural vegetation and the associated loss of biodiversity and (b) the growing problems due to accelerated erosion and sedimentation This trend is likely to continue with accelerated destruction of forests, development of coastal areas, and urbanization of the landscape The direction of research in physical geography of Southeast Asia has been determined by a combination of individual research interest, governmental priorities, and international expectations     

Open-source support toward validating and falsifying discrete mechanics models using synthetic granular materials—Part I: Experimental tests with particles manufactured by a 3D printer

Acta Geotechnica - This article presents a new test prototype that leverages the 3D printing technique to create artificial particle assembles to provide auxiliary evidences that supports the...     

Monitoring surface elevation changes in Jharia coalfield,India using synthetic aperture radar interferometry

This paper investigates surface elevation changes that occurred during 1996–2004 in the Jharia coalfield through the digital elevation model (DEM) generated using synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) using ERS-1/2 (European Remote Sensing Satellite) tandem and RADARSAT-1 data. The comparison of elevation values derived from the InSAR DEM and topographic height data shows a bias of 23.08 m with root-mean-square error of ±2.31 m (5.8 %). The accuracy of the DEM was investigated by comparing the elevation profiles with the digitized elevation contour data at four different locations. The profile comparison shows a mean bias of 22.68 m. Local topography shows changes in elevation up to ±40.00 m due to mining activities on the 8-year time period. The results of InSAR-derived heights and topographic heights were comparable and well-matched except at a few locations where topographic data were unavailable. DEM generated using InSAR due to its high spatial details is ideal for the detection and estimation of surface elevation changes in mining areas.     

Appraisal of land use/land cover of mangrove forest ecosystem using support vector machine

Human activities in many parts of the world have greatly changed the natural land cover. This study has been conducted on Pichavaram forest, south east coast of India, famous for its unique mangrove bio-diversity. The main objectives of this study were focused on monitoring land cover changes particularly for the mangrove forest in the Pichavaram area using multi-temporal Landsat images captured in the 1991, 2000, and 2009. The land use/land cover (LULC) estimation was done by a unique hybrid classification approach consisting of unsupervised and support vector machine (SVM)-based supervised classification. Once the vegetation and non-vegetation classes were separated, training site-based classification technology i.e., SVM-based supervised classification technique was used. The agricultural area, forest/plantation, degraded mangrove and mangrove forest layers were separated from the vegetation layer. Mud flat, sand/beach, swamp, sea water/sea, aquaculture pond, and fallow land were separated from non-vegetation layer. Water logged areas were delineated from the area initially considered under swamp and sea water-drowned areas. In this study, the object-based post-classification comparison method was employed for detecting changes. In order to evaluate the performance, an accuracy assessment was carried out using the randomly stratified sampling method, assuring distribution in a rational pattern so that a specific number of observations were assigned to each category on the classified image. The Kappa accuracy of SVM classified image was highest (94.53 %) for the 2000 image and about 94.14 and 89.45 % for the 2009 and 1991 images, respectively. The results indicated that the increased anthropogenic activities in Pichavaram have caused an irreversible loss of forest vegetation. These findings can be used both as a strategic planning tool to address the broad-scale mangrove ecosystem conservation projects and also as a tactical guide to help managers in designing effective restoration measures.     

Reliability Analysis of Earth Slopes Considering Spatial Variability

The paper presents a computational procedure for reliability analysis of earth slopes considering spatial variability of soils under the framework of the Limit Equilibrium Method. In the reliability analysis of earth slopes, the effect of spatial variability of soil properties is generally included indirectly by assuming that the probabilistic critical slip surface is the same as that determined without considering spatial variability. In contrast to this indirect approach, in the direct approach, the effect of spatial variability is included in the process of determination of the probabilistic critical surface itself. While the indirect approach requires much less computational effort, the direct approach is definitely more rigorous. In this context this paper attempts to investigate, with the help of numerical examples, how far away are the results obtained from the indirect approach from that obtained from the direct approach. In both the approaches, it is required to use a model of discretization of random fields into finite random variables. A few such models are available in the literature for one-dimensional (1D) as well as two-dimensional (2D) spatial variability. The developed computational scheme is based on the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) coupled with the Spencer Method of Slices valid for limit equilibrium analysis of general slip surfaces. The study includes bringing out the computational advantages and disadvantages of the three commonly used discretization models. The sensitivity of the reliability index to the magnitudes of the scales of fluctuation has also been studied.