Analysis of a regional change in the sign of the SAM�Ctemperature relationship in Antarctica

This study examines regional atmospheric circulation changes associated with a reversal in the sign of the relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and near-surface temperatures at Halley station, East Antarctica, during the 1980s. We show that the key factor affecting the regional SAM?Ctemperature relationship (STR) is the relative magnitude of two climatological low pressure centres to the west and east of the area, which determines the source region of air masses advected into the locality. The principal difference affecting the STR is shown to be a trend towards a significantly weaker climatological low (higher pressure) at ~20°E during a positive phase of the SAM. Specifically, it is variations in the phase and magnitude of the wave number three patterns of atmospheric circulation, the non-annular component of the SAM, which are the principal factors governing the regional STR. A similar reversal is observed in the sign of the correlation between the SAM and oxygen-isotope values from an ice core located some 1,200?km east of Halley. This relationship is examined throughout the 20th Century, by comparing the isotope data to SAM reconstructions, and demonstrates marked decadal variability. Thus, these data suggest that switches in the STR are more likely to reflect natural variability in the long-wave patterns over the Southern Ocean rather than the influence of an anthropogenic forcing. This finding is important when considering the potential utility of Antarctic isotope data as a proxy for the SAM.     

Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system

Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.     

Climate justice and global cities: Mapping the emerging discourses

Ever since climate change came to be a matter of political concern, questions of justice have been at the forefront of academic and policy debates in the international arena. Curiously, as attention has shifted to other sites and scales of climate change politics matters of justice have tended to be neglected. In this paper, we examine how discourses of justice are emerging within urban responses to climate change. Drawing on a database of initiatives taking place in 100 global cities and qualitative case-study research in Philadelphia, Quito and Toronto, we examine how notions of distributive and procedural justice are articulated in climate change projects and plans in relation to both adaptation and mitigation. We find that there is limited explicit concern with justice at the urban level. However, where discourses of justice are evident there are important differences emerging between urban responses to adaptation and mitigation, and between those in the north and in the south. Adaptation responses tend to stress the distribution of ‘rights’ to protection, although those in the South also stress the importance of procedural justice. Mitigation responses also stress ‘rights’ to the benefits of responding to climate change, with limited concern for ‘responsibilities’ or for procedural justice. Intriguingly, while adaptation responses tend to stress the rights of individuals, we also find discourses of collective rights emerging in relation to mitigation.     

Recent and projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and the potential impacts on growth and alkaloid production in wild poppy (Papaver setigerum DC.)

In the current study, we quantified changes in the growth and alkaloid content of wild poppy, (Papaver setigerum) as a function of recent and projected changes in global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, [CO₂]. The experimental [CO₂] values (300, 400, 500 and 600μmol mol^?1) correspond roughly to the concentrations that existed during the middle of the twentieth century, the current concentration, and near and long-term projections for the current century (2050 and 2090), respectively. Additional carbon dioxide resulted in significant increases in leaf area and above ground biomass for P. setigerum at all [CO₂] relative to the 300μmol mol^?1 baseline. Reproductively, increasing [CO₂] from 300 to 600μmol mol^?1 increased the number of capsules, capsule weight and latex production by 3.6, 3.0 and 3.7×, respectively, on a per plant basis. Quantification of secondary compounds (i.e. those not involved in primary metabolism) included the alkaloids morphine, codeine, papaverine and noscapine. The amount of all alkaloids increased significantly on a per plant basis, with the greatest relative increase occurring with recent increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (e.g. from 300 to 400μmol mol^?1). Overall, these data suggest that as atmospheric [CO₂] continues to increase, significant effects on the production of secondary plant compounds of pharmacological interest (i.e. opiates) could be expected.     

Global distribution of the intensity and frequency of hourly precipitation and their responses to ENSO

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the global distribution of hourly precipitation and its connections with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using both satellite precipitation...     

An evaluation of flow-stratified sampling for estimating suspended sediment loads

Flow-stratified sampling is a new method for sampling water quality constituents such as suspended sediment to estimate loads. As with selection-at-list-time (SALT) and time-stratified sampling, flow-stratified sampling is a statistical method requiring random sampling, and yielding unbiased estimates of load and variance. It can be used to estimate event yields or to estimate mean concentrations in flow classes for detecting change over time or differences from water quality standards. Flow-stratified sampling is described and its variance compared with those of SALT and time-stratified sampling. Time-stratified sampling generally gives the smallest variance of the three methods for estimating storm yields. Flow-stratified sampling of individual storms may fail to produce estimates in some short-lived strata because they may have sample sizes of zero. SALT will tend to give small samples and relatively high variances for small stroms. For longer and more complex hydrographs, having numerous peaks, flow-stratified sampling gives the lowest variance, and the SALT variance is lower than that of time-stratified sampling unless the sample size is very large. A desirable feature of flow-stratified sampling is that the variance can be reduced after sampling by splitting strata, particularly high flow strata that have been visited just once, and recalculating the total and variance. SALT has the potential to produce the lowest variance, but cannot be expected to do so with an auxiliary variable based on stage.     

Enhanced bed load sediment transport by unsteady flows in a degrading channel

Laboratory flume experiments were done to investigate bed load sediment transport by both steady and unsteady flows in a degrading channel. The bed, respectively composed of uniform sand, uniform gravel, or sand-gravel mixtures, always undergoes bulk degradation. It is found that both uniform and non-uniform bed load transport is enhanced greatly by unsteady flows as compared to their volume-equivalent steady flows. This enhancement effect is evaluated by means of an enhancement factor, which is shown to be larger with a coarser bed and lower discharges. Also, the fractional transport rates of gravel and sand in non-uniform sand-gravel mixtures are compared with their uniform counterparts under both steady and unsteady flows. The sand is found to be able to greatly promote the transport of gravel, whilst the gravel considerably hinders the transport of sand. Particularly, the promoting and hindering impacts are more pronounced at lower discharges and tend to be weakened by flow unsteadiness.     

Extracting water-related features using reflectance data and principal component analysis of Landsat images

This study aimed to map water features using a Landsat image rather than traditional land cover. We involved the original bands, spectral indices and principal components (PCs) of a principal component analysis (PCA) as input data, and performed random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) classification with water, saturated soil and non-water categories. The aim was to compare the efficiency of the results based on various input data. Original bands provided 93% overall accuracy (OA) and bands 4–5–7 were the most informative in this analysis. Except for MNDWI (modified normalized differenced water index, with 98% OA), the performance of all water indices was between 60 and 70% (OA). The PCA-based approach conducted on the original bands resulted in the most accurate identification of all classes (with only 1% error in the case of water bodies). We therefore show that both water bodies and saturated soils can be identified successfully using this approach.