一种台风路径相似检索的算法研究

台风路径可视为二维平面上的一段曲线，根据两条台风路径曲线的相似离度可以判断其数值相似和形态相似的程度。由于直接应用台风基本资料进行相似离度计算有一定的难度和局限性，需要研究利用相似离度原理判断两条台风路径曲线相似程度的计算方法。按照设计的算法处理台风基本资料，可以确定两条台风路径曲线上的对应控制点，得到两条曲线对应控制点之间的距离和距离偏差的方向，最终只需在一个方向计算相似离度就能直接分析两条曲线的相似性。对相似台风进行检索的实例表明，该算法是可行的，能够从台风基本资料库中检索出与当前台风路径最相似的台风个例。     

流域面雨量的一种估算方法—网格插值法

针对近年来渭河防汛的严峻形势,为搞好防汛气象服务,采用面雨量的3种估算方法,对2003年渭河大洪灾中4次洪峰时期渭河流域面雨量的实际估算和对比分析,结果表明网格插值法的估算精度优于等值线法和算术平均法,运用网格插值法估算渭河流域面雨量是可行的。     

天山公路沿线年降水量分布特征及其变化趋势

以天山公路沿线9个气象水文站1956～2005年年降水量资料为依据,采用均值统计参数和线性方程分析了天山公路沿线年降水量分布特征以及变化趋势,在此基础上,应用小波分析方法对天山公路沿线各桩号代表站年降水量做周期分析,结果表明:天山公路沿线多数路段的年降水时间序列包含了多个不同时间尺度的周期变化和演变特征,具有10～17a、8～9a以及5a以下的周期变化,10～30a时间尺度突变点多出现于20世纪80年代熏     

江西、湖南深秋暴雨 西北、华北干旱严重——2005年11月——

11月份，全国平均降水量为25．4mm，接近常年同期（26．3mm）。全国平均气温为6．8℃，比常年同期（5．2℃）偏高1．6℃，为1951年以来的历史同期第四高值。月内，江西、湖南部分地区降水明显偏多，造成暴雨洪涝灾害；南方部分地区旱情月内出现缓解；华北大部、西北地区东北部等地由于降水偏少，旱情持续或发展；中东部地区出现大雾天气；青海南部雪灾较为严重，内蒙古中东部等地出现沙尘天气；江南、西南东部、华南北部等地出现持续阴雨寡照天气。     

转移概率预报方法在霜冻预报中的应用

本文在简介转移概率预报方法及最大概率预报原理的基础上,分析了吕梁市1957年～2000年霜冻初、终日期各随机时间序列状态之间的转换规律,结合各序列的初始分布,建立预报模型,并对1995年～2004年的初、终霜日期进行了预报效果检验。结果表明,该方法预报效果好,使用性强,具有良好的应用前景。     

一种Delaunay三角网的快速生成算法

本文以Lawson提出的逐点插入法为基础，借鉴方向搜索的思想，在确定插入点的影响凸包时，采用递归的局部搜索策略，形成了一种Delaunay三角网的快速生成算法。实验证明，新算法构网时间与点数基本成线性增长关系，具有较高的效率。     

Geophysical survey on the tectonic and sediment distribution of Qinghai Lake basin

1 Introduction in China, with an area of 4400 km2 and a drainage area With the advancement of global change study, peo- of nearly 29,660 km2[2]. Occurring at a “climatic triple ple are paying more and more attention to the conti- junction” among the East Asian monsoon, Indian nental environment (in which we reside), its evolution Monsoon and the Westerly Jet Stream, it lies in the and its future tendency. As a component of the global transitional belt of the east monsoonal humid areas sys…     

Miocene Bahean stratigraphy in the Longzhong Basin, northern central China and its implications in environmental change

Fossil mammal-riched Neogene strata are widely distributed in the southeast corner of the huge Longzhong Basin at Tianshui, Gansu Province, northern central China. Hipparion weihoense, a typical member of late Middle Miocene Bahean stage, was recently excavated at Yaodian along a well-exposed outcrop. Owing to the importance of the Bahean stage in the mammalian evolution and its potential for environmental change, we suggested a name of Yaodian Formation for the stratigra- phy, which is correlated to the Bahe Formation at Lantian, Shaanxi. High resolution paleomagnetic dating of the section shows that the Yaodian Formation covers the period between 11.67 Ma and 7.43 Ma, with the site bearing Hipparion weihoense being estimated at about 10.54―10.30 Ma, providing first magnetostratigraphic chronology for the Bahean Stage. The Yaodian Formation consists of fluvial channel deposits (11.67―10.40 Ma) at the bottom, floodplain deposits in the middle (10.40―9.23 Ma) and shallow lake sediments at the top (9.23―7.43 Ma). This upward fining sequence suggests that the relief in nearby mountain ranges such as West Qinling to the south and Huajia Ling to the north was greatly reduced after long-term denudation, fluvial transport capacity was low, and finally the drainage system was disintegrated, replaced with broad-shallow lakes in which only fine sediments like mud and marlite were deposited, indicating an old stage of development of a planation surface. A remarkable shift in ecology and climatic environment was found at 7.4―7.7 Ma when paleoclimate changed from early warm humid to late dry as indicated by sedimentary facies changed from early shallow lake sequence to late eolian red clays and a former coniferous-deciduous mixed forest was replaced by grassland, leading to great growth of Hipparion Fauna of Baodean stage in the region. Therefore, it is estimated that the present high relief of Qinling and drainage pattern did not come into being until Late Pliocene in response to intensive neotectonism and climate change.     

TSP在隧道超前地质预报的应用研究

由于隧道施工经常遇到严重的地质灾害,施工前进行超前地质预报是十分必要的。本文介绍了TSP超前地质预报系统的技术特点和基本原理,结合工程实例探讨了在使用TSP过程中的一些技术问题。结果显示利用工程地质调查结论可以确定合理的探测方案和提高TSP的预报精度。     

改进的传染型余震序列模型

将有限幂律公式（LPL）应用到传染型余震序列模型（ETAS）中，并对原ETAS模型加以改进。以台湾集集地震早期余震序列为例，对原ETAS模型与改进的ETAS模型进行了对比分析，结果表明改进的ETAS模型要优于原ETAS模型。